Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields remained stable during a holiday-shortened week, reversing much of the previous rise after the U.S. economy reported a 4.3% annual growth rate in Q3 [1] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The reported 4.3% annual growth in the U.S. economy for the third quarter contributed to a rise in two-year Treasury yields, reaching a 13-day high of 3.559% [1] - Investors adjusted their expectations regarding a potential interest-rate cut in January following the economic data release [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The economic data is considered backward-looking, prompting traders to remain vigilant for indicators of a weakening job market and slowing inflation [1]

All year, the jobs market, consumer sentiment, AI and inflation flashed economic warning signs — what does this mean for 2026? Listen to @sarahsholder @svaneksmith and @Markzandi on the Big Take podcast https://t.co/e1vy03yNRW https://t.co/Tid3NEIhqK ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut does not directly lead to a decrease in mortgage rates, which are more closely aligned with the long-term 10-year Treasury yield rather than the federal funds rate [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut in 2025 has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, primarily due to a weakening jobs market [2]. - The Fed has indicated that further rate cuts are on hold, projecting only one quarter-percentage-point cut in 2026 as it aims to control inflation and maximize employment [2]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Trends - Following the Fed's rate cut, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.3% on Wednesday, down from 6.35% on Tuesday, and further fell to 6.26% on Thursday [3]. - Despite the Fed's rate cuts, current mortgage rates have increased from 6.13% in late October [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Trump administration's trade war and tariffs are expected to slow economic growth and maintain elevated inflation levels, with tariffs resulting in an average tax increase of $1,100 per household in 2025 and $1,400 in 2026 [5]. - Experts caution that lowering the federal funds rate could lead to negative economic consequences, such as higher unemployment and job losses, which may deter consumers from committing to large financial decisions like mortgages [6]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates - Mortgage rates are influenced by various economic factors, including the jobs market, inflation, geopolitical events, lender capacity, and borrower demand, rather than solely by the Fed's control over short-term interest rates [7].

Welcome back. Major indices rebounding off those session lows at the open this morning, trying to save off some back-to-back weekly losses. Should we be treating this as a buying opportunity.Joining us this morning, Wilmington Trust chief investment strategist Megan Shu is with us. Help make some sense of this Friday. Megan, what is your sense about where we are and what needs to happen to bring more stability, get that VIX a little bit lower.Um, yeah, Carl, I think actually in the short term, a little bit ...

COMPONENT. IF THEY ARE BECOMING LONG-DURATION ASSETS THEY WILL SWING WITH RATES. JONATHAN: TO THE FORCES I AM TALKING ABOUT PUT THE YEAR IN THE RALLY IN JEOPARDY.GEORGE: WE WILL GO THROUGH MANY CYCLES BEFORE WE GET TO THE TYPICAL YEAR END RALLY WHICH TYPICALLY KICKS OFF CLOSER TO THANKSGIVING INTO THE END OF THE YEAR. I THINK NOW WITH THE GOVERNMENT REOPENING WE WILL GET THE DATA. SOME DATA.NOT ALL OF IT. THE BURDEN OF PROOF IS THERE. YOU HAVE TO HAVE REALLY STRONG JOBS DATA TO TURN OFF THE FED.EVEN THOUGH ...

UK unemployment rose more than expected, further evidence of a cooling jobs market https://t.co/HPBuYQB7Ek ...

Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with some indicators suggesting conditions near recession levels [1][3] - Employment growth appears to be close to zero, potentially stabilizing at pre-shutdown levels [5][6] - Job openings and hiring are weak and potentially weakening, as indicated by Indeed numbers [6] - Layoff announcements, as summarized by the Challenger measure, are raising concerns [7][10] Economic Outlook - GDP is considered "doing okay" at 36%, but is distorted by front-loading effects and changes in inventories [8] - The labor market numbers are considered a more reliable measure of the economy's current state than GDP [9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation numbers have been generally encouraging, despite the pass-through from tariffs [13][14] - The analyst remains comfortable with the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December meeting [15] Technology Impact - There is a potential for a more significant and quicker impact from AI on the labor market than previously anticipated [11][12]

Robert Half issued profit guidance below analysts’ estimates, signaling that the global jobs market is continuing to soften https://t.co/kOHJmAHhDK ...

Core Insights - The UK government is facing pressure to find £30 billion in tax rises and spending cuts in the upcoming Budget, with warnings that further tax increases on businesses could severely impact the jobs market and economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Business Sentiment - 56% of employers indicated they would either cut jobs or freeze hiring if corporate taxes are raised again, highlighting a significant concern for the job market [2]. - Nearly half of the surveyed businesses have already reduced jobs or halted hiring due to previous tax increases, with the unemployment rate reaching a four-year high of 4.8% [3]. - Business confidence is described as fragile, with many firms citing high operating costs and uncertainty as major barriers to growth [5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The ICAEW warns that further tax hikes could jeopardize the UK's growth mission, with corporate tax increases potentially leading to a "damaging cliff edge" for the economy [2]. - Almost half of the firms surveyed are considering raising prices in response to higher taxes, and two in five plan to cut investment [4]. - Inflation is currently at 3.8%, nearly double the Bank of England's target, which is exacerbated by a deteriorating labor market [5][6].

UK bonds jumped and investors bet on more Bank of England interest-rate reductions after Governor Andrew Bailey flagged a weaker jobs market https://t.co/fMCY3Lgi83 ...