All right. So, you put the odds of a shutdown at 70%. Why do you see this as uh such a high probability event possibly coming up and we know that the top congressional leaders are meeting with the president today and there are there are some bipartisan interest to avoid this shutdown.>> Yeah, that's exactly right. And I would say that my 70% odds are actually low versus Hill staff that I speak with for the last several weeks. I've been polling members of the House and the Senate D's and Rs saying, you know, ...

The jobs report proves the Fed is behind the curve again.They should cut 50 basis points or more in September. https://t.co/ZmIXCLNbQI ...

Really stoked for today's showWe're talking markets, the jobs report and crypto impactThen our convo with @BunchuBets about Billy Bets, their $1M raise and AI x sports betting via prediction marketsJoin us live at 10 am ET!FOMO HOUR (@fomohour):We have @BunchuBets from @BillyBets_ai on the show tomorrow!Join him, @farokh & @Tyler_Did_It @ 10am ET to chat:• Sports Prediction Markets• Market report• Daily news+ @yeet giveaway & moreUse referral link & follow the rules in the replies ↓ https://t.co/mbgQav1noU ...

Today is the biggest macro day of the month.🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate release:- Weak jobs + higher unemployment → Risk assets pump (crypto & stocks)- Strong jobs report → Fed likely delays cutsGET READY FOR VOLATILITY! https://t.co/xBfN3V1BT7 ...

Economic Indicators - Non-farm productivity jumps to 33%, exceeding expectations of under 3%, marking the best performance since the last quarter of 2023 [1] - Unit labor costs moderate to 1%, the smallest since a negative 15% in the third quarter of 2024 [2] - Initial jobless claims rise to 237000, up 8000 from a non-revised 229000, equaling the second to last week in June, with the higher one in mid-June at 246000 [2] - Continuing claims are slightly lower at 1940000, maintaining a string above 19 million, comparable to November 2021 [3] - The trade deficit comes in at approximately minus 78 billion, compared to a revised minus 59 billion previously [4] Market Reaction - Following the data release, the 10-year Treasury yield decreases by three basis points, moving from around 418% to 419% [4] Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims remain well-behaved, but exceeding 250000 would warrant greater scrutiny [4][5] - Government work week data has not deteriorated, remaining at or above 341% since the beginning of the year [5][6]

Market Expectations & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a potential rate cut, with initial euphoria possibly waning due to comments from a Fed president and resilient PMI data [2] - Expectations for a September rate cut have decreased to approximately 70% [3] - The market is awaiting Chair Powell's speech at 10:00 a m Eastern time for clarity on the Fed's stance, particularly regarding the labor market and inflation [1][3][4] - The investor community is particularly interested in whether the Fed will prioritize the jobs market over inflation, considering tariff-related price increases as potentially "transitory" [7] Economic Data & Analysis - Despite firming inflation, significant price increases expected from initial tariff deals have not materialized [6] - There have been massive revisions to jobs reports, including a large yearly revision of nearly 1 million jobs earlier in the year [6] - Carson Group's research indicates that historically, if the Fed cuts rates in September, the market tends to be down 1% the following month but up almost 13% the following year [9] Investment Strategies & Recommendations - The analysis suggests diversifying risk portfolios globally, by sector, and by factor, with a potential shift towards value investing [11] - Gold is suggested as a potential hedge against a weakening US dollar, especially as the Fed potentially enters a second phase of easing with GDP running at approximately 2% [12][14] - The expectation is for the Fed to implement a 25 basis points cut, primarily influenced by the labor market [11] Future Outlook - The key question is whether the market's expectation of two rate cuts by 2025 will be met or exceeded [10] - The US debt situation and its impact on the dollar's strength are significant factors influencing investment decisions [13]

Political Investigation - Attorney General Pam Bondi is calling for a grand jury expected to investigate Obama era officials' handling of the Russia interference in the 2016 election [1] - This investigation is viewed by Democrats as a distraction lacking in evidence [2] Economic Data and Reporting - The Trump administration is potentially shifting focus from disappointing economic headlines [3] - The president fired the official who oversees monthly job report data [3] - The president claimed, without evidence, that the jobs report showing a slowdown in hiring was rigged with fake political numbers [4] - Economists state that jobs data has become very unreliable [5] - The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reports are critical for policy makers and businesses making hiring and investment decisions [5] - Revisions to previous estimates in the report are typical and indicate a successful survey [6] - Trump's first BLS commissioner, William Beach, stated that it would be impossible for a commissioner to rig the jobs data [7]

The fallout continues after President Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics following a dismal jobs report. Joining us right now is White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset. Uh Kevin, want to thank you for joining us.Um let's just start with with a very basic question. Um the president said on Friday that he believed that these numbers were rigged, that they were politically motivated. Do you believe that to be true.You know, as an economist, I like to go for what ...

After a weak jobs report on Friday, Donald Trump said he would fire the Bureau of Labour Statistics commissioner responsible—a remarkable act of political interference. Our ten charts show what can still be gleaned from the data https://t.co/WQtYqqcm9A ...

Government Influence & Data Integrity - The president fired the statistician due to disagreement with accurate numbers, raising concerns about data manipulation [1] - The president or other officials terminated the director because of dissatisfaction with the numbers [1] - Trump attacked Erica McInterer, commissioner of the BLS, claiming reports were rigged [2] Market Reaction - Uncertainty caused by the situation sent markets into a tailspin [2] - Wall Street experienced its worst day in months due to new tariffs and poor jobs report [2] Employment Data - A weak jobs report indicated a clear slowdown in the job market [1] - The head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was terminated shortly after the release of the weak jobs report [1]