Bad news is good news right now because the market wants to see Fed cuts. Is this jobs report going to push the Fed to cut again in January. I don't think so.I think basically at this point, it's going to leave them cautious, but they're going to want to see the December numbers because it's very hard to make a lot out of this a continuous narrative. What we got was a total of 64,000 jobs created in the month of November. And in the month of October, we lost 105,000 and 162,000 of those were government jobs ...

Now to the economy. Mixed signals from a long-awaited jobs report sewing confusion within an already divided Federal Reserve casting doubts about the outlook for December. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance striking a new tone when it comes to the economy, pleading for patience as millions of Americans grapple with a growing affordability crisis.>> That there's a lot more work to do. And the thing that I'd ask for the American people is a little bit of patience. And as much progress as we've made, it's goin ...

With the government shutdown stopping surveys, the U.S. might never see October’s jobs report—leaving investors and economists in the dark. https://t.co/n1liDWwJFc ...

Government Shutdown Probability & Duration - The analyst estimates a 70% probability of a government shutdown, lower than the 90% perceived by Hill staff [1][2] - The duration of the shutdown is the key question, impacting the market and economic data releases [4] - The analyst anticipates a short-lived shutdown [8] Political Dynamics & Key Players - The meeting with the president is considered unproductive due to too many participants; focus should be on Leader Thun and Leader Schumer [4] - Senator Thun is crucial for Senate negotiations, needing 10-20 Democratic votes to pass a resolution [6][7] - Leader Johnson has the votes to pass a short-term continuing resolution in the House [6] Impact on Economic Data & Market Reaction - The release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data on Friday is critical for investors [8] - The White House has the functional ability to release the BLS data, making it a political choice [12] - Concerns exist regarding data publication integrity, given the BLS commissioner's dismissal and perceived executive influence [14] - The bond market is heavily focused on the jobs data for insights into interest rates [15]

The jobs report proves the Fed is behind the curve again.They should cut 50 basis points or more in September. https://t.co/ZmIXCLNbQI ...

Key Topics - Discussion on markets, jobs report, and crypto impact is scheduled [1] - Conversation with @BunchuBets about Billy Bets, their $1 million raise, and AI x sports betting via prediction markets is planned [1] Company & Investment - Billy Bets secured $1 million in funding [1] - Billy Bets focuses on AI x sports betting via prediction markets [1] Event Details - Live show at 10 am ET [1] - Discussion includes sports prediction markets, market report, and daily news [1] - A giveaway is planned [1]

Today is the biggest macro day of the month.🇺🇸 Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate release:- Weak jobs + higher unemployment → Risk assets pump (crypto & stocks)- Strong jobs report → Fed likely delays cutsGET READY FOR VOLATILITY! https://t.co/xBfN3V1BT7 ...

Economic Indicators - Non-farm productivity jumps to 33%, exceeding expectations of under 3%, marking the best performance since the last quarter of 2023 [1] - Unit labor costs moderate to 1%, the smallest since a negative 15% in the third quarter of 2024 [2] - Initial jobless claims rise to 237000, up 8000 from a non-revised 229000, equaling the second to last week in June, with the higher one in mid-June at 246000 [2] - Continuing claims are slightly lower at 1940000, maintaining a string above 19 million, comparable to November 2021 [3] - The trade deficit comes in at approximately minus 78 billion, compared to a revised minus 59 billion previously [4] Market Reaction - Following the data release, the 10-year Treasury yield decreases by three basis points, moving from around 418% to 419% [4] Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims remain well-behaved, but exceeding 250000 would warrant greater scrutiny [4][5] - Government work week data has not deteriorated, remaining at or above 341% since the beginning of the year [5][6]

Market Expectations & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a potential rate cut, with initial euphoria possibly waning due to comments from a Fed president and resilient PMI data [2] - Expectations for a September rate cut have decreased to approximately 70% [3] - The market is awaiting Chair Powell's speech at 10:00 a m Eastern time for clarity on the Fed's stance, particularly regarding the labor market and inflation [1][3][4] - The investor community is particularly interested in whether the Fed will prioritize the jobs market over inflation, considering tariff-related price increases as potentially "transitory" [7] Economic Data & Analysis - Despite firming inflation, significant price increases expected from initial tariff deals have not materialized [6] - There have been massive revisions to jobs reports, including a large yearly revision of nearly 1 million jobs earlier in the year [6] - Carson Group's research indicates that historically, if the Fed cuts rates in September, the market tends to be down 1% the following month but up almost 13% the following year [9] Investment Strategies & Recommendations - The analysis suggests diversifying risk portfolios globally, by sector, and by factor, with a potential shift towards value investing [11] - Gold is suggested as a potential hedge against a weakening US dollar, especially as the Fed potentially enters a second phase of easing with GDP running at approximately 2% [12][14] - The expectation is for the Fed to implement a 25 basis points cut, primarily influenced by the labor market [11] Future Outlook - The key question is whether the market's expectation of two rate cuts by 2025 will be met or exceeded [10] - The US debt situation and its impact on the dollar's strength are significant factors influencing investment decisions [13]

Political Investigation - Attorney General Pam Bondi is calling for a grand jury expected to investigate Obama era officials' handling of the Russia interference in the 2016 election [1] - This investigation is viewed by Democrats as a distraction lacking in evidence [2] Economic Data and Reporting - The Trump administration is potentially shifting focus from disappointing economic headlines [3] - The president fired the official who oversees monthly job report data [3] - The president claimed, without evidence, that the jobs report showing a slowdown in hiring was rigged with fake political numbers [4] - Economists state that jobs data has become very unreliable [5] - The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reports are critical for policy makers and businesses making hiring and investment decisions [5] - Revisions to previous estimates in the report are typical and indicate a successful survey [6] - Trump's first BLS commissioner, William Beach, stated that it would be impossible for a commissioner to rig the jobs data [7]