2025年5月17-18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳市盛大召开。主题论坛十以"全球资本市场展望 与发展"为主题，五位国内外专家学者各抒己见，为参会者带来一场精彩的思维碰撞。本场论坛由清华 大学五道口金融学院MBA中心提供学术支持。 图为活动现场 香港执业资深大律师、香港证券及期货事务监察委员会前主席梁定邦，中国国际贸易促进委员会原副会 长张慎峰，中国证券金融股份有限公司原董事长聂庆平，国家主权财富基金国际论坛CEO邓肯·邦菲尔德 围绕全球资本市场展开分享和交流。清华大学国家金融研究院副院长，清华大学五道口金融学院上市公 司研究中心主任王娴主持本场论坛。 梁定邦 香港执业资深大律师 香港证券及期货事务监察委员会前主席 梁定邦从国际化的角度回顾了香港市场和内地市场国际化的过程。他表示，资本市场全 球化概念发展较晚，直至上世纪70年代，全球多数国家资本市场以本土市场为主。制定 全球化国际规则时，他发现金融生态兼具科学性与政治经济性，前者是长期积累形成的 科学监管方法，后者受各地独特文化、政治等因素及政府政策影响。当时全球推动全球 化，美国注重市场选择、减少干预。产业生产制度才是全球化关键，中国虽成全球最 ...

Long-term Trend Analysis Framework - Structural driving factors include interest rate differentials, economic growth differences, and purchasing power parity (PPP) [1] - The Australian dollar to US dollar (AUD/USD) fell by 40% from 2011 to 2015 due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's continuous interest rate cuts [1] - OECD leading indicators show that when the US PMI exceeds the Eurozone by 3 percentage points, EUR/USD depreciates by an average of 5% annually [1] - The Taylor rule model can predict policy interest rate paths [1] - The US dollar has long-term deviations from PPP of about 15%, but it tends to revert to the mean over a 10-year cycle [1] Cyclical Analysis Models - The Kitchin cycle (3-4 years) reflects inventory adjustments affecting short-term fluctuations in commodity currencies [2] - The Juglar cycle (8-10 years) is driven by capital expenditure cycles impacting currency pairs like AUD/JPY [2] - The Kuznets cycle (15-25 years) shows a linkage between real estate cycles and currencies like CAD/CHF [2] - During the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle, the US dollar appreciated by an average of 12% from 1994 to 2000 [2] Quantitative Analysis Tools - Trend identification can be achieved through the crossover of 150-day and 300-day EMAs [3] - The ADX indicator confirms trend strength, with values above 25 indicating strong trends [3] - The Hurst exponent is used to assess trend persistence, with values greater than 0.5 indicating trend continuation [3] Practical Strategy Development - In an expansion phase, strategies include going long on commodity currencies and managing positions using the Kelly formula [5] - In a recession phase, strategies involve going long on USD/JPY and employing volatility strategies [5] Cutting-edge Research Areas - The impact of carbon border taxes on euro pricing and the correlation between the El Niño index and AUD/BRL are being studied [6] - The interaction between stablecoin liquidity and the offshore dollar market is a focus area [6] - Development of a Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) to analyze dynamic relationships with Middle Eastern currencies [6] Classic Case Reviews - The 1992 British pound crisis was influenced by rising German interest rates while the UK maintained its exchange rate mechanism [7] - The 2015 Swiss franc decoupling was a result of contradictions between the Swiss National Bank's balance sheet expansion and its exchange rate policy [7] - The 2020 pandemic caused a liquidity crisis in the dollar market, leading to a sudden collapse of carry trades [7] Summary - Effective long-term cycle analysis requires a multi-layered framework that includes macro factors, market structure, and behavioral finance [8] - A mixed strategy of 70% trend following and 30% cycle adjustment is recommended, with a focus on monitoring the US 10-year Treasury volatility index (MOVE) and global forex liquidity indicators (FXLI) as leading indicators [8] - Attention should be given to the global debt cycle, which has reached a historical peak of 327% of global GDP, impacting currency valuation systems [8]