Summary of LNG Tracker: Supply Wave Still On Track Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry, particularly the supply dynamics and price forecasts for European natural gas and LNG markets. Key Points Global LNG Supply Wave - 2025 marks the beginning of the largest global LNG supply wave, expected to last seven years, leading to a bearish cycle for European natural gas (TTF) and LNG (JKM) prices, projected to bottom in 2028/29 with averages below $5/mmBtu, over 50% lower than current prices [4][4][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The realized global LNG supply for 2025 is projected at 431 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), slightly below the previous expectation of 433 mtpa, with significant contributions from the US offsetting declines from Algeria and Indonesia due to rising domestic energy demands [4][4][4] - The forecast for global LNG supply growth from 2025 to 2030 is +193 mtpa, which is 45% of the 2025 global supply, significantly exceeding the expected demand growth in Asia of +144 mtpa [4][4][4] - A temporary price-driven curtailment of US LNG exports is anticipated to address the oversupply in 2028/29 [4][4][4] Regional Supply Insights - The US is expected to see a large ramp-up in LNG export capacity, with delays in export capacity starts in Canada, Congo, and Australia affecting the 2026 supply outlook [4][4][4] - Algeria's LNG export forecast has been lowered by 1 mtpa due to declining production and increased domestic competition [33][33][33] Price Forecasts - The report indicates that JKM prices have not fully aligned with TTF prices, resulting in a negative JKM-TTF spread [12][12][12] - The forecast for JKM prices has been adjusted down to $12.30/mmBtu for 2026, reflecting a bearish outlook [69][69][69] Future Projects and Investments - All but one of the supply projects in the forecast through 2029 have reached a Final Investment Decision (FID), indicating a strong commitment to future LNG supply growth [4][4][4] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming liquefaction projects, particularly in the US, which are expected to significantly increase global LNG supply by approximately 50% relative to 2024 by 2030 [37][37][37] Demand Recovery in Asia - A stronger recovery in Asia's LNG demand is anticipated for 2026/2027, with an expected increase of 14 mtpa, driven by a 5 mtpa increase in China and a 7 mtpa rise in Southeast Asia [41][41][41][43][43][43] Additional Insights - The report notes that the recent delays in LNG projects are expected to tighten early 2026 supply, but recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2026 [7][7][7] - The analysis includes a detailed breakdown of LNG supply and demand forecasts by region, highlighting the competitive landscape and potential bottlenecks in supply chains [70][70][70] This comprehensive overview of the LNG market provides critical insights into supply trends, price forecasts, and regional dynamics that are essential for investment decision-making in the energy sector.

Summary of LNG Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market, highlighting a significant supply wave expected to last seven years, starting in 2025 and peaking around 2030 [4][25]. Key Points Supply Dynamics - 2025 is projected to be the first year of the largest global LNG supply wave, with supply expected to average 431 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), slightly below the previous expectation of 433 mtpa [4][5]. - The U.S. is anticipated to lead the supply growth, with a notable ramp-up at the Plaquemines facility contributing to the overall supply despite some disruptions and delays in other regions [4][29]. - Global LNG supply growth from 2025 to 2030 is expected to increase by 193 mtpa, which is 45% of the 2025 global supply, significantly outpacing Asia's demand growth of 144 mtpa [4][7]. Price Forecasts - A bearish cycle for European natural gas prices (TTF) and LNG (JKM) is anticipated, with forecasts suggesting prices could drop below $5/mmBtu by 2028/29, more than 50% lower than current prices [4][66]. - The JKM-TTF spread has turned negative, indicating that JKM prices have not fully adjusted to the recent TTF price rally [12][20]. Demand Insights - Asia's LNG demand is expected to rise by 14 mtpa in 2026, driven by a 5 mtpa increase in China and a 7 mtpa rise in Southeast Asia [41][43]. - The demand response to low gas prices is estimated to be over 40 mtpa from China alone, indicating a potential shift in consumption patterns [4]. Regional Supply Challenges - Structural supply losses are anticipated from Algeria and Indonesia due to rising domestic energy demands, with Algeria's export forecast lowered by 1 mtpa for future years [4][34]. - Delays in export capacity starts in the U.S., Canada, Congo, and Australia have led to a slower start for global LNG supply in 2026, although recovery is expected by the second half of the year [4][10]. Future Projects - All but one of the supply projects in the forecast through 2029 have reached a Final Investment Decision (FID), indicating strong commitment to future supply growth [4][3]. - Upcoming liquefaction projects are expected to increase global LNG supply by approximately 50% relative to 2024 by 2030 [4][36]. Additional Insights - The U.S. LNG export contracts are projected to remain profitable only through 2027, with significant implications for future export strategies [22][24]. - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring the timing of liquefaction projects, as they are critical to balancing supply and demand in the LNG market [4][66]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of the LNG market.