Energy traders are watching US natural gas storage levels and price action closely after LNG exports hit a record 10.1% million metric tonses in October 2025. Meanwhile, CME natural gas futures have rallied for four consecutive weeks. The last time we had a 4-week rally in natural gas was between September 3rd and September 23rd of 2024.So, one might think this is just typical seasonal activity, and that's part of it. But the 2024 rally was 15.6% and the current move is already more than 65% stronger. The u ...

Company Overview - Expand Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:EXE) operates as an independent natural gas production company in the US, focusing on acquiring, exploring, and developing properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids [4] Analyst Ratings - Bank of America Securities analyst Kalei Akamine reiterated a Buy rating on Expand Energy with a price target of $136.00 on October 20 [1] - Wells Fargo analyst Sam Margolin initiated coverage with an Equal Weight rating and a price target of $120, projecting a structural change in US gas markets over the next decade that could raise the price floor and reduce risk due to increased demand from LNG exports and data centers [2] - William Blair analyst Neal Dingmann initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, highlighting Expand Energy's capacity to meet the growing demand for LNG and data center power, although no price target was provided [3] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the demand for LNG and the power consumption of data centers will significantly influence the natural gas market dynamics in the coming years, potentially benefiting companies like Expand Energy [2][3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, adjusted EPS increased by 50% and adjusted EBITDA rose by more than 46% compared to Q3 2024 [4][18] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $71 million, with adjusted net income at $73 million or $0.42 per share [18] - Adjusted gross margin percentage reached 73%, benefiting from a $9.9 million cash tax credit [13][14] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Contract operations revenue was $326 million in Q3 2025, up 2% from Q2 2025, driven by growth in horsepower and pricing [19] - Aftermarket services segment reported revenue of $56 million in Q3 2025, down from $65 million in Q2 2025 but up 20% from $47 million in Q3 2024 [20] - Adjusted gross margin for aftermarket services remained at 23%, consistent with previous guidance [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. natural gas infrastructure buildout continues to support robust performance, with expectations for growth in natural gas production in the low single digits [4][7] - Significant growth in U.S. LNG exports is anticipated, with demand expected to increase by more than 17 BCF/day by 2030 [8] - The compression industry is entering a durable upturn driven by natural gas demand growth and capital discipline across the energy sector [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive growth through customer experience, innovative technology, and returns-based capital allocation [6] - A growth CapEx of at least $250 million is expected for 2026 to support infrastructure buildout in response to growing natural gas demand [15][24] - The company plans to maintain a target leverage ratio of between 3 to 3.5 times while continuing to return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [16][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's ability to generate free cash flow and return capital to shareholders, highlighting a strong operational and financial execution [5][17] - The current environment is characterized by commodity price volatility, but natural gas production growth is expected to continue [6][7] - Management noted that the compression market is experiencing strong demand due to underinvestment in infrastructure [39] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 1.1 million shares for about $25 million in Q3 2025, with a total of $159 million returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the first three quarters of 2025 [22][16] - The company has a total debt of $2.6 billion and available liquidity of $728 million [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on deploying free cash flow and capital allocation - Management emphasized that the best use of capital remains investing in business growth, with plans to continue growing dividends and share repurchases [27][30] Question: Insights on margins and sustainability - Management highlighted that gross margins were driven by pricing and excellent cost management, with technology investments improving operational efficiency [31][33] Question: Demand side and customer discussions - Management noted robust demand for LNG and data centers, leading to increased discussions with customers and confidence in multi-year growth [36][39] Question: Lead times and customer behavior - Lead times for Caterpillar engines are currently at 60 weeks, with no major shifts in customer behavior observed despite lower crude prices [46][48] Question: Extended time on location and recontracting - Management indicated that units are staying on location longer, which is expected to lead to longer contract terms and opportunities for repricing [51][53] Question: Capital expenditures and market conditions - Management stated that a $250 million growth CapEx for 2026 is consistent with prior years and reflects confidence in the market [65][66]

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a natural gas storage injection of 71 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Sept. 5, exceeding market expectations of 69 Bcf and significantly above the five-year average of 56 Bcf [3] - Total natural gas stocks reached 3,343 Bcf, which is 38 Bcf (1.1%) below the 2024 level but 188 Bcf (6%) higher than the five-year average [4] - Natural gas futures experienced a weekly decline of 3.5%, closing at $2.941/MMBtu, influenced by a bearish storage build and softer demand [5][9] Long-term Outlook - Analysts project stronger withdrawals this winter, with inventories expected to normalize closer to historical averages by 2026, supported by rising LNG exports and resilient industrial demand [7] - The natural gas market is anticipated to stabilize near the $3/MMBtu mark, underpinned by steady U.S. production and continued LNG expansion [6] Company Focus - **Expand Energy (EXE)**: The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. post-merger, positioned to benefit from increasing demand driven by LNG exports and electrification trends. The 2025 earnings per share estimate indicates a 325.5% year-over-year surge [10][11] - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with significant holdings in the Marcellus Shale, expected earnings per share growth rate for three to five years is 30.1%, outperforming the industry average [12][13] - **Excelerate Energy (EE)**: Specializes in LNG infrastructure, representing 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) fleet. The 2025 earnings per share estimate indicates a 5.5% year-over-year growth [14][15]

Gas Supply and Demand - Europe still relies on Russia for 15% of its gas supply [1] - Europe aims to end reliance on Russian gas within the next 18 months, creating increased demand for alternative sources [1] - The United States is positioned to displace Russian gas in Europe [1] Energy Market Growth in Europe - Europe is projected to become a growth market for energy after 20 years of stagnation [2] - Increased demand for AI is expected to drive electricity demand in Europe [2] Export Opportunities - LNG exports to Europe are expected to grow [2] - Oil and refined oil products exports to Europe are also expected to increase [2] Nuclear Technology - The company plans to bring nuclear technology and new reactors to Europe [2]

heady goals 750 billion in energy. You guys want to sell it. You want to triple energy sales to Europe in the next three years.We talked a little bit with your colleague and friend Secretary Bergam about it yesterday. But realistically, how do we do that in the United States. How do the Cheners, the Venture Globals, the Exxons, the Shells, the Seas, how do they accomplish those goals.So, number one, there's still a lot of gas from Russia going into Europe. 15% of Europe's gas supply still comes from Russia. ...

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a lower-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 110 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended May 9, compared to analysts' expectations of 111 Bcf [2] - Total natural gas stocks reached 2,255 Bcf, which is 375 Bcf (14.3%) below the 2024 level but 57 Bcf (2.6%) higher than the five-year average [3] - Natural gas futures fell about 12% during the week, ending at $3.343/MMBtu, the lowest in two weeks, due to mild weather leading to subdued demand [4] Company Focus - **Expand Energy (EXE)**: The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. after the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger, with significant assets in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 458.2% year-over-year surge, with an 18.7% increase in estimates over the past 60 days [7][8] - **Coterra Energy (CTRA)**: An independent upstream operator with a focus on natural gas, owning approximately 183,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale. The expected earnings per share growth rate for Coterra is 20.3% over three to five years, compared to the industry's 17.8% [9][10] - **Excelerate Energy (EE)**: Specializes in LNG infrastructure and services, representing 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) fleet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 10.2% year-over-year growth [11][12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $1,989 million for Q1 2025, reflecting a 3% increase compared to Q1 2024, with adjusted EBITDA excluding the marketing business up 5% [17][22] - The adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 was raised from a midpoint of $7,650 million to $7,700 million, indicating a projected 9% growth over 2024 [22][24] - The company received an S&P credit rating upgrade to BBB+ during the quarter, along with a positive outlook from Moody's [13][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Transmission and Gulf business improved by $23 million or 3%, setting an all-time record due to higher revenues from expansion projects [18][19] - The Northeast gathering and processing business improved by $10 million or 2%, primarily due to higher revenues from gathering and processing rates [20] - The West segment saw an increase of $26 million or 8%, driven by strong margins and pipeline volumes [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a 12% increase in Gulf gathering volumes and a 42% increase in NGL production [19] - The demand for natural gas pipeline capacity and volumetric demand is expected to grow, with the company well-positioned to benefit from this trend [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on the growing demand for natural gas, particularly in the power generation market, industrial reshoring, and LNG exports [25][26] - The company is pursuing high-return projects, including the Socrates project, which is expected to generate earnings consistent with a five times EBITDA build multiple [8][13] - The leadership transition is aimed at maintaining the company's strategic focus on natural gas while leveraging new opportunities in emerging markets [26][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about continued growth, citing a strong base business performance and a robust project pipeline [7][24] - The company anticipates accelerating growth rates throughout the remainder of 2025, with expectations for strong contributions from new projects [18][22] - Management highlighted the resilience of the business model against commodity price swings, particularly in the context of natural gas demand [24] Other Important Information - The company successfully placed two projects into service during the quarter, contributing to earnings growth [10][12] - The quarterly dividend was increased by 5.3% to $0.50 per share, reflecting a commitment to a well-covered dividend program [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help us understand the size and returns for the new power projects? - Management expects the new projects to have attractive returns similar to the Socrates project, with full commercialization anticipated throughout the year [32][34] Question: What is the strategic rationale for the Cogentrix investment? - The investment is seen as a way to position the company in the changing Northeast power market, focusing on gas supply rather than entering the merchant power generation space [36][38] Question: What competitive advantages does Williams have in the market? - The company emphasizes collaboration across its organization and strong relationships with suppliers, which have been key to its success in delivering solutions [43][45] Question: How does the company view the gas market unfolding? - Management sees a strong call for gas, particularly in dry gas basins, and expects to see a rotation of rigs into gas areas as oil prices soften [50][52] Question: What is the outlook for capital spending and project backlog? - The company anticipates elevated CapEx due to a strong project backlog, with a focus on maintaining high return profiles [55][60] Question: Can you provide an update on the Transco Power Express project? - The project is a 950 million cubic feet per day expansion, primarily sourcing from Station 165, and is scalable without dependence on the Mountain Valley Pipeline expansion [92][94]

Core Viewpoint - Golar LNG Limited has announced the Final Investment Decision for a 20-year re-deployment charter of the FLNG Hilli and signed agreements for a 20-year charter for the MKII FLNG, both to be operated offshore Argentina, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's earnings backlog and commodity exposure [1][2][4]. Group 1: Charter Agreements - The two FLNG agreements are projected to contribute US$ 13.7 billion in earnings backlog over 20 years, before adjustments based on US-CPI and commodity-linked tariff upside [2]. - For every US$ 1/mmbtu increase above US$ 8/mmbtu, Golar will gain approximately US$ 100 million when both FLNGs are operational [2]. - SESA has the option to reduce the term of the agreement to 12 years for FLNG Hilli and 15 years for MKII FLNG, subject to a 3-year notice and payment of a fee [2]. Group 2: Commodity Linked Tariff - Golar will receive 25% of realized FOB prices above a threshold of US$ 8/mmbtu, with no cap on the upside for gas prices [3]. - A mechanism allows for partial reduction of charter hire if FOB prices fall below US$ 7.5/mmbtu, down to a floor of US$ 6/mmbtu, with a maximum accumulated discount capped at US$ 210 million [3]. - Any outstanding discounted charter hire amounts will be repaid through additional upside sharing if FOB prices exceed US$ 7.5/mmbtu [3]. Group 3: Project Support and Infrastructure - The project has received full support from the National and Provincial Governments in Argentina, including a 30-year LNG export authorization and qualification for the Incentive Regime for Large Investments [5]. - The FLNGs will be located offshore in the Gulf of San Matias, monetizing gas from the Vaca Muerta formation, which is the world's second-largest shale gas resource [6]. - SESA plans to construct a dedicated pipeline from Vaca Muerta to the Gulf of San Matias to ensure gas supply to the FLNGs, enhancing operational efficiencies [6]. Group 4: Company and Market Position - Golar LNG Limited is a leading maritime LNG infrastructure company, recognized for pioneering floating LNG projects and is the only proven provider of FLNG as a service [10]. - The partnership with leading Argentinian gas producers positions Golar to benefit from the vast resources of the Vaca Muerta formation, contributing to Argentina's LNG export capabilities [7].