Labor Market Analysis - The government shutdown in October has created uncertainty regarding the availability and quality of key economic data, specifically inflation and employment figures [1][2] - November employment data collection is delayed and may be of questionable quality due to the Thanksgiving holiday, impacting market understanding of the economy's health [3][4] - Alternative indicators suggest the labor market is holding up, with Brailio Labs showing an increase in total non-farm payrolls and jobless claims remaining low [5][6] - The economy is likely still performing adequately, but a clearer picture may take another month to emerge due to data collection disruptions [6] - Economists are widening their data sources due to the unavailability of regular data from the BLS, CPI, and non-farm payrolls [9] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Implications - The consensus among economists leans towards labor weakness as a greater risk than higher inflation in the coming months [9] - Job growth slowdown in the past 6 months may be attributed to slowing immigration, impacting labor supply rather than labor demand [10][11] - The Federal Reserve published a paper expecting job growth over the next 12 months to be 30,000, a significant decline due to slowing immigration [12] - The Federal Reserve's ability to address the situation is limited if the issue is labor supply, as opposed to labor demand [13]

Should we start to get concerned that we're seeing really big layoffs, especially when it comes to white collar jobs, and I'm talking about UPS and Amazon here, both 14,000 layoffs and white collar workers. >> So, we have been in a job market that economists have called low, higher, low fire for a year or two now. And I think we're starting to move into an environment that's more low, higher, some fire.So, we're starting to see layoffs tick up to where they were uh compared to prepandemic levels. And the fa ...

Economic Activity - U.S economic activity was little changed [1] - Consumer spending edged down [1] Employment & Wages - Employment remained stable [1] - Labor demand softened [1] - Wages rose modestly across districts [1] Prices & Costs - Prices continued to climb [1] - Higher import costs contributed to price increases [1] - Increased service spending contributed to price increases [1] - Tariffs contributed to price increases [1]

US job openings barely rose in August, suggesting relatively steady demand for workers. https://t.co/DOiyrsQD9i ...

The bill, the reconciliation bill is boosting the economy and immigration is slowing it down. And then the effects of the tariff are both raising inflation and slowing down the economy. Both businesses and households facing the drag from the tariffs.>> I mean, I think about trying to compute all of these um all of these numbers with the many many moving pieces that you have. It's pretty complex situation. Um and I would I would imagine it changes on a pretty daily basis.But let's focus on on population grow ...

Labor Market - US companies increased hiring in July following a significant decrease in the prior month [1] - The hiring pace aligns with indications of reduced labor demand [1]