Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell outlined how the central bank is viewing the labor market after it cut interest rates last week for the third straight time, with a fresh jobs report due out on Tuesday. Powell spoke at a press conference after Federal Reserve policymakers voted to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, amid signs of a weakening labor market and emerging risks to the half of the Fed's dual mandate that focuses on promoting maximum employment ...

Core Insights - LinkedIn's monthly jobs report indicates a 6% year-over-year decline in hiring for October, which is over 24% lower than pre-pandemic levels [1][3] - The job market appears to be showing signs of weakness, despite overall market stability, with hiring and quits remaining consistent with September figures [2][3] - The number of job openings relative to job seekers has remained stable, suggesting a slow job market but not drastic changes throughout the year [3] Labor Market Dynamics - College graduates with bachelor's degrees are performing comparably to the overall labor market, while those with advanced degrees (MBAs, JDs) are faring worse [5] - Industries that typically employ advanced degree holders, such as technology, media, legal, accounting, consulting, and financial services, have been significantly affected by the labor market slowdown due to rising interest rates [6]

Core Insights - The absence of official labor data due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty in the market, with private reports indicating a gradual deceleration in the labor market [1][5]. Labor Market Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report for September indicated a decline of 32,000 jobs, marking one of the weakest readings since the pandemic, released just as the government shutdown began [2]. - Revelio Labs' Public Labor Statistics reported a modest gain of 60,000 nonfarm jobs for September, while Indeed's job postings showed a sharp decline throughout the year, reinforcing the narrative of a cooling labor market [3]. - The Challenger Job Cuts Report revealed that 948,000 job cuts have been announced this year, the highest year-to-date total since 2020, with 299,000 cuts from the government sector [4]. Hiring Trends - Employers have announced plans to hire only 205,000 workers this year, the lowest year-to-date hiring figure since 2009, indicating a stagnant labor market [4]. - The combination of these private data sources suggests a weakening labor market, with hiring activity at some of the lowest levels seen since 2009 [5]. Implications for Monetary Policy - For the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), these figures provide justification for potential rate cuts to support employment, although this stance may change if inflation accelerates unexpectedly [5].

That marks a stagnation or even reversal of private job growth, the latest sign of a labor market slowdown through 2025. Traders increased bets on two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. ...