Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, indicating concerns about a weakening labor market and potential risks to employment [1][5]. Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate has increased to 4.4%, with job gains significantly slowing earlier in the year [2]. - Factors contributing to the slowdown include a decline in labor force growth due to lower immigration and participation rates, alongside softened labor demand [2]. - Payroll growth has averaged about 40,000 per month since April, with an overstatement of approximately 60,000 in monthly job numbers, suggesting an average of -20,000 jobs over that period [7][8]. Economic Projections - The Fed's "dot plot" indicates an expected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% by the end of 2025, before slightly decreasing to 4.4% next year [5]. - Powell stated that the current interest rate policy is close to neutral, which should help stabilize the labor market and prevent a more significant downturn [5][6]. Policy Decisions and Dissent - Two policymakers dissented from the rate cut decision, advocating for unchanged interest rates due to economic uncertainty and inflation concerns [9][12]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized that the labor market is only moderately cooling and characterized the environment as "low hiring/low-firing," indicating stability rather than a conventional slowdown [12].

Core Insights - LinkedIn's monthly jobs report indicates a 6% year-over-year decline in hiring for October, which is over 24% lower than pre-pandemic levels [1][3] - The job market appears to be showing signs of weakness, despite overall market stability, with hiring and quits remaining consistent with September figures [2][3] - The number of job openings relative to job seekers has remained stable, suggesting a slow job market but not drastic changes throughout the year [3] Labor Market Dynamics - College graduates with bachelor's degrees are performing comparably to the overall labor market, while those with advanced degrees (MBAs, JDs) are faring worse [5] - Industries that typically employ advanced degree holders, such as technology, media, legal, accounting, consulting, and financial services, have been significantly affected by the labor market slowdown due to rising interest rates [6]

Core Insights - The absence of official labor data due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty in the market, with private reports indicating a gradual deceleration in the labor market [1][5]. Labor Market Indicators - The ADP National Employment Report for September indicated a decline of 32,000 jobs, marking one of the weakest readings since the pandemic, released just as the government shutdown began [2]. - Revelio Labs' Public Labor Statistics reported a modest gain of 60,000 nonfarm jobs for September, while Indeed's job postings showed a sharp decline throughout the year, reinforcing the narrative of a cooling labor market [3]. - The Challenger Job Cuts Report revealed that 948,000 job cuts have been announced this year, the highest year-to-date total since 2020, with 299,000 cuts from the government sector [4]. Hiring Trends - Employers have announced plans to hire only 205,000 workers this year, the lowest year-to-date hiring figure since 2009, indicating a stagnant labor market [4]. - The combination of these private data sources suggests a weakening labor market, with hiring activity at some of the lowest levels seen since 2009 [5]. Implications for Monetary Policy - For the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), these figures provide justification for potential rate cuts to support employment, although this stance may change if inflation accelerates unexpectedly [5].

Labor Market Trends - Private job growth shows stagnation or reversal, indicating a labor market slowdown through 2025 [1] Monetary Policy Expectations - Traders increased bets on two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year [1]