Macroeconomic Analysis - The "Magic Formula" indicates GDP growth is increasingly reliant on debt due to declining population and productivity growth [3] - Private sector debt remains around 120% of GDP, with the public sector at a similar level [3] - Economic growth is significantly consumed by servicing private-sector debts, rendering it unproductive [3] - Government debt growth is offsetting demographic decline [5] - Debt growth exceeding GDP is being monetized [6] - Liquidity is the primary driver in the current economic environment [8] Demographic Trends - Birth rates have been declining since the late 1950s, impacting the labor force participation rate [4] - The labor force participation rate is expected to continue declining due to structural demographic issues [4] - Aging populations and automation contribute to deflationary pressures [5] Monetary Policy & Investment Implications - Governments are issuing new debt to cover old interest, with central banks absorbing it through quantitative easing (QE) [7] - A substantial amount of interest needs to be monetized, exceeding GDP capacity [8] - Bitcoin thrives in a world of perpetual currency debasement [9]

Employment Growth - Non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, the highest since April's 158,000 increase [1] - The previous month's (August) job growth was revised down from 22,000 to a loss of 4,000 jobs [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 43% to 44% [1] - The last time the unemployment rate was at or above this level was in October 2021, at 45% [2] Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate increased to 624%, matching the level in May [2] - To find a higher labor force participation rate, one must go back to April of this year, when it was 626% [2] Average Hourly Earnings - Month-over-month average hourly earnings increased by 021% [3] - This increase is considered weak, as expectations were for a 03% increase, and the June increase was 02% [3] - A lower month-over-month increase was last seen in August 2023, at 011% [3] - Year-over-year average hourly earnings increased from 37% to 38% [3] - This 38% increase is the highest since July's 39% increase [3] - The high water mark for year-over-year average hourly earnings for the year remains at 39%, observed for four months [3]

Employment Landscape - The non-farm payrolls report, while stronger than expected, indicates a slowing employment landscape [1] - Headline data decreased compared to the previous month, which was also revised downwards [1] - Employers may be reducing hiring due to tighter financial conditions, while incentivizing current employees with higher wages [1] Wage Growth & Labor Force - Strong wage growth coupled with a lower labor force participation rate was observed [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Continued wage pressures may keep inflation elevated, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The low unemployment rate provides no immediate impetus for a rate cut [2]