We came across a bullish thesis on Molson Coors Beverage Company on Scalper's Lounge’s Substack by scalpavelli. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TAP. Molson Coors Beverage Company's share was trading at $46.86 as of September 17th. TAP’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.24 and 8.04 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Top 5 Beer Brands in the World Pixabay/Public Domain Molson Coors (TAP) recently traded near $47.50, a level identified as a strategic entry point by analysts, pr ...

Financial Performance Highlights - Arcosa's Adjusted EBITDA grew by 42%, outpacing revenue growth of 18%[9] - The company achieved a record consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 20.9%, an increase of 360 basis points[9] - Pricing in aggregates increased by 8%, leading to a 15% gain in cash unit profitability[9] - Q2 2025 revenues increased by 18% from $626.6 million to $736.9 million[20] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 37% from $112.7 million to $154.2 million[20] Strategic Initiatives and Outlook - Arcosa is targeting a long-term net leverage ratio of 2.0-2.5x within the next three quarters[9] - The company maintains full-year revenue guidance, anticipating a 17% increase[9] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase by 30%[9] - The company expects Adjusted EBITDA growth to be roughly 40% organic and 60% inorganic[9] Segment Performance - Construction Products' Adjusted Segment EBITDA increased by 44% from $69.7 million to $100.4 million[23] - Engineered Structures' Adjusted Segment EBITDA increased by 31% from $41.7 million to $54.8 million[26] - Transportation Products' revenues increased by 18%[28]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of $124.9 million and a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $35.1 million, with AFFO at $53.1 million or $0.24 per share [16][19] - The gross outstanding debt balance was $3.1 billion at the end of Q2 2025, a reduction of $2 billion from the end of 2024 [17] - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 6.6 times, down from 8.1 times at the end of 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company completed the $1.8 billion sale of its multi-tenant retail portfolio, increasing occupancy to 98% from 97% as of year-end 2024 [5][6] - The percentage of leases with rent escalators increased to 88% from 81% [6] - The office portfolio maintained 100% rent collection and had the highest percentage of investment-grade tenancy at 77% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Geographically, 70% of straight-line rent is earned in North America and 30% in Europe, providing diversification across economic cycles [13][14] - The company has reduced its exposure to the gas and convenience store sector, with assets sold amounting to approximately $108 million, decreasing portfolio exposure to 2.1% from 5.3% [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to drive sustainable long-term growth by optimizing its portfolio, reducing leverage, and lowering its cost of capital [5] - The strategic focus includes reducing exposure to non-core assets, particularly in the office sector, while maintaining a disciplined approach to tenant retention [9][10] - The company plans to use proceeds from asset sales to fund stock buybacks and further deleverage [43][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in performance and raised the lower end of AFFO per share guidance to a range of $0.92 to $0.96 for the remainder of 2025 [19] - The company is focused on completing ongoing initiatives, including dispositions and lease renewals, to maintain earnings within the stated guidance range [27] - Management acknowledged the disappointing share price performance despite improvements in the balance sheet and extended debt maturities [13] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 10.2 million shares at a weighted average price of $7.52, totaling $77 million, capitalizing on an AFFO yield of approximately 12% [12] - The company has no remaining debt maturities in 2025 and $95 million of debt tied to retail assets expiring in 2026 [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the target percentage for office assets and the timeline for reduction? - Management indicated a strategic approach to office portfolio reduction, emphasizing the strong performance and high-quality tenants, without providing specific targets or timelines [25][26] Question: When does management expect earnings to begin growing again? - Management raised the lower end of the earnings guidance to $0.92 to $0.96 per share and indicated that they would provide guidance for 2026 later in the year [27] Question: Can management comment on the recent share sale by the CEO? - The CEO explained that the sale was due to personal obligations and should not be interpreted negatively regarding the company's future [28][29] Question: How does management view the auto manufacturing sector within the portfolio? - Management expressed confidence in the critical assets within the auto manufacturing sector, particularly those tied to US manufacturers, and does not foresee significant issues [33][34] Question: What is the pace of future dispositions? - Management indicated a pipeline of approximately $300 million in future dispositions and emphasized the strategic nature of these sales [42]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter fell well below plan, reflecting a significant decline in attendance due to macro factors and extreme weather conditions [20][24][34] - The company ended the quarter with approximately $107 million in cash and cash equivalents, with total liquidity of $540 million [20] - Gross debt outstanding at the end of the second quarter was approximately $5.3 billion, with net debt to annualized second quarter adjusted EBITDA at approximately 6.2 times, above the target range of sub four times [22][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Attendance at Legacy Cedar Fair parks was up 3% during July, while per capita spending on admissions increased by 4% [25][30] - Per capita spending on in-park products at Legacy Cedar Fair parks was up 3%, driven by higher guest spending on food, beverage, and merchandise [25] - The company introduced a reimagined pass structure for the 2026 season pass program to enhance appeal and attract new customers [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Combined attendance was down 12% over a six-week period due to severe weather, while attendance was flat during the first seven weeks of the quarter when weather was not an issue [24] - Attendance in July was up 1%, with preliminary net revenues down approximately 3% due to pressure on guest spending [29][34] - The company experienced a surge in demand for parks in July, with season pass sales climbing rapidly [11][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing assets and reducing net leverage while executing integration efforts [10][18] - A significant restructuring was completed to flatten leadership layers and improve agility, aiming for annualized labor cost reductions of over $20 million [17] - The company is actively pursuing divestitures of non-core assets to accelerate deleveraging [22][58] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that the challenges faced in the first half of the year are largely transient and not indicative of a fundamental change in consumer behavior [49] - The company anticipates stronger second-half results with normalized weather conditions and improved demand trends [37][39] - Management remains committed to reducing leverage and is evaluating opportunities to monetize non-core assets [38][39] Other Important Information - The company incurred $11 million in non-recurring merger-related integration costs and $28 million in adjusted EBITDA add-backs during the quarter [27] - The company expects to reduce full-year operating costs and expenses by 3% compared to last year's combined cost base [18][35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on macro pressures - Management clarified that macro pressures include significant weather impacts and some pressure on lower-income consumers, but overall spending behavior at parks remains strong [44][46] Question: Impact of weather on long-term targets - Management believes the challenges faced are transient and not reflective of long-term potential, with a focus on finishing 2025 strong and building momentum for 2026 [49][50] Question: Details on divestitures - Management is actively pursuing two non-core asset sales and evaluating other potential divestitures to optimize the portfolio [58][59] Question: Cost savings and synergies - Management confirmed that the goal for permanent cost savings remains at $120 million, with a focus on realizing these synergies in the second half of the year [61][62] Question: Guidance on attendance and pricing - Management indicated that attendance is expected to be flat for the second half, with pricing strategies being adjusted based on demand trends observed in recent weeks [34][91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $824 million, a 16% decline year over year, primarily due to lower core revenues and the divestiture of Towanda operations [12][15] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $39 million, down $46 million from the previous year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.7% [13][16] - Free cash flow was negligible compared to $12 million in Q2 2024, driven by lower EBITDA [13][14] - Net debt leverage ratio increased to 5.7 times, exceeding the targeted range, with a focus on reducing leverage [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America segment reported revenue of $556 million, a 22% decline year over year, with adjusted EBITDA dropping to $35 million from $76 million [17] - Europe segment revenue was $268 million, down 2.7% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA at $17 million, a decline of $3 million [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand remained soft across all product categories and end markets, with a 14% decrease in volume and mix [15][16] - The court-ordered divestiture of Towanda operations negatively impacted year-over-year comparisons [12][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving service levels, optimizing manufacturing and distribution networks, and investing in automation to enhance long-term efficiency [32][34] - Full year revenue guidance is set between $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion, with core revenue expected to decline between 4% to 9% [22][23] - The company is evaluating strategic options to address high leverage, including potential divestitures of non-core assets [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing challenges in the macro environment but expressed confidence in long-term housing demand and the company's positioning for recovery [8][35] - The company reinstated full year guidance due to improved visibility, despite the uncertain macroeconomic conditions [8][22] Other Important Information - The company expects approximately $100 million in transformation benefits for the year, with half of that being carryover from previous actions [25][30] - Tariffs are estimated to have an annualized impact of approximately $40 million, with pricing actions in place to recover costs [20][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Optimization of the network and implications for near-term margins - Management indicated they are over the halfway mark in optimizing the network but are slowing consolidation efforts to preserve capital and limit service disruptions [38][39] Question: Pricing pressures and inflation offset - Management noted a slight negative price-cost relationship due to inflation exceeding price increases, with competitive pricing pressures in select regions [43][44] Question: Actions to address leverage and urgency - Management confirmed that while the leverage ratio is above target, there is no immediate pressure due to ample liquidity and no restrictive covenants [50][52] Question: Volume performance in North America and Europe - Management reported mid single-digit volume declines in North America, with a similar trend in Europe, but noted that the rate of decline is slowing [63][66] Question: EBITDA margin improvement in the second half - Management explained that incremental EBITDA margins are expected to improve due to volume increases and cost mitigation actions already in place [54][56] Question: Performance of windows versus doors - Management stated that there has been no significant change in performance between windows and doors, with minimal mix down observed in 2025 [92][95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted company FFO for Q2 2025 was $0.16 per diluted common share, totaling approximately $47 million, with guidance for 2025 adjusted company FFO tightened to a range of $0.62 to $0.64 [14][20] - Same store NOI growth for Q2 was 4.7%, with the same store portfolio 98% leased at quarter end [14][15] - Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5.8 times at quarter end, down 0.4 turns over the last twelve months [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company leased approximately 2.4 million square feet year to date, with second generation base and cash based rent spreads of approximately 41% and 46% respectively [9] - The company reached a significant milestone by leasing a 1,100,000 square foot facility in Greenville Spartanburg, contributing $3.7 million of base rent in 2025 [14][10] - Portfolio occupancy increased to 94.1% in Q2, up from 93.3% in Q1 [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net absorption in the U.S. was approximately 30 million square feet in Q2, with 20 million square feet occurring in the company's 12 target markets [8] - The construction pipeline in the target markets is approximately 90 million square feet, down nearly 75% from the 2022 peak [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on its investment strategy in 12 target markets, which account for approximately 85% of gross assets, emphasizing positive demographic trends and advanced manufacturing investments [12] - The company is evaluating modest capital recycling opportunities outside of target markets for reinvestment, aiming to be largely earnings neutral [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the core business amid a soft industrial real estate environment and uncertain macroeconomic conditions [7] - The company anticipates lower tenant retention for 2025, with year-end same store occupancy expected to be approximately 97% to 99% [10][15] Other Important Information - The company sold a property in Chillicothe, Ohio for approximately $40 million at a cash capitalization rate of 4.3%, bolstering its cash position [11] - The company has approximately $71 million in cash on the balance sheet at quarter end [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What drove the low cap rate on the sale? - The sale execution was better than if sold into the investor marketplace, as a user wanted to own the property [23] Question: Can you provide a sense of the magnitude of dispositions in the near term? - The company would test the market with about $100 million of dispositions going forward, optimistic about creating liquidity from assets outside of target markets [25] Question: What has traffic been like for leasing up larger empty boxes? - Activity in Indianapolis has picked up significantly, while Central Florida has seen slower activity but renewed interest recently [26][29] Question: Can you provide an update on lease expirations? - The company expects to backfill the 380,000 square foot facility in Indianapolis quickly, with positive activity noted [34][35] Question: What is the outlook for tenant retention in 2026? - Strong retention is expected, with a few tenants potentially moving out, but overall positive outlook for renewals [38] Question: Are there opportunities within the land bank? - There is potential interest in build-to-suit projects, particularly in Columbus, where the market has tightened significantly [40] Question: Will the cold storage or office JV properties be considered for sale? - Those portfolios are considered static, with one potential opportunity in the office JV [46] Question: How does the company view share repurchase versus acquisitions? - The priority is to generate more EBITDA and reduce net debt to EBITDA, with share repurchase being a potential part of the strategy [50]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of $132.4 million and a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $200.3 million, which is expected to improve significantly upon closing the remainder of the multi-tenant portfolio sale [19][20] - The gross outstanding debt balance was $3.9 billion at the end of Q1 2025, down by $1.3 billion from the end of Q1 2024 [20] - The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 6.7 times at the end of Q1 2025, improved from 8.4 times at the end of Q1 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a milestone with the signing of a definitive agreement for the sale of its multi-tenant portfolio, generating $1.1 billion in gross proceeds from the first phase, which included 59 unencumbered properties [8] - The portfolio's occupancy stood at 95% at the end of Q1 2025, with a weighted average remaining lease term of 6.3 years [12] - Following the departure of Contractor Steel, the company sold five vacant properties for a combined $60 million, which helped minimize vacancy downtime [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Geographically, 76% of straight-line rent is earned in North America and 24% in Europe, providing diversification across economic cycles [15] - The portfolio features a stable tenant base, with 60% of tenants receiving an investment grade or implied investment grade rating [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on reducing leverage and enhancing financial flexibility, with a goal of achieving an investment grade credit rating [5][9] - A $300 million share repurchase program was approved, with 7.9 million shares repurchased at a weighted average price of $7.5, reflecting a strategic approach to capitalize on undervalued stock [11] - The company is strategically scaling back its exposure to the gas and convenience store sector, reallocating capital toward higher growth sectors [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating market volatility and highlighted the importance of a strong balance sheet for future growth [5][24] - The company reaffirmed its AFFO per share guidance range of $0.90 to $0.96 for 2025, indicating a positive outlook despite current market conditions [23] Other Important Information - The company has a closed plus disposition pipeline totaling $2.1 billion, with total asset sales expected to reach nearly $3 billion by the end of 2025 [9][10] - The weighted average interest rate on debt stood at 4.4%, with an interest coverage ratio of 2.5 times [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the remaining $300 million in the disposition pipeline by sector or geography? - Management indicated that the remaining pipeline consists of non-core dispositions identified since the end of 2024, continuing the deleveraging strategy [29][30] Question: How will market volatility impact asset sales and pricing? - Management believes there will still be opportunities to sell assets, leveraging relationships with local brokers to navigate the market [31][32] Question: Is the 12% AFFO yield the hurdle rate for future buybacks? - Management expressed satisfaction with the current buyback execution and indicated that they will continue to monitor AFFO accretion for future buybacks [33][34] Question: What is the capital allocation strategy regarding share buybacks versus debt repayment? - Management emphasized a focus on reducing leverage and opportunistic share buybacks, while also maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation [40][41] Question: Can you share insights on credit rating upgrades and potential savings? - Management noted that conversations with credit agencies are confidential but acknowledged the positive credit watch status and the long-term goal of accessing investment grade debt opportunities [46][47] Question: What types of dispositions are being targeted moving forward? - Management mentioned looking at retail opportunities and continuing to evaluate the portfolio for potential sales, particularly in the gas and convenience store sector [49][50] Question: Did Contractor Steel pay any rent in Q1? - Management confirmed that Contractor Steel did not pay any rent in Q1 [78] Question: How should investors think about the run rate for AFFO in the back half of the year? - Management explained that the income statement already accounts for discontinued operations related to the multi-tenant portfolio, and they expect a decrease in G&A expenses due to the sale [82] Question: Are there more vacant assets available for future proceeds? - Management indicated that after the completion of the multi-tenant sale, the portfolio would be nearly 98% occupied, suggesting limited future vacant asset sales [86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brookdale Senior Living reported a consolidated RevPAR growth of 4.9% in Q1 2025, driven by an increase in weighted average occupancy [25][32] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $124 million, representing a 27% increase year-over-year, exceeding internal expectations and analyst consensus [32] - Adjusted free cash flow turned positive at $4 million, a significant improvement from the previous year [32][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same community RevPAR increased by 4.5% year-over-year, with a weighted average occupancy of 80% [28] - Same community expense per occupied unit rose by only 1.6%, indicating effective cost management relative to revenue growth [29] - Operating income margin for same communities expanded by 90 basis points to 29%, the highest in five years [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 3% increase in move-ins compared to the prior year, significantly above historical averages [25] - The weighted average occupancy increased by 140 basis points to 79.3% in Q1 2025, reflecting positive market dynamics [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving operational performance, optimizing its real estate portfolio, and reducing leverage to enhance shareholder value [13][19] - A leadership transition is underway, with the board seeking a new CEO to drive operational improvements and strategic vision [9][10] - The company plans to exit 55 leased communities and divest 14 non-core owned communities by year-end 2025, aiming for 75% of its portfolio to be owned [16][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the strong start to 2025, raising annual guidance for RevPAR and adjusted EBITDA [24][39] - The company acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but remains confident in its strategic plans and operational improvements [95][99] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining pricing power while balancing occupancy growth [62] Other Important Information - The company has appointed two new independent directors to enhance board expertise and oversight [12] - A focus on enhancing the quality of living environments for residents has led to multiple recognitions, including being named a "most loved workplace" by Newsweek [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on your pricing strategy? - Management indicated that pricing promotions are being piloted to boost occupancy while maintaining rate discipline [47][49] Question: What is the timeline for the impact of the First Impressions investment initiatives? - Management stated that targeted investments are expected to positively influence occupancy and rates, with budgeting for 2026 to begin later in the year [52][53] Question: How should we think about the seasonality of margins throughout the year? - Management explained that Q1 typically has the highest margins due to fewer workdays, with expected headwinds in Q2 from merit increases and additional workdays [58][60] Question: What initiatives are already contributing to better occupancy results? - Management noted that the SWAT teams and dynamic pricing strategies have been effective in improving occupancy [68][70] Question: What is the board prioritizing in the CEO search? - The board is looking for candidates with operational expertise and strategic vision to propel the company forward [90][91]

Company Overview - Coeur Mining is identified as a fast-growing silver-gold producer with high-quality assets [1] - The company is currently at an inflection point, necessitating a shift in focus towards profitability, reducing leverage, and returning capital to shareholders [1] Investment Outlook - The investment outlook emphasizes the importance of protecting investments and being cautious in the market [1]