Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) reported weak demand for its grooming products, with volume declines across three out of five product categories [1][2] - The company’s overall revenue fell short of expectations, but shares increased as investors look to new CEO Shailesh Jejurikar for a turnaround [3] Group 1: Product Categories Performance - The feminine and family care products category, including brands like Pampers and Charmin, saw a 5% volume decline last quarter [2] - The grooming segment, which includes Gillette and Venus, experienced a 2% drop in volume, while the healthcare segment (Oral-B, Vicks) fell by 1% [2] - The haircare and beauty category was the only segment with sales volume growth last quarter, attributed to high-end acquisitions like Ouai and Farmacy [7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Factors - Consumers are staggering their purchases to save money, opting for less frequent grooming routines, which has impacted demand [4] - The government shutdown affected lower-income shoppers, leading to sales declines in December [4] - P&G's sales rose 1% to $22.2 billion last quarter due to higher prices, but overall demand fell as consumers sought deals [5] Group 3: Market Trends - The K-shaped economy is influencing consumer behavior, with higher-income consumers also looking for deals, particularly in luxury products [5] - The "Lipstick Index" theory suggests that when consumers cut back on some purchases, they may splurge on small luxuries like high-end makeup [5] - In China, despite a declining birthrate, P&G's premium Pampers Prestige line is experiencing double-digit growth [7]

Core Insights - Estée Lauder's stock has seen a steady increase over the past three months, with a notable jump of over 10% following the death of Leonard Lauder, a key executive and son of the founder [1][3] - Michael Burry's hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, has doubled its stake in Estée Lauder, making it the only long position held by the firm [1][3] Company Developments - Leonard Lauder, who played a significant role in transforming Estée Lauder into a global leader in the beauty industry, passed away at the age of 92 [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, Scion Asset Management purchased an additional 100,000 shares, increasing its total holdings to 200,000 shares [2] Market Trends - The increase in Estée Lauder's stock price may reflect a strategic bet on the "Lipstick Index," which suggests that consumers tend to purchase affordable luxuries like cosmetics during economic downturns [3] - Historical data indicates that during the 2008 recession, cosmetics sales increased, highlighting consumer behavior towards small comfort purchases in tough economic times [4]

Group 1: Alibaba - Alibaba is considered one of the cheapest stocks, trading at a forward P/E ratio of less than 15 times 2025 analyst estimates [2] - The company has made significant advancements in AI, particularly with its foundational AI model Qwen 2.5-Max, which supports various specialized open-source AI models [3] - The cloud intelligence group reported a 13% revenue growth to $4.3 billion, with AI-related revenue increasing for six consecutive quarters [4] - E-commerce platforms Tmall and Taobao are showing a turnaround, with overall segment revenue rising by 5% and third-party business revenue climbing by 9% [5] - Overall, Alibaba is gaining momentum as a cheap stock [6] Group 2: e.l.f. Beauty - e.l.f. Beauty's shares have decreased by nearly two-thirds, placing the stock in bargain territory with a forward P/E of 23 and a PEG ratio of 0.5 [7] - The company lowered its quarterly revenue growth forecast to 1% to 2% due to poor industry trends and potential impacts from a TikTok ban [8] - e.l.f. has opportunities for growth in the skincare market and adjacent categories like fragrance, along with international expansion [9] - The cosmetic industry tends to perform well during recessions, suggesting resilience for e.l.f. Beauty [10] - This is seen as a favorable time to acquire shares of e.l.f. Beauty while prices are low [11] Group 3: Crocs - Crocs shares have declined by about 20% over the past year, trading at a forward P/E of under 8 [12] - The company is focusing on turning around the HeyDudes brand, which has shown flat sales year over year, with a strategy targeting young female consumers [13] - Progress has been made in clearing older HeyDude inventory and returning to full-price selling [14] - Crocs continues to generate significant cash flow, with $923.2 million in free cash flow expected in 2024, providing financial flexibility for growth initiatives [15]