Summary of Gotion High-Tech Co. (002074.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Gotion High-Tech Co. (002074.SZ) - **Market Cap**: Rmb69.4 billion / $9.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb89.0 billion / $12.5 billion - **Target Price**: Rmb45.40 (up from Rmb28.80) with a current price of Rmb40.12, indicating a 13.2% upside [1][20] Financial Performance - **2Q25 Results**: - **Net Profit**: Rmb266 million, +32% YoY, +164% QoQ, but missed estimates by 31% (approximately Rmb120 million) [1] - **Gross Profit**: Rmb1.5 billion, -7% YoY, -8% QoQ, below estimates by 3% [1] - **Revenue**: Rmb10.3 billion, +11% YoY, +14% QoQ, exceeding estimates by 17% [1] - **Sales Volume**: ~22 GWh, +47% YoY, +22% QoQ, beating estimates by 25% [1] Key Insights - **Earnings Miss**: The earnings miss was attributed to an unexpected asset impairment of Rmb154 million linked to lithium price corrections [1] - **Unit Gross Profit (GP)**: Estimated at ~Rmb62/kWh in 2Q25, below estimates of ~Rmb78/kWh and down from Rmb84/kWh in 1Q25 due to: - Stronger-than-expected US tariff impacts hindering exports [2] - Industry-wide GP decline due to price competition [2] - Unit depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) inflation from new capacity ramp-up [2] - **OPEX Efficiency**: OPEX was 11% of revenue, significantly below the earlier estimate of 15%, indicating improved efficiency supported by volume growth [2] Future Outlook - **OPEX Projections**: OPEX assumptions for 2025-27E have been lowered to 11% from 13%, with each 1% decline in OPEX ratio expected to lead to net profit expansions of 29%/14%/13% in 2025-2027E [18] - **Earnings Revisions**: 2026-27E earnings raised by 45% and 16% respectively, mainly due to OPEX savings and higher volume assumptions [19] - **Target Price Increase**: The target price was raised to Rmb45.4 based on a near- and long-term valuation approach [20] Risks - **Volume Growth**: Slower-than-expected volume growth could lead to earnings downside of 4%/2%/3% in 2025E-2027E for every 1% miss [21] - **Market Competition**: Loss of market share with major OEMs could undermine revenue and earnings forecasts [21] - **Price Competition**: Stronger-than-expected price competition could significantly impact earnings, with a Rmb10/kWh GP decline potentially lowering earnings by approximately 60% in 2025E and 30% in 2026E [21] Subsidy Insights - **Government Subsidies**: Expected to peak in 2026E, with total subsidies representing 58%/25%/7% of net profit for 2025-2027E [28] - **China CAPEX Related Subsidies**: Increased estimates for 2025E-26E from Rmb655 million/Rmb595 million to Rmb896 million/Rmb1,017 million [28] Conclusion - Gotion High-Tech Co. shows strong sales volume growth and improved OPEX efficiency, although it faces challenges from market competition and price pressures. The revised target price reflects a positive outlook based on operational improvements and expected subsidy support.