Investment Strategy - The company focuses on identifying high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk [1] - The investment methodology includes leadership and management analysis, market disruption and competitive positioning, financial health and risk management, valuation and asymmetric risk/reward, and portfolio construction and risk control [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - Proven track record in scaling businesses is essential for investment decisions [1] - Smart capital allocation and insider ownership are key factors [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are prioritized [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - A strong technology moat and first-mover advantage are critical for success [1] - Network effects that drive exponential growth are sought after [1] - Market penetration in high-growth industries is a focus area [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow is necessary for long-term viability [1] - A strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway are essential [1] - Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness is a priority [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling are used for valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are considered [1] - Ensuring downside protection while maximizing upside potential is a key strategy [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - Core positions (50-70%) consist of high-confidence, stable plays [1] - Growth bets (20-40%) are allocated to high-risk, high-reward opportunities [1] - Speculative investments (5-10%) are made in moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]

Core Insights - IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN) has experienced an 80% surge, prompting investors to consider trimming or exiting their positions [1] Company Analysis - Leadership and Management: IREN demonstrates a proven track record in scaling businesses, smart capital allocation, and insider ownership, alongside consistent revenue growth and credible guidance [1] - Financial Health: The company shows sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and a long-term survival runway while avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness [1] Market Positioning - Competitive Advantage: IREN possesses a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, with network effects that drive exponential growth and market penetration in high-growth industries [1] Investment Methodology - Asymmetric Opportunities: The investment strategy focuses on identifying high-potential winners with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk, leveraging market inefficiencies and contrarian insights [1] - Portfolio Construction: The portfolio consists of core positions (50-70%), growth bets (20-40%), and speculative investments (5-10%) to balance risk and reward [1]

Core Insights - Celestica Inc. (NYSE: CLS) has experienced a significant rally, increasing by 64% since the last coverage, indicating strong market confidence in the company's performance [1] - Projected sales for Celestica are expected to rise from $5.6 billion in 2021 to $9.6 billion in 2024, with further growth anticipated to $11.55 billion in 2025, showcasing robust revenue growth [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - The company has a proven track record in scaling businesses, demonstrating effective capital allocation and insider ownership [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are highlighted as key strengths of the management team [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - Celestica benefits from a strong technology moat and first-mover advantage, positioning it well in the market [1] - The company is leveraging network effects that drive exponential growth and has achieved market penetration in high-growth industries [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - The company exhibits sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow, supported by a strong balance sheet and a long-term survival runway [1] - Celestica avoids excessive dilution and maintains financial strength, which is crucial for its ongoing operations [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - The analysis includes revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling to assess valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are utilized to ensure downside protection while maximizing upside potential [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - The investment strategy includes core positions (50-70%) in high-confidence, stable plays, growth bets (20-40%) in high-risk, high-reward opportunities, and speculative positions (5-10%) in moonshot disruptors [1]

Investment Strategy - The company focuses on spotting high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk [1] - The investment methodology includes identifying high-conviction opportunities through leadership and management analysis, market disruption and competitive positioning, financial health and risk management, valuation, and portfolio construction [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - Proven track record in scaling businesses is essential, along with smart capital allocation and insider ownership [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are critical factors for evaluation [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - A strong technology moat and first-mover advantage are key competitive advantages [1] - Network effects that drive exponential growth and market penetration in high-growth industries are prioritized [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow is a focus area [1] - Maintaining a strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway is crucial, along with avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling are used for valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are considered to ensure downside protection with significant upside potential [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - Core positions (50-70%) consist of high-confidence, stable plays, while growth bets (20-40%) are high-risk, high-reward opportunities [1] - Speculative investments (5-10%) are allocated to moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]

Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy focuses on owning high-quality U.S.-based growth stocks, low-cost diversified index funds, and select alternative assets such as gold, silver, and cryptocurrency [1] - The portfolio is designed for long-term compounding, balancing conviction in individual companies with broad market exposure [1] Professional Background - The individual works in the IT and data space for a large private Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) firm, specializing in analytics, data governance, and technology-driven problem-solving [1] - This background provides an edge in understanding large-cap technology companies, which are a core part of the equity holdings [1] Educational Foundation - The passion for finance began while earning an MBA in Finance, providing a strong foundation in fundamental analysis, accounting, and portfolio construction [1] - Engagement with the Seeking Alpha community has led to contributions of research and perspectives aimed at younger investors [1]

Investment Strategy - The company focuses on spotting high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk [1] - The investment methodology includes identifying high-conviction opportunities through leadership and management analysis, market disruption and competitive positioning, financial health and risk management, valuation, and portfolio construction [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - Proven track record in scaling businesses is essential, along with smart capital allocation and insider ownership [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are critical factors for evaluation [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - A strong technology moat and first-mover advantage are key competitive advantages [1] - Network effects that drive exponential growth and market penetration in high-growth industries are prioritized [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow is a focus area [1] - Maintaining a strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway is crucial, along with avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling are used for valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are considered to ensure downside protection with significant upside potential [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - Core positions (50-70%) are allocated to high-confidence, stable plays [1] - Growth bets (20-40%) are high-risk, high-reward opportunities, while speculative investments (5-10%) are aimed at moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]

Core Insights - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research methodology emphasizes a structured, repeatable framework to identify companies with durable business models and mispriced cash flow potential [1] - Valuation practices are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model, emphasizing comparability and relevance [1] Research Focus - Moretus Research targets underappreciated companies that are undergoing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - The research combines rigorous fundamental analysis with a judgment-driven process, avoiding noise and overly complex forecasting [1] - The firm aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing actionable insights and a strong filter for relevant information in equity analysis [1]

Investment Strategy - The company focuses on identifying high-potential winners before they break out, emphasizing asymmetric opportunities with an upside potential of 2-3 times outweighing the downside risk [1] - The investment methodology includes leadership and management analysis, market disruption and competitive positioning, financial health and risk management, valuation and asymmetric risk/reward, and portfolio construction and risk control [1] Leadership & Management Analysis - Proven track record in scaling businesses is essential for investment decisions [1] - Smart capital allocation and insider ownership are key factors [1] - Consistent revenue growth and credible guidance are prioritized [1] Market Disruption & Competitive Positioning - A strong technology moat and first-mover advantage are critical for success [1] - Network effects that drive exponential growth are sought after [1] - Market penetration in high-growth industries is a focus area [1] Financial Health & Risk Management - Sustainable revenue growth with efficient cash flow is a priority [1] - A strong balance sheet and long-term survival runway are essential [1] - Avoiding excessive dilution and financial weakness is emphasized [1] Valuation & Asymmetric Risk/Reward - Revenue multiples compared to peers and DCF modeling are used for valuation [1] - Institutional backing and market sentiment analysis are considered [1] - Ensuring downside protection with significant upside potential is a key strategy [1] Portfolio Construction & Risk Control - Core positions (50-70%) consist of high-confidence, stable plays [1] - Growth bets (20-40%) are high-risk, high-reward opportunities [1] - Speculative investments (5-10%) are aimed at moonshot disruptors with massive potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) is currently rated as a HOLD, with the analyst waiting for the earnings hype to subside before considering a potential buy [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The analyst identifies as a value dividend investor focused on long-term compounding [1]. - The approach involves investing in companies that are heavily undervalued with significant upside potential [1]. - The goal is to eventually live off dividends generated from long-term growth dividend companies [1].

Financial Performance - Berkshire recorded operating earnings of $47.4 billion in 2024, an increase from $37.35 billion in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 27.3%[26] - The insurance-underwriting segment generated $9.02 billion in earnings in 2024, up from $5.43 billion in 2023, marking a significant increase of 66.5%[30] - Investment income from insurance rose to $13.67 billion in 2024, compared to $9.57 billion in 2023, representing a growth of 43.5%[30] - Berkshire paid a total of $26.8 billion in corporate income taxes in 2024, accounting for about 5% of total corporate tax payments in the U.S.[34] - 53% of Berkshire's 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings, indicating challenges in certain sectors[21] Insurance Operations - GEICO's performance improved significantly under Todd Combs, contributing to the overall increase in insurance earnings[22] - The property-casualty insurance pricing strengthened during 2024, influenced by increased damage from convective storms[23] - Berkshire's insurance business generated $32 billion of after-tax profits from underwriting over the past two decades, equating to approximately 3.3 cents per dollar of sales after income tax[63] - The float of Berkshire's insurance operations grew from $46 billion to $171 billion, indicating a significant increase in available capital for investment[63] - Berkshire's insurance operations are characterized by a unique financial model, receiving payment upfront and incurring costs later, which allows for substantial investment of "float"[55] - Berkshire's insurance business is not dependent on reinsurers, providing a material and enduring cost advantage[62] - The company emphasizes the importance of intelligent underwriting to manage risks and maintain profitability in the insurance sector[62] Investment Strategy - Berkshire's approach to capital allocation emphasizes long-term investments, with a focus on reinvestment over dividend payments[35] - Berkshire's ownership in marketable equities decreased from $354 billion to $272 billion, while the value of non-quoted controlled equities increased[42] - Berkshire's aggregate cost for its Japanese investments was $13.8 billion, with a market value of $23.5 billion at year-end[70] - Expected annual dividend income from Japanese investments in 2025 is projected to be $812 million, while the interest cost of yen-denominated debt is estimated at $135 million[72] - Berkshire's investment in five Japanese companies has been ongoing since July 2019, with a commitment to keep holdings below 10% of each company's shares[67] - Berkshire's strategy includes a focus on American equities, with a commitment to long-term investments rather than cash-equivalent assets[43] Market Value Growth - Berkshire's compounded annual gain from 1965 to 2024 is 19.9%, compared to the S&P 500's 10.4%[89] - Overall gain for Berkshire from 1964 to 2024 is 5,502,284%, while the S&P 500's gain is 39,054%[89] - In 2023, Berkshire's per-share market value increased by 15.8%, while the S&P 500 increased by 26.3%[89] - In 2024, Berkshire's projected per-share market value growth is 25.5%, compared to the S&P 500's 25.0%[89] - In 2022, Berkshire's per-share market value increased by 4.0%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 18.1%[89] - In 2021, Berkshire's per-share market value increased by 29.6%, while the S&P 500 increased by 28.7%[89] - In 2020, Berkshire's per-share market value increased by 2.4%, while the S&P 500 increased by 18.4%[89] - In 2019, Berkshire's per-share market value increased by 11.0%, while the S&P 500 increased by 31.5%[89] - In 2018, Berkshire's per-share market value increased by 2.8%, while the S&P 500 decreased by 4.4%[89] - In 2017, Berkshire's per-share market value increased by 21.9%, while the S&P 500 increased by 21.8%[89]