Group 1 - The expectation of a smaller U.S. trade deficit and a weaker U.S. dollar may benefit commodities in the upcoming year [1][3] - The performance of commodities is more influenced by the dollar than by broad-based industrial demand [2] - Concerns about higher inflation due to the need to restock fully tariffed goods could impact market dynamics [3][4] Group 2 - Commodities have shown strong performance, with the best returns since 2017, driven by the debasement of the U.S. dollar [5] - The bullish outlook on copper miners and energy, particularly oil, is based on their potential despite market skepticism [6] - Earnings are a critical factor for equities, with expectations for continued good earnings supporting market performance [7] Group 3 - There is significant fiscal spending globally, which supports commodities and emerging markets [8] - Emerging market equities are expected to outperform U.S. equities, with a notable shift in global equity leadership [9] - The forecast indicates better earnings growth in the U.S. in 2026 and 2027, suggesting a period of emerging market and non-U.S. equity outperformance [10]

Bond Market & Treasury Auction Analysis - Treasury's 10-year note auction took place [1] - Yields are dipping potentially due to headlines about the phone call and Fed's Cook being dovish [2] - Auction wasn't terrific [3] Market Trends & Indicators - Two times traded four and a quarter around 11:40 Eastern and 1 Eastern [3] - 30s minus 10 spread (the knob) is a favorite in Chicago [3] - The 30s minus 10 spread is almost triple what it was at the end of last year, rising from 20 to almost 60, implying a steeper curve and stubbornly high long rates [4]