6 July 2025 | 9:31PM EDT Global Markets Analyst The Macro Drivers of Implied Volatility (Rosenberg) Isabella Rosenberg +1(212)357-7628 | isabella.rosenberg@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n FX volatility has declined in recent weeks, alongside more beni ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic and trade dynamics in Emerging Asia, focusing on the implications of the 90-day tariff deadline and its potential outcomes for various countries including China, Japan, India, and South Korea [2][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Deadline Scenarios**: The 90-day tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, with three potential outcomes: - Announce deals/frameworks with some trade partners - Extend deadlines with certain partners - Set new tariff rates for remaining partners [2][5]. 2. **Base Case Scenario**: The most likely outcome is an extension of the current status quo, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff for a longer period. This scenario suggests limited market reactions, with a slight risk-on sentiment but constrained upside [3][5]. 3. **Bull Case Scenario**: If trade deals are announced, effective tariffs may decrease, leading to a more optimistic market outlook. This could result in equities outperforming and a stronger performance from export-oriented currencies like KRW and TWD [6][9]. 4. **Bear Case Scenario**: If tariffs increase significantly, particularly above 15%, it could lead to a risk-off market reaction, with a stronger USD and concerns about global growth impacting Asia FX negatively [7][9]. 5. **Market Reactions**: The actual announcements regarding tariffs may be complex, potentially incorporating elements from all scenarios. The focus will remain on effective tariff rates and the risks of subsequent increases, alongside ongoing diversification from USD overweight positions [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Japan's Industrial Production**: Japan's industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM in May, which was below expectations. Companies are reportedly curbing production in anticipation of potential negative impacts from US tariffs [11]. 2. **China's Economic Indicators**: Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in China exceeded expectations in June, indicating continued growth momentum. However, domestic demand, particularly in property sales, may be waning [11][12]. 3. **India's Trade Dynamics**: Reciprocal tariffs have led to a front-loading of exports to the US, with a notable 25% YoY increase in Indian exports to the US from January to May 2025. However, this has not improved the overall trade balance due to a decline in exports to other regions [12]. 4. **South Korea's GDP Forecast**: The GDP forecast for South Korea has been adjusted downwards for Q2 2025 to 0.3% QoQ, but expectations for Q3 and Q4 have been revised upwards due to anticipated recovery in consumption and positive fiscal measures [12]. 5. **Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts**: The report includes projections for inflation and interest rates across various countries in the region, indicating a cautious outlook for monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in Emerging Asia.

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Clinical Programs & Data - CT-0508 monotherapy showed stable disease (SD) in 29% (4/14) of patients, with 44% SD in HER2 3+ patients [13] - 75% (6/8) of HER2 3+ patients exhibited a decrease in ctDNA, with reductions up to 93% [17] - CT-0525, a CAR-Monocyte therapy, has a ~2,000-fold increased exposure compared to CT-0508 in preclinical models [44] - The first patient was treated with CT-0525 in 2Q 2024, with initial data expected in 4Q 2024 [43] In Vivo CAR-M Collaboration with Moderna - The collaboration includes up to 12 targets, with 7 nominated [64] - Carisma received an $80 million upfront payment and is eligible for over $3 billion in potential milestones and royalties [64] - Nomination of the first development candidate targeting GPC3 for HCC triggered a $2 million milestone payment [6, 65] Financial Status - As of June 30, 2024, Carisma had $40.4 million in cash and cash equivalents [100] - The company's cash runway is expected to last into 3Q 2025 [6, 100] Fibrosis Program - Preclinical data demonstrates that engineered macrophages can reduce liver fibrosis, with Relaxin-IL10 macrophages showing >100% reduction in collagen in one model [84] - Nomination of a development candidate for liver fibrosis is expected in 1Q 2025 [8, 93]

Key Takeaways NIKE's classic sneaker sales are declining due to shifting trends and consumer price sensitivity. Growth in running, training, basketball and sportswear is partially offsetting weaker classic demand. NKE plans to reduce classic footwear mix further in FY26, with unit volumes likely down double digits.NIKE, Inc. (NKE) is a globally recognized American brand specializing in athletic footwear, apparel and sports equipment. The company has long been considered as a leader in the sneaker market.H ...

Bitcoin regains $109,000 level on positive macro cues as market eyes next driver https://t.co/7TgGPGJ4F8 ...

July 2, 2025 09:30 AM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific M Idea The Trio That Could Change Everything — If It's Allowed To China doesn't just need new stimulus, a new growth algorithm is needed too. The "trio" of reforms could eventually form the basis for that. But old habits and incentives die hard. The 15th Five- Year-Plan will be the real litmus test: is Beijing ready to stop rewarding what it wants to reduce? At the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs meeting hosted this Tuesday (July 1 ...

Italian fashion house Armani Group reported a 5 percent drop in sales last year after the luxury sector was hit by macro-economic uncertainty and slowing demand in China https://t.co/GSUT3QNlw3 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company affirmed its full-year beer revenue growth outlook despite industry weakness observed in May and June, indicating confidence in achieving guidance [10][12] - The first quarter was described as normal, with a depletion decline similar to the previous quarter, and the company expects sequential improvement as it moves into easier comparisons [11][12] - The impact of incremental tariffs is projected to be around $20 million, with a 20 basis point hit to margins, but the company believes it can still deliver margins in line with previous guidance [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on maintaining strong brand health metrics and loyalty among consumers, particularly within the Hispanic demographic, which constitutes a significant portion of its business [19][20] - Marketing investments were higher in Q1 due to seasonality, with a focus on high-impact events to strengthen brand presence [27][28] - The introduction of new products like SunBrew and adjustments in pricing strategies are aimed at capturing market share in the high-end light beer segment [33][57] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported high single-digit share gains in the market, indicating a positive trend in brand performance despite overall market challenges [21][52] - The competitive landscape has intensified, with increased marketing activities from competitors, particularly in the high-end light beer category [25][57] - The company is seeing a consistent percentage of alcohol in consumer baskets, despite overall basket sizes shrinking due to economic concerns [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to controlling its controllables, focusing on distribution and price pack architecture to adapt to consumer spending behaviors [52][54] - There is an ongoing emphasis on innovation, with new product introductions expected to contribute significantly to growth [33] - The company is exploring opportunities for diversification in its portfolio, particularly in the non-alcoholic sector, which has gained traction since the last investor day [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflation and unemployment, but expressed confidence in the brand's resilience and consumer loyalty [12][13] - The company anticipates a return to more normal consumer behavior as socioeconomic conditions improve, particularly for its Hispanic consumer base [40][41] - The rebuilding efforts following California wildfires are expected to provide a long-term tailwind, although short-term challenges remain due to macroeconomic factors [61][63] Other Important Information - The company has implemented a robust hedging policy to manage currency and commodity risks, particularly concerning the peso [47][49] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relationships with consumers and adapting to their changing needs in the current economic climate [20][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in beer revenue growth outlook and margin guidance - Management confirmed confidence in the unchanged full-year beer revenue growth outlook, noting that the quarter was as expected despite consumer concerns [10][12] Question: Impact of socioeconomic factors on consumer behavior - Management indicated that while occasions for beer consumption have decreased, interest in beer remains strong among consumers, suggesting a potential return to normalcy [40][41] Question: Marketing strategy and competitive landscape - Management discussed increased marketing investments and the competitive landscape, emphasizing the strength of their brands and loyalty among consumers [25][27] Question: Pricing environment in beer - Management acknowledged additional price promotions in the market and indicated adjustments in their pricing strategy to capture share in the high-end light beer segment [57] Question: Rebuilding after California wildfires - Management noted that rebuilding efforts would create job opportunities and potentially boost beer consumption, with this upside factored into their guidance [61][63]

Key Takeaways CMG's digital sales made up 35.4% of Q1 revenues, driven by mobile orders and strong brand loyalty. Comparable sales fell 0.4% as macro uncertainty led to fewer transactions despite menu innovation. CMG is boosting summer marketing and hospitality efforts to counter soft in-store traffic trends.Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) continues to see impressive traction in its digital sales, which represented a healthy 35.4% of total revenues in first-quarter 2025. The brand's mobile and online platfor ...