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Services economy is doing well, says Oak Hill's Glenn August
CNBC Television· 2025-09-03 16:03
Macro Environment - The macro environment is currently benign, with stocks at a record high and the economy stable, recession is not expected [1] - Earnings growth has been good and the tariff situation has generally abated [1] - The distress ratio is under 5%, and the amount of bank loans trading under 80 is 4% [2] - Inflation has clearly come down, with ongoing debate about whether it will settle at 2% or 3% [3] Company Performance & Investment Strategy - The company manages $100 billion of capital and invests in hundreds of companies, observing good earnings across the board [2] - The company is not seeing major challenges in pricing, despite tariffs, particularly in the areas where it invests [4][5] - The market has largely absorbed current tariff levels without significant inflationary impact [6] - The company focuses on picking good businesses and credits, rather than relying heavily on maintenance covenants [11][12] Interest Rates & Market Outlook - The forward curve suggests five rate cuts over the next year, though the company considers this potentially aggressive [7] - Long rates, particularly the 10-year and 30-year rates, are key considerations given the size of the deficit [8] - The market is digesting the cost of capital, and current levels are not considered worrisome [8]
If You'd Invested $1,000 in JPMorgan Chase (JPM) 5 Years Ago, Here's How Much You'd Have Today
The Motley Fool· 2025-08-04 09:05
For such a mature and massive entity, it can be surprising to learn that JPMorgan's stock has produced a total return of 253% in the past five years (as of July 31). This comes from a combination of the share price appreciating and the company's dividend payout, turning $1,000 into $3,530 today. What's impressive is that the business has successfully navigated a dynamic macro environment. Interest rates were extremely low after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, before rising rapidly in 2022. They appear t ...
Camping World Holdings(CWH) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-30 13:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $2 billion for Q2 2025, an increase of over 9% driven by unit volume increases in both new and used RVs exceeding 20% [28] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $142.2 million compared to $105.6 million in the previous year [29] - SG&A as a percentage of gross profit improved by 276 basis points year over year [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company set a record selling 45,000 RV units in the quarter, with finance and insurance revenue reaching $200 million, the highest ever [6][28] - Gross margins exceeded 30%, indicating growth was not driven by heavy discounting [11] - The company achieved over 14% market share of all new and used RVs registered in North America year to date [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same store unit growth trends showed high teens growth in used RV sales and high single digits in new RV sales year over year as of July [25] - The company expects a small bump in the new RV market in 2026, projecting an increase of 15,000 to 20,000 units [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building a customer ecosystem through various services, including finance, insurance, and service offerings [7][12] - There is a commitment to continue selling affordable units to build customer lifetime value and increase transaction frequency [12] - The company is exploring acquisitions and investments to grow its Good Sam business, which reported record revenue [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in navigating a challenging macro environment, stating that 2025 is expected to be tougher than 2024 due to tariffs and interest rates [24] - The company anticipates double-digit growth in used RV sales moving forward [15] - Management is optimistic about the scalability of their used RV supply chain and expects continued growth in this segment [27] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with approximately $118 million in cash and has paid down $75 million of long-term debt since October [30] - The balance sheet is described as the strongest ever, with significant inventory and real estate holdings [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: ASPs and Competitor Pricing - Management views ASP weakness as an opportunity to grow the customer base rather than a problem, focusing on profitability rather than competitor pricing [33][34] Question: Used Gross Profit Margin Sustainability - Management expects used gross profit margins to remain in the range of 19% to 19.5% for the back half of the year [39] Question: Changes in Pricing Expectations - Management anticipates a continued decline in new RV pricing year over year, but expects seasonal improvements in ASPs [58][60] Question: Trade-in Cycle and Customer Retention - The company emphasizes multiple customer touchpoints post-purchase to enhance retention and upsell opportunities [94][96] Question: M&A Activity - Management clarified that they are not on pause for M&A but are being more thoughtful about capital allocation while looking for opportunities [73] Question: Impact of Tariffs on Pricing - Management indicated that any increase in new pricing could lead to margin expansion due to their contract manufacturing advantages [81]