🗞️ December Fed cut odds collapsed to 29.8%, fueled by delayed jobs data and macro uncertainty.🗞️ Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought the dip ($39.6M into crypto stocks like Circle and BitMine.)🗞️ Trump's CFTC nominee, Mike Selig says he intends to champion a clear regulatory path for the U.S.@JennSanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily."Thank you Figure Markets 🫵 for being a sponsor of the CoinDesk Media Network. ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant year, but losses towards the end overshadowed the earlier months of innovation and regulatory support [1] - As of November 18, macroeconomic uncertainty has impacted the market [1] Summary by Categories Market Performance - Bitcoin had a massive year with notable gains, but recent losses have raised concerns [1] - The end-of-year losses have overshadowed the impressive performance in the preceding months [1] Innovation and Regulation - The earlier months of the year were characterized by innovation and favorable regulatory developments [1] - Regulatory tailwinds contributed positively to the market dynamics during the year [1] Macroeconomic Factors - As of mid-November, macroeconomic uncertainty is affecting investor sentiment and market stability [1]

Crypto market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 10, a level indicating “extreme fear,” marking a near nine-month low as it’s the lowest reading since late February. The plunge in sentiment follows a week of losses across major cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin's decline to just under $96,000 in a major sell-off that, for the second time this month, saw the cryptocurrency drop below the $100,000 mark. Crypto Fear and Greed Index chart (alternative.me) The index, a ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback primarily due to short selling, with a drop of 1.5% from $115,000, leading to a total open interest increase of 2.3% and an additional $591 million in notional value [1] - The cumulative volume delta of perpetual futures on offshore exchanges decreased, indicating that short sellers were driving the decline, with a subsequent 3.5% drop to $107,500 and a 4% increase in open interest adding $1.03 billion in exposure [2] - Despite the overall bearish sentiment, spot demand on U.S.-based exchanges like Coinbase remained mostly positive, suggesting ongoing buy-the-dip activity from spot investors [3] Market Dynamics - A liquidation event of $724 million occurred within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $536 million, indicating that bulls had leveraged up in anticipation of a recovery [4] - The market is facing macroeconomic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions, contributing to the volatility and the need for a period of rebalancing [4][5] - Analysts express a bearish outlook, with expectations of continued volatility as macro uncertainties persist, despite some dip-buying efforts from spot investors [5]

Since that episode, markets staged a short-lived bounce, but momentum has turned again.Macro uncertainty is back: S&P and Nasdaq rebounded 2%+, yet Asian equities slid >2%.BTC failed to hold above key SMAs (~$117k/$116k) and is testing support near $109k, with funding rates flipping negative as derivatives unwind continues.2/3 ...

Group 1 - The political landscape, particularly President Trump's choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, could significantly influence the cryptocurrency cycle, making predictions more challenging [1][2] - CEO Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital Inc. indicated that a selection favoring aggressive interest rate cuts could initiate a substantial upward trend in cryptocurrency prices [2][4] - Novogratz highlighted the current macroeconomic uncertainty, exacerbated by the potential impact of artificial intelligence, complicating the ability to predict market cycles [3] Group 2 - Stephen Miran, a new Fed governor appointed by Trump, has called for aggressive interest rate cuts, which contrasts with the views of other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members [4] - Trump has been critical of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for maintaining high interest rates, advocating for cuts to support economic growth [4] - Cryptocurrency bettors on Polymarket estimate a 21% chance that Trump will appoint Christopher Waller as a "shadow chair" before the end of the year [5]

Key Federal Reserve (Fed) data this week, including speeches from Chair Jerome Powell, alongside Friday’s release of the critical PCE inflation figures, are shaping up as important crypto market drivers. After Monday’s $1.8 billion crypto liquidation shook investor confidence, traders are bracing for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy stance that could ripple across risk assets. For Bitcoin, analysts remain sharply divided on whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency is headed for a retraceme ...

Group 1 - Home Depot missed earnings expectations with earnings of $3.56 per share, falling short by $0.03, but reported stronger-than-expected sales of $39.9 billion, exceeding analyst expectations by approximately $600 million and reflecting a year-over-year growth of 9.5% [3][4] - The company is facing challenges due to higher interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty, which are limiting home sales and improvement projects, thereby softening demand for its products [3][4] - Home Depot reiterated its full-year guidance, projecting total revenue growth of about 2.8% and comparable-store sales growth of 1% [4] Group 2 - The company did not repurchase any shares during the quarter but continues to pay a dividend with a yield of 2.4%, while reducing its share count by over 7% in the past five years [5] - Despite current headwinds, Home Depot's stock is priced only 12% below its all-time high, indicating that investors are aware of the challenges but do not view the stock as a bargain [6][7] - The stock is considered a good option for long-term investors, although those expecting significant gains with economic recovery may be disappointed [6][7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 21% year on year, while net income rose by 16% [7][37] - The overall performance of the company was within expectations despite some challenges [6][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments platform saw a 17% year-on-year growth in transaction volumes, with total payment volume (TPV) growing by 23% [18] - Marketplace GMV grew by 20% year on year, with e-commerce GMV increasing by 23% [21][22] - Fintech origination volumes grew by 18%, but net income growth was muted at 8% due to higher costs [31][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-grocery business experienced a significant growth of 64% in GMV year on year, with active consumers reaching nearly 1 million [9] - The introduction of smartphone registration requirements in Kazakhstan temporarily impacted smartphone demand, reducing GMV growth by approximately 7 percentage points [23][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its fintech offerings, particularly in Turkey, with plans to invest around $300 million [16][17] - The strategy includes acquiring Rabobank to enhance fintech capabilities in Turkey [16][17] - The company aims to leverage high interest rates to grow its deposit base, which is seen as a long-term investment strategy [12][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the high interest rate environment as a challenge but also a potential future tailwind for profitability [40][41] - There is a conservative outlook for GMV growth, now expected to be between 15% to 20% due to macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory changes [38][40] Other Important Information - The company successfully raised €650 million in Eurobonds, marking its first issuance in this market [15][16] - The introduction of a 10% tax on revenue from investments is anticipated to impact net income [41][42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the macro uncertainty in Kazakhstan? - Management indicated that lower oil prices and currency volatility contribute to macro uncertainty, but payment trends are expected to remain resilient [46][47] Question: How has the boycott in Turkey affected near-term outlook? - Management stated that the boycott does not significantly impact long-term outlook, focusing instead on product quality and consumer experience [49][50] Question: What are the implications of the smartphone registration requirement? - Management clarified that the requirement led to increased smartphone prices and a temporary drop in demand, but this is expected to normalize [58][75] Question: How does the company plan to address the boycott-driven drag in Turkey? - Management suggested that this is a question better directed to the Hepsiburada management team, as they will provide updates on their strategies [111] Question: What is the expected impact of higher deposit rates on funding costs? - Management expects an increase in funding costs by 100 to 150 basis points due to higher deposit rates [101][102]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Company reported a revenue increase of 21% year over year and a net income increase of 16% [6][38] - Overall performance was within expectations despite challenges in GMV due to regulatory changes [6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments platform saw a 16% revenue growth and a 21% net income growth, with transaction volumes up 17% year on year [18][20] - Marketplace GMV grew by 20% year on year, with e-commerce GMV increasing by 23% [21][22] - Fintech origination volumes grew by 18%, but net income was muted at 8% due to increased cost of risk [31][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-grocery business experienced a significant growth of 64% in GMV year over year, with active consumers reaching nearly 1 million [8][9] - Smartphone sales were impacted by new registration requirements, leading to a temporary decline in demand [24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Company is focusing on expanding its e-grocery business and entering new cities to support growth [9][10] - The acquisition of Rabobank is aimed at enhancing fintech capabilities in Turkey, with an investment of approximately $300 million planned [16][17] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted macroeconomic uncertainties, including high interest rates and potential impacts on consumer spending [50][62] - Despite short-term challenges, the outlook for the year remains robust, with expectations of normalization in smartphone demand [39][60] Other Important Information - The company raised Eurobonds amounting to $650 million at a 6.25% interest rate, marking its first issuance [15][16] - A 10% tax on revenue from investments is expected to be introduced, which could impact net income [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the macro uncertainty in Kazakhstan? - Management noted that lower oil prices and currency volatility contribute to macroeconomic uncertainty, but payment trends are expected to remain resilient [49][50] Question: How has the boycott in Turkey affected your outlook? - Management stated that the boycott does not change the long-term outlook but may impact near-term integration efforts [52] Question: What are the implications of the smartphone registration requirements? - Management clarified that the new regulations led to increased prices and a temporary drop in demand, but normalization is expected in the second half of the year [58][60] Question: How does the deposit cost compare with other banks? - Management indicated that their deposit rates are competitive but not the highest in the market, focusing on consumer experience [124][125] Question: What is the strategy for the Rabobank acquisition? - The acquisition aims to enhance product development and meet capital requirements for operating a licensed bank in Turkey [88][90]