PresentationOperator Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining CWAN's 2026 Outlook Webinar. We have a great presentation lined up that takes a data-driven look at the U.S. economic outlook and the forces shaping markets as we head into 2026. Investors are balancing persistent macro uncertainty with evolving portfolio risks, making it critical to separate short-term noise from signals that truly matter. Before we get started, I wanted to run through a few quick housekeeping notes to help you get the most of ...

Core Viewpoint - As 2025 approaches, there is a growing debate regarding concentration and high valuations in large-cap stocks, alongside concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty and economic conditions, leading to a collective call for diversification, particularly highlighting opportunities in small-cap stocks [1] Group 1 - The discussion emphasizes the need for diversification in investment strategies [1] - There are concerns about the concentration of investments in large-cap stocks and their lofty valuations [1] - The macroeconomic environment and economic conditions are contributing to the call for diversification [1] Group 2 - Small-cap stocks are identified as a specific area of opportunity within the diversification strategy [1]

Group 1 - Gold and silver have significantly outperformed Bitcoin in yearly returns, with gold returning 86% and silver 60%, while Bitcoin has declined by 1.2% [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to fears of monetary debasement, macroeconomic uncertainty, and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, leading investors to anticipate a potential "policy error" from the Fed [2] - Key inflation indicators, such as Core PCE, are trending towards 3% annually, particularly in services and housing, contributing to concerns about persistent inflation [3] Group 2 - Traditional equities, such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, have also seen gains of 21% and 16% year-to-date, respectively, contrasting with Bitcoin's performance [3] - Bitcoin is currently experiencing a phase of "mid-cycle repair" following a liquidation shock in October, while equities are in a "late-cycle melt-up" driven by earnings growth and AI investments [4] - On-chain data indicates an increase in total supply in loss, suggesting capitulation among short-term holders, which is characteristic of a mid-cycle reset rather than a bear market [5] Group 3 - Despite Bitcoin's current underperformance, there is an expectation that its disconnect from precious metals and U.S. equities will be temporary, with forecasts indicating a recovery aligned with global liquidity and equity markets [6]

Key Takeaways C3.ai posted a wider Q2 loss y/y with revenues down 20.3% and margins contracting to 54%.Results were hit by a 43-day government shutdown and weaker sales execution across segments.Federal, Defense and Aerospace bookings jumped 89% and made up 45% of total bookings.C3.ai, Inc. (AI) reported decent results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Oct. 31, 2025). While earnings and revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, both metrics fell sharply year over year.AI stock tumbled 1.7% duri ...

Gold is up nearly 1% on Monday, while risk-on assets such as cryptos and stocks are down amid macro uncertainty. Gold futures contracts are trading at $4,262.35, just 2.95% below their record high of $4,381.44. The precious metal is within $130 of setting a new all-time peak. Bitcoin’s overnight crash has shrunk the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies by over 6% on the day, from $3.191 trillion to $3.016 trillion. Bitcoin is down 6% on the day and is currently trading at just under $86,000, accordin ...

Core Viewpoint - The BDC (Business Development Company) sector is facing caution due to macroeconomic uncertainty and declining interest rates, which, while making BDCs more attractive from a valuation perspective, suggests a need for careful consideration by investors [1]. Group 1 - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by uncertainty and falling interest rates, impacting the attractiveness of BDCs [1]. - Despite the valuation appeal of BDCs, a cautious approach is recommended for investors [1]. - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting due diligence before making investment decisions [1].

Market Trends & Regulatory Landscape - December Fed cut odds collapsed to 29.8% due to delayed jobs data and macro uncertainty [1] - Trump's CFTC nominee, Mike Selig, intends to champion a clear regulatory path for the U S [1] Investment Activities - Ark Invest bought the dip, investing $39.6 million into crypto stocks like Circle and BitMine [1] Media & Sponsorship - "CoinDesk Daily" is hosted by @JennSanasie [1] - Figure Markets sponsors the CoinDesk Media Network [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant year, but losses towards the end overshadowed the earlier months of innovation and regulatory support [1] - As of November 18, macroeconomic uncertainty has impacted the market [1] Summary by Categories Market Performance - Bitcoin had a massive year with notable gains, but recent losses have raised concerns [1] - The end-of-year losses have overshadowed the impressive performance in the preceding months [1] Innovation and Regulation - The earlier months of the year were characterized by innovation and favorable regulatory developments [1] - Regulatory tailwinds contributed positively to the market dynamics during the year [1] Macroeconomic Factors - As of mid-November, macroeconomic uncertainty is affecting investor sentiment and market stability [1]

Core Insights - The crypto market sentiment has sharply declined, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 10, indicating "extreme fear," marking a near nine-month low [1] - Bitcoin has experienced significant losses, trading just under $96,000, and has fallen below the $100,000 mark for the second time this month [1][2] - The wider crypto market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 index, has lost approximately 5.8% of its value over the past week [2] Market Dynamics - The sell-off is attributed to profit-taking by long-term holders, institutional outflows, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the liquidation of leveraged long positions [3] - There are diminishing expectations for an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with the odds of a 25 basis point cut now near 50% according to the CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Recent delays in the release of key economic indicators, including October inflation, due to a government shutdown have left traders with less macro data to analyze [4] Liquidity Concerns - The crypto market is facing low liquidity, which has not fully recovered from the major crash in October, resulting in structurally lower order-book depth across major centralized exchanges [4]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback primarily due to short selling, with a drop of 1.5% from $115,000, leading to a total open interest increase of 2.3% and an additional $591 million in notional value [1] - The cumulative volume delta of perpetual futures on offshore exchanges decreased, indicating that short sellers were driving the decline, with a subsequent 3.5% drop to $107,500 and a 4% increase in open interest adding $1.03 billion in exposure [2] - Despite the overall bearish sentiment, spot demand on U.S.-based exchanges like Coinbase remained mostly positive, suggesting ongoing buy-the-dip activity from spot investors [3] Market Dynamics - A liquidation event of $724 million occurred within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $536 million, indicating that bulls had leveraged up in anticipation of a recovery [4] - The market is facing macroeconomic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions, contributing to the volatility and the need for a period of rebalancing [4][5] - Analysts express a bearish outlook, with expectations of continued volatility as macro uncertainties persist, despite some dip-buying efforts from spot investors [5]