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摩根士丹利:ASML-2026 年的不确定性抵消了强劲的订单储备
摩根· 2025-07-16 15:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASML Holding NV is Equal-weight [4][64]. Core Insights - The Q2 order book for ASML Holding NV was ahead of expectations at €5.5 billion, compared to a consensus of €4.5 billion, with €2.3 billion attributed to EUV [2][6]. - The company has adjusted its full-year 2025 guidance to approximately 15% growth relative to 2024, aligning with a previous midpoint of €32.5 billion [2][6]. - ASML forecasts a 30% growth in the EUV business and a 20% growth in IBM sales, while DUV is expected to remain stable compared to FY24 [2][6]. - The company anticipates that revenue from China will exceed 25% in FY25, consistent with the backlog [2][6]. - Commentary for FY26 indicates preparation for growth, but confirmation is pending due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The strong order intake of €5.5 billion includes €2.3 billion from EUV, implying around 10 tools sold [6]. - Margins exceeded expectations due to improved IBM sales, although a slowdown in upgrades is anticipated for H2, leading to weaker gross margins [6]. - The guidance for 2025 has been tightened to a mid-point growth of approximately 15% year-over-year compared to 2024 [6]. Market Position - ASML's market capitalization is currently €280.763 billion, with a net debt of €(2.267) billion as of December 2025 [4]. - The price target set for ASML is €660.00, based on a mid-cycle 2-year forward P/E multiple of approximately 25x [4][9]. Industry Outlook - The industry view for European Semiconductors is In-Line, indicating expected performance in line with the broader market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [4][35].