Core Insights - ASML Holding N.V. is ranked fifth among the 20 most profitable stocks over the last 20 years [1] - Berenberg raised its price target for ASML to €1,300 from €1,200 while maintaining a Buy rating [1] - Bernstein increased its price target for ASML to $1,642 from $1,528 and maintained an Outperform rating, highlighting strong demand from China-related DUV [2] Company Overview - ASML Holding N.V. is a leading semiconductor equipment company specializing in advanced lithography systems for integrated circuit manufacturing [3]

【中信证券前瞻】阿斯麦（ASML）25Q4季报速评—营收指引&新签订单强劲 【财务概览】 1）公司当季营收97.2亿欧元（环比+29%），处于此前公司指引92-98亿欧元的上沿，且高于彭博一致预期的95.7 亿欧元。 2）公司当季毛利率52.2%（环比+0.6ppts），高于此前公司指引51%-53%的中值，且高于51.9%的彭博 【中信证券前瞻】阿斯麦（ASML）25Q4季报速评—营收指引&新签订单强劲 【财务概览】 1）公司当季营收97.2亿欧元（环比+29%），处于此前公司指引92-98亿欧元的上沿，且高于彭博一致预期的95.7 亿欧元。 4）业绩指引：（a）公司预计26Q1营收82-89亿欧元，高于81.3亿欧元的彭博一致预期；预计毛利率51%-53%，指 引中值低于52.5%的彭博一致预期。 （b）公司预计2026年营收340-390亿欧元（原指引为2026年营收不会低于2025年），指引中值高于彭博一致预期 的351亿欧元；预计毛利率51%-53%，指引中值低于52.9%的彭博一致预期。 【营收拆分】 1）按两大部门拆分：设备收入76亿欧元（环比+37%），服务收入21亿欧元（环比+9%）。 2） ...

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) is one of the AI Stocks in Focus on Wall Street. On January 26, Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock with a $1,642.00 price target. The firm anticipates a robust Q4 beat, with revenue and booking strength viewed as key upside drivers. With ASML set to report earnings on January 28th, the firm has previewed its latest data points and buy side expectations. It believes ASML will likely beat consensus expectations, with order st ...

on 26-Jan-2026 EU Semiconductors ASML Holding NV Rating ASML 4Q25 earnings preview: Will there be capacity constraint? ASML will soon report earnings on Wednesday 28th of January. We preview here with the latest data points and buy side expectations. We believe results are likely to beat, but order strength is more important. Import data suggests ASML could report EUR 9.7Bn in revenue, vs Cons 9.5Bn. Of note: strong import from China at EUR 3.27Bn in Q4, the highest level on record. However, it's more impor ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Tesla (TSLA)**: Focus on autonomous driving and order recovery - **Meta Platforms (META)**: Emphasis on e-commerce growth and AI tools - **ASML**: Discussion on DUV and EUV technology - **General Semiconductor Industry**: Insights on DUV market expectations Key Points and Arguments Tesla (TSLA) - TSLA shares increased by 4% due to the launch of an unsupervised robo-taxi pilot in Austin, indicating a positive development in autonomous driving technology [1] - Third-party data revealed a recovery in order volume for TSLA after a prolonged decline, suggesting improved market demand [1] Meta Platforms (META) - META shares rose by 5.6% following a positive report from Cleveland Research, which highlighted a surge in e-commerce and improved ROI as key drivers for better-than-expected Q4 performance [1] - The introduction of generative AI creative tools has positively impacted META's business, contributing to its strong performance [1] - Jefferies issued a bullish report, providing five reasons to buy the stock at lower prices, noting an 18% drop in stock price post-earnings and a PE ratio approximately 8 times lower than GOOGL, with limited downside and significant upside potential if execution improves [1] ASML - ASML shares increased by 2% as Bernstein and Bank of America raised their earnings forecasts and target prices [2] - Bernstein highlighted that the growth potential of DUV technology is underestimated compared to EUV, with an acceleration in advanced logic and DRAM capacity expansion driving increased DUV shipments [2] - The expected capital expenditure ratio for DUV and EUV over the next two years is projected to be approximately 50:50 [2] Semiconductor Industry Insights - Analysts believe market consensus on DUV is overly pessimistic, predicting that DUV revenue in the Chinese market will remain stable rather than decline [3] - Advanced logic capacity in China is expected to expand approximately sixfold within three years, supporting DUV demand [3] - Bank of America raised EPS estimates by 2%-6% due to stronger demand in the Chinese market, alongside growth from foundries, Intel, and memory chip demand [3] Other Important Insights - The optimism surrounding AI talent recruitment is expected to support stronger model release cycles for META, enhancing its core flywheel effect in recommendations and conversions [2] - New revenue streams, such as WhatsApp's annual revenue projected to grow from approximately $9 billion to about $36 billion by FY2029, indicate long-term value creation for META [2] - Threads is beginning to monetize, and Llama AI is expected to provide additional upside potential for META [2]

Core Insights - ASML's Q3 report shows net sales of €7.5 billion, with system equipment revenue at €5.6 billion and net profit at €2.1 billion, indicating stable performance year-over-year [2] - The company sees growth driven by demand for advanced processes and AI products, with a significant portion of new orders for EUV systems [2][4] - ASML's Q3 gross margin is stable at 51.6%, with R&D spending slightly up to €1.1 billion [2] Financial Performance - Q3 net sales were €7.5 billion, with system equipment revenue at €5.6 billion and net profit at €2.1 billion [2] - Gross margin for Q3 was 51.6%, remaining stable within the 51-53% range [2] - R&D investment increased to €1.1 billion compared to the same period last year [2] Market Outlook - ASML is optimistic about Q4, expecting net sales between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, with gross margin maintained at 51-53% [2] - The company anticipates a significant decline in sales in China by 2026, returning to more reasonable levels after a period of high demand [3][6] - The AI wave is reshaping global chip investment structures, with more clients entering the AI-related logic and memory chip markets [4][11] Strategic Initiatives - ASML has invested €1.3 billion in Mistral AI to integrate AI algorithms into lithography machine control and manufacturing optimization [4] - The company emphasizes the importance of expanding its customer base in the AI sector to support long-term industry health [4][11] Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards advanced nodes driven by AI applications, which is expected to sustain demand for EUV and High-NA lithography machines [4][11] - ASML management notes that the recent positive news flow in the semiconductor industry is helping to reduce uncertainty [5] - The company acknowledges that the high-margin DUV equipment sales in China may decline, potentially impacting overall gross margins [3][10]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a mixed performance with more stocks declining than rising, despite the index approaching 3900 points, reflecting a sense of anxiety as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches [1][3] - There is a notable trend of capital flowing into Hong Kong stocks, which are performing better than A-shares, indicating a structured market behavior where overseas funds typically invest in ADRs, then Hong Kong stocks, and finally A-shares [5][6] Investment Trends - Technology stocks remain favored by incoming foreign capital, as evidenced by the historical high achieved by "Ningde Times" [5] - Recent news from foreign media regarding advancements in DUV production and new data centers by China Unicom has generated positive sentiment in the market [5] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, leading to volatile trading behaviors as investors react emotionally rather than strategically [6][8] - Institutional funds are becoming increasingly active, signaling a generally optimistic outlook for the market, with stocks in the "active zone" reaching new highs [8][10] Institutional Behavior - The phenomenon of "three consecutive increases" and "five consecutive increases" in institutional activity indicates a growing engagement from institutional investors [10] - Despite the increased activity, there remains a significant number of stocks in the "watching zone," suggesting that not all stocks are benefiting from the positive market sentiment [13] Data Insights - The frequent rotation of market hotspots has led to some investor frustration, but the underlying issue is a lack of access to real data, which hinders understanding of market trends [16] - The concept of "institutional inventory" suggests that stocks with prolonged institutional support are likely to experience significant price movements, and recent "shakeout" phenomena indicate strong institutional backing [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASML Holding NV is Equal-weight [4][64]. Core Insights - The Q2 order book for ASML Holding NV was ahead of expectations at €5.5 billion, compared to a consensus of €4.5 billion, with €2.3 billion attributed to EUV [2][6]. - The company has adjusted its full-year 2025 guidance to approximately 15% growth relative to 2024, aligning with a previous midpoint of €32.5 billion [2][6]. - ASML forecasts a 30% growth in the EUV business and a 20% growth in IBM sales, while DUV is expected to remain stable compared to FY24 [2][6]. - The company anticipates that revenue from China will exceed 25% in FY25, consistent with the backlog [2][6]. - Commentary for FY26 indicates preparation for growth, but confirmation is pending due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The strong order intake of €5.5 billion includes €2.3 billion from EUV, implying around 10 tools sold [6]. - Margins exceeded expectations due to improved IBM sales, although a slowdown in upgrades is anticipated for H2, leading to weaker gross margins [6]. - The guidance for 2025 has been tightened to a mid-point growth of approximately 15% year-over-year compared to 2024 [6]. Market Position - ASML's market capitalization is currently €280.763 billion, with a net debt of €(2.267) billion as of December 2025 [4]. - The price target set for ASML is €660.00, based on a mid-cycle 2-year forward P/E multiple of approximately 25x [4][9]. Industry Outlook - The industry view for European Semiconductors is In-Line, indicating expected performance in line with the broader market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [4][35].

Group 1 - The article discusses ASML's market position and previous rating of Hold due to concerns over optimistic assumptions regarding DUV shipments, particularly to China [1] - The author emphasizes a focus on investing in companies within oligopolistic sectors that have high barriers to entry, indicating a preference for established firms over smaller companies [1] - The investment approach highlighted is growth at a reasonable price, with a mid- to long-term investment horizon [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in mechanical engineering and experience in the semiconductor sector, which informs their investment strategies [1] - The article aims to provide small investors with valuable investment ideas, particularly in semiconductors, robotics, and energy [1] - The author expresses a commitment to sharing insights and encourages engagement from readers through comments or direct messages [1]

ASML Conference Call Summary - May 31, 2023 Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed demand landscape, with a noted weakness in the memory market while logic segments, particularly automotive and industrial, remain strong [4][5] - ASML anticipates a 25% growth in top-line revenue for the year, driven by a 40% increase in EUV sales and a 30% increase in non-EUV sales [4][5] Key Insights on EUV and DUV - EUV bookings have decreased to $3.8 billion from a peak of $8 billion, attributed to the high average selling prices (ASP) of tools [7][8] - ASML has a backlog of $39 billion, which is approximately double the expected shipments for the year, indicating strong future demand despite current booking fluctuations [8][9] - The supply chain is expected to improve, which will help reduce lead times and potentially increase bookings in the upcoming quarters [10][11] Demand Dynamics - There is strong demand for mature logic nodes, driven by applications in distributed computing and electric vehicles, which are expected to sustain growth for years [15][16] - AI is seen as a long-term growth driver for leading-edge logic tools, although customers are currently in a cautious phase regarding capital spending [20][21] Supply-Demand Imbalances - The company reported a 20% undersupply in DUV systems, down from 30-50% in previous years, indicating an improvement in capacity and demand alignment [25][26] - Approximately 20% of ASML's backlog is attributed to China, with real demand noted for various semiconductor applications [28][30] Regulatory Impact - Recent U.S. export restrictions have had a limited indirect impact on ASML's backlog, estimated at around 5% [32][33] - The company remains optimistic about its ability to navigate these restrictions, particularly for mature immersion tools [36] Pricing and Margins - ASML is successfully negotiating higher ASPs to offset inflationary pressures, with expectations for continued improvement in gross margins [37][38] - The company has transitioned to an output-based service model for EUV tools, which is expected to enhance revenue predictability and margins [66][68] Future Outlook - ASML is preparing for the introduction of high-NA EUV tools, with initial shipments expected late this year and more significant production ramping up in 2025 [44][46] - The company anticipates that high-NA tools will complement rather than cannibalize low-NA tools, as they will be used for more critical layers in semiconductor manufacturing [50][51] Conclusion - ASML is positioned for growth in a dynamic semiconductor market, with strong demand across various segments and a robust backlog. The company is actively managing supply chain challenges and regulatory impacts while focusing on long-term trends such as AI and electric vehicles to drive future growth.