2025 was a positive year for the markets, but its performance was highly concentrated on a few megacap stocks. Going forward, I anticipate a more neutral-to-slightly positive performance for the markets as a whole. However, I believe capital rotationMy name is Myriam Hernandez Alvarez. I received the Electronics and Telecommunication Engineering degree from the Escuela Politecnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador, the M.Sc. degree in computer science from Ohio University, Athens, OH, USA, a graduate degree in Busin ...

After a three-year run for the S&P 500 ( SPY ), averaging returns over 20%, and an index P/E ratio that is running at double the historical average rate, there are valid doubts about the possibilityAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GLD, SVM, B, EOG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relat ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 is approaching its end, prompting investors to reassess their performance and strategies for the upcoming year [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on investing in companies with strong qualitative attributes, acquiring them at favorable prices based on fundamental analysis, and maintaining long-term holdings [2] - The investment approach emphasizes a concentrated portfolio aimed at minimizing losses while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners, often resulting in a 'Hold' rating for companies that do not meet growth or risk thresholds [2]

Core Insights - Investors achieved positive returns in 2025, with all three major indexes continuing to rally despite negative catalysts such as higher costs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The major indexes have shown resilience and growth throughout the year, indicating a strong market performance [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - The analysis emphasizes the importance of timely and quick analysis of earnings and macro-related events, particularly in the retail and real estate sectors [1]

Once again it's the time of year when analysts get seduced into making predictions for the next year's market performance. Some will be correct, some will be embarrassingly wrong. I would not advise changing your investment strategy based on being swayed by anyThough I have done quite a few different things over the course of a long life, I am best known as a writer of bestselling books about business and health. My success has come because I am a very curious person who doesn't just follow the herd and tru ...

Economic Outlook & Growth Drivers - The economy faces hurdles including government shutdowns affecting growth and delaying data collection [2] - "Prosec" (production for security) is a key positive thesis, focusing on domestic production in areas of national security interest like chips, data centers, AI, electricity, and rare earth minerals [3][4][5] - Tariffs are starting to impact earnings potential and may spread to consumers [6][7] - Tax cuts, tilted towards upper-end households, and deregulation are expected to inject cash into the economy in the first half of 2026 [9][10][11] - The dynamic properties inside the tax bill should facilitate 23% to 25% growth next year [14] Market & Investment Strategies - Companies are questioning spending on AI, which could drag on the economy if it slows [6][15] - The market and economy have diverged, with a "little i-shaped economy" where a small segment is doing well while the rest is just okay [16][17] - Fund manager surveys show bullish sentiment, but there's a disconnect with the real economy [19] - Tech companies may become more careful with spending plans [21] AI & Technology - Focus should shift from those working on AI to those working with AI, emphasizing adoption policies to drive productivity growth [24][25] - Data centers are driving significant debt issuance, estimated at $150 billion to $175 billion per year [30] - Governments are accelerating the development of AI value chains for economic and national security [52] - Sovereign AI is a key theme, with governments focusing on algorithms, critical minerals for semiconductors, and data [52][53] Crypto & Regulation - The Senate is considering the Clarity Act to provide a market structure for crypto in the US [33] - Banks are exploring stablecoins, which could lead to greater adoption and efficiency in the financial system [35][36] - Bitcoin is heavily influenced by leverage players, requiring new standards and safeguards [37][38][39] Trade & Geopolitics - Uncertainty around tariff policies is expected to continue, along with export controls and trade restrictions [42][43] - Companies are using scenario planning to manage geopolitical risks [46] - Geopolitical competition for resources like critical minerals and fresh water is a key story for 2026 [47][48] - Geopolitical competition around access to capital and the growing politization of capital allocation are reshaping the global financial system [50]

📉 2025 Market Outlook: A Year of DivergenceWe are excited to share our 2025 Ecosystem Outlook, supported by @IOGroup.While L1 prices broadly stagnated, app-layer revenue surged - signaling a potential inversion in value capture from the underlying chains to the apps built on top.Full report 👇 ...

David A. Johnson is founder and principal of Endurance Capital Management, a New Jersey Limited Liability Company. As an investor entrepreneur, David invests in stocks, bonds, options, ETFs, REITs, real estate, closed end funds and alternative investment funds such as hedge funds and private credit. With over 30 years’ experience in investing, David holds a Master of Science (MS) Degree in Finance, with a concentration in Investment Analysis, from Boston University, a Certificate in Financial Planning, and ...

US stocks are heading into 2026 with positive momentum and a host of bullish forecasts. Still, they will have to overcome plenty of potential threats to deliver a fourth year of strong gains https://t.co/EIloS1hOKe ...

Market Outlook - Deutsche Bank projects the S&P 500 to reach 7500 by the end of 2026, anticipating US stocks to slightly outperform international stocks and a strengthening dollar [1] - The dollar is expected to stabilize, avoiding the significant weakness seen in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - While the dollar experienced weakness in 2025, it's still up 7% since 2021, representing an annualized increase of around 2% [5] - Deutsche Bank's 12-month outlook includes dollar yen at 145 [5] Economic Factors - The strength of the US economy and double-digit equity market returns are expected to attract fund flows, supporting the dollar [4] - A potential 20% year-over-year increase in tax refunds in the first half of the year could stimulate spending and market activity [9] - Non-residential fixed asset investment, particularly in AI data centers, is driving GDP growth [12] Geopolitical Considerations - Geopolitical risks, especially concerning oil, remain a factor to monitor, although the situation is perceived as potentially more stable in 2026 compared to 2025 [6] Political and Policy Impact - Midterm election years typically exhibit a pattern of positive market performance in the first and fourth quarters, with a lull in the second and third quarters [8] - The market's reaction to the Trump administration and GOP policies, particularly regarding the "K-shaped economy," will be crucial [7][11]