Labour's leaders are deluding themselves if they think concern about an unwelcome market reaction will save their skins, writes Martin Ivens (via @opinion) https://t.co/1MXWVjaVMy ...

Get briefed ahead of your morning calls with the latest UK business headlines, key data and market reaction https://t.co/Lpn9mJF4xi ...

Economic Outlook - The potential end of the government shutdown is expected to boost economic activity, leading to a slight increase in yields [2][3] - The 10-year benchmark yield is currently at 4.10%, reflecting market reactions to the shutdown developments [3] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a push-pull scenario with fluctuations in yields between 4.08% and 4.16% due to mixed economic data and varying comments from the Federal Reserve [4] - There is caution regarding early data points post-shutdown, as they may be incomplete and require careful interpretation [4] Federal Reserve Policy - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will not initiate rate cuts in December, with decisions likely pushed to the first quarter of the following year [5][6] - Inflation remains around 3%, leading the Fed to seek more confidence in a downward trend before considering further rate cuts [5] Credit Market Opportunities - Credit markets are characterized by tight spreads, with low yields compared to treasuries, but the fundamentals for investment-grade bonds remain strong [7][8] - Intermediate-term bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are recommended for their potential positive real returns [8][9] Investment Recommendations - Mortgage-backed securities are highlighted for their government backing and higher yields compared to treasuries [9] - Municipal bonds are favored for investors in high tax brackets due to attractive tax-equivalent yields and generally high credit quality [10]

Bloomberg TV analyzes the latest Fed rate decision with top guests. A special "Bloomberg Surveillance: The Fed Decides" begins at 1:30 pm ET. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell then speaks at 2:30 pm ET after the decision. We'll have all the market reaction and analysis live. ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that current stock valuations suggest that the market is priced for perfection, indicating a potential overvaluation of equities [1] Valuation Analysis - The strategist points out that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are at historically high levels, which raises concerns about sustainability [1] - There is a notable divergence between stock prices and economic fundamentals, suggesting that investors may be overly optimistic [1] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment appears to be excessively bullish, with many expecting continued strong performance from equities despite potential economic headwinds [1] - The article highlights that this optimism may lead to increased volatility in the market if earnings do not meet elevated expectations [1]

Tariffs and Trade Policy Impact - The market adopts a "wait and see" attitude regarding tariff decisions, anticipating months of observation [2] - Elimination of tariffs is expected to have a significant positive impact on the economy [3] - Initial fears regarding the negative impact of tariffs have not fully materialized [4] - The administration has calibrated its tariff response, adjusting initial announcements [5] - Markets anticipate a resolution to trade disputes somewhere between a "taco trade" (Trump backs down) and a "Waco trade" (the world backs down) [8] Economic Soft War and National Security - Markets are not fully internalizing the threat of a "soft war" [9] - National security is increasingly intertwined with economic security [10] - The US economic program aims to strengthen the economy to withstand potential destabilization efforts [10][11] - An economic soft war is ongoing and expected to continue, presenting opportunities for markets if understood [11] Market Misinterpretations - People tend to overemphasize the Trump administration's business practices [7] - Virtue signaling can hinder understanding of future actions [7]

Jackson Hole Fed Meeting 2025: Live News, Powell Speech, Market Reaction https://t.co/aiaytOkbu7 ...

Market Analysis & Events - Bloomberg Television will provide special coverage of the Fed rate decision starting at 1 pm ET on Wednesday [1] - The Fed rate decision announcement is scheduled for 2 pm ET on Wednesday [1] - The coverage will include analysis of market reaction with top guests [1]

Market Reaction to Potential Legislation - Markets have been slowly creeping higher, reaching record highs, as they assess the potential impact of the legislation, with the thinking that it could stoke economic growth [3] - Wall Street analysts seem to feel that if the bill passes, it could unlock a growth profile for America, potentially leading to higher markets [4] - The market may be positively influenced by the bill's potential to make the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, including a reduction of the corporate tax rate to 21% [9] Concerns Regarding Debt and Deficit - The potential impact of $3.3 trillion of debt over 10 years is a factor in market calculations, particularly concerning the bond market and US sovereign debt [5] - A significant surge in US debt interest rates hasn't been observed, suggesting that some investors are currently looking beyond deficit concerns [7] - The market is watching for "bond vigilantes" who might punish US sovereign debt due to deficit and debt management, but this hasn't happened yet [8] US-Vietnam Trade Agreement - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, including a 20% tariff on Vietnam's imports and tariff-free access for the US to Vietnam's markets [10][15] - Vietnam has reportedly agreed to impose a 40% tariff on goods trans-shipped through Vietnam, potentially targeting goods from China [10][17] - The details of the agreement are still unclear, including potential nuances, exceptions for specific goods, and whether the agreement has been officially signed by both parties [18] - Analysts are awaiting details on non-tariff barriers and foreign exchange policies within the agreement [19][20] Geopolitical Implications - The trans-shipping clause in the US-Vietnam trade agreement could be seen as a jab at China, potentially impacting trade relations [21] - Beijing's reaction to the trans-shipping clause, which may throttle Chinese exports through Vietnam, is a key issue to watch [22]

Market Concerns - Wall Street is worried about the potential market impact of a leftward political shift, particularly concerning New York City real estate [1][2] - Stocks connected to New York City real estate, including those lending to apartments or REITs with exposure, are taking a hit [2] - There are concerns about the wealthy leaving New York City and the subsequent loss of tax base [3] Political Landscape - The New York mayoral primary is seen as a potential sign of a leftward move in policy, even if people are voting against their wealth interests [7] - Policymakers and investors are trying to understand the direction of the Democratic Party post-Trump [5][6] - The market reaction is driven by concerns about the direction of the Democratic Party, not just the New York mayoral race [7][8] Policy Implementation - Policy proposals, such as tax raises on the rich, would face challenges in implementation, requiring approval from moderate Governor Kathy Hochul [8] - Significant debt issuance would also be challenging [8]