I almost have to throw this in there because volatility skew is central to this article but options flow — especially in the last half of January — shows relatively strong inflows into SIRI stock. Some of the biggest trades are targeting the $21 and $21.50 calls expiring this Friday.No, the demand for calls is relatively lower than the demand for puts; therefore, the dominant motif remains protection against downside exposure. However, the upward curvature in call IV indicates upside optionality. Simply sta ...

Barrick Mining Corp (NYSE:B) easily ranks among the hottest securities in the gold market, having gained 18% since the start of January. Additionally, over the past 52 weeks, B stock skyrocketed to the tune of 220%. Still, with so much enthusiasm baked into the security, the immediate concern is that a corrective lull may transpire. Those who are aggressive can use options to scalp some profits on this possible downside.To clarify, the long-term narrative for Barrick stock appears robustly bullish. Fundamen ...

While it’s tempting to search for narrative insights that the market may have missed, chances are, whatever major drivers that can materially impact a publicly traded company’s valuation has probably already been priced in. As such, the more effective means of assessing the forward dynamics of a security may be to frame the market behaviors using the Markov property. Under Markov, the future state of a system depends solely on the current state. Colloquially, this simply means that probabilities are infl ...

Core Viewpoint - NET stock is anticipated to experience significant movement, with implied volatility indicating a potential price range between $152.89 and $215.45 based on current market conditions [1] Options Market Sentiment - The options flow shows a bullish sentiment, primarily driven by sold puts, although a preference for more debit-based directional trades was not observed last week [2] - The Barchart Technical Opinion indicator currently rates NET stock as a 56% Sell, reflecting broader market pessimism [3] Company Narrative and Market Context - Cloudflare's leadership highlighted a "technical glass ceiling" for enterprises that do not modernize their applications, emphasizing the risks of excessive spending on AI while innovation accelerates [4] - Concerns about the technology ecosystem have led to a decline in market value for Cloudflare, with a 54% increase in NET stock over the past year prompting some investors to exit [5] Statistical Analysis and Market Dynamics - The Black-Scholes model provides a first-order analysis of volatility, but the Markov property suggests that future market behavior is influenced by current states rather than being independent [6][7] - Under normal conditions, a long position in NET stock typically ranges between $170 and $230, but recent performance has shown only four up weeks in the last ten, indicating a downward trend [9] - The Markovian analysis indicates a broader range of outcomes between $160 and $240, with the highest probability density between $183 and $211 under current market conditions [10][11] Trading Strategy - A recommended trade is the 200/210 bull call spread expiring March 20, 2026, involving buying the $200 call and selling the $210 call for a net debit of $455, with a maximum profit potential of $545 [12][13] - This trade aligns with expected price movements and probability density, suggesting a high likelihood of reaching the $210 price point based on the 4-6-D sequence [14] - The high implied volatility for the March 20 options chain supports a directional wager rather than a more expensive straddle-type trade [15]

Group 1 - Cipher Mining (CIFR) stock has experienced a significant decline of 24% since its closing high of $24.71 on November 5, but has recently shown strong performance with a nearly 16% increase in the past five sessions, indicating a potential recovery in the cryptocurrency sector [1] - The options market indicates a shift in sentiment towards bullish net transactions for CIFR stock, suggesting potential for further upside [2][3] - Total market capitalization of all blockchain assets is around $3.1 trillion, with a recent resurgence of greed in the crypto market reflected in positive options flow data for CIFR stock [5] Group 2 - Implied volatility (IV) data suggests that CIFR stock may experience a significant price swing for the February 20 options chain, with a projected range between $14.55 and $23.05, indicating a symmetric high-low spread of 22.61% [6] - The Black-Scholes model, while a standard for pricing derivatives, may not provide optimal forward probabilities for CIFR stock, highlighting the need for alternative analytical frameworks [7]

分组1: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) - Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has a current spot price of $187.68, with an expected price range between $171.31 and $204.01 for options expiring on February 20, indicating a symmetrical high-low spread of 8.71% [5] - The stock has shown a downward trend, with only three up weeks in the last ten, suggesting a pessimistic outlook heading into the weekend [6] - Historical data indicates that under 3-7-D conditions, PANW stock tends to swing higher, with a probability density peak expected between $196 and $200 over the next five weeks, making the 195/200 bull call spread an attractive option with a potential max payout of over 156% [7] 分组2: NetEase (NTES) - NetEase (NTES) has a current spot price of $137.98, with an expected price range between $127.52 and $148.43 for options expiring on February 20, based on implied volatility [8] - Similar to PANW, NTES has experienced only three up weeks in the last ten, leading to a downward trend, which typically suggests bearish control [9] - However, historical patterns show that NTES tends to resolve upward under these conditions, with a probability density peak expected around $155, making the 145/155 bull call spread appealing with a potential max payout of 212.5% [10] 分组3: Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) - Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) has a current spot price of $215.32, with an expected price range between $198.07 and $232.57 for options expiring on February 20 [11] - The stock is currently showing a 3-7-D sequence, which typically has negative implications, but historical data suggests that it tends to resolve higher [12] - Probability density is expected to peak at $230, making the 220/230 bull call spread a sensible speculation with a maximum payout potential of 150% [13]

Core Viewpoint - Chewy Inc (NYSE:CHWY) is a significant player in the pet care market, reflecting the strong emotional bond Americans have with their pets, which is influencing the broader care ecosystem [1] Company Performance - CHWY stock has experienced a decline of 13% over the past year and a substantial drop of 70% over the last five years, primarily due to the normalization following the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Despite the stock's poor performance, there is speculation that the current low valuation may present an opportunity for traders [4] Market Sentiment - The market has already priced in the strong fundamental narrative surrounding pet ownership, indicating that current stock prices reflect existing expectations rather than potential changes [3] - The perception of CHWY as a discount stock could lead to a future increase in share price, as the core business proposition remains intact despite external economic pressures [4] Volatility and Pricing Models - The future performance of CHWY stock is influenced by its current state, aligning with the Markov property, which suggests that past performance impacts future outcomes [5][7] - Current market conditions have led to a downward trend in CHWY stock, with projections indicating a potential price range of $28 to $45 over the next 10 weeks, peaking around $38 [12] Trading Strategy - A contrarian trading strategy is suggested, focusing on a bull call spread option with a strike price of $37.50, which could yield a maximum payout of nearly 372% if the stock rises above this level by February 20, 2026 [13][15] - The probability of CHWY reaching the $37.50 mark is considered low under traditional models, but using the Markov property suggests a higher likelihood of this outcome [16][17]