Molina Healthcare (MOH) shares crashed more than 25% today after the managed care company issued disappointing guidance for its fiscal 2026. Molina said medical cost ratio was expected to remain elevated this year, as it guided for $5 a share of earnings for the full-year, alarmingly below the prior estimate of about $14. More News from Barchart Versus its year-to-date high, Molina Healthcare stock is now down nearly 35%. www.barchart.com Is It Worth Investing in Molina Healthcare Stock Today? Despi ...

Joining us now is Tom Lee, Funstrat, uh, head of research. I'm not going to say that u that that you didn't call this Tom because it was the beginning of the year you were talking about did you use the word uh speed bumps or volatility or I don't know what it was, but you also said that it a lot of it could be based on things coming out of Washington that the market was going to be held hostage of that to some extent. Is is this worse than you expected or pretty much uh what you were thinking.>> Um well and ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Asset Class Performance**: Gold was the best-performing asset class in 2025, with a return of 75%, significantly outperforming equities by 65 percentage points. Over the last five years, gold has consistently outperformed equities across multiple time frames, including 5, 10, 15, and 20 years [3][10][12]. Core Insights - **Equities vs. Gold**: An equal-weighted portfolio of gold and equities has compounded at 17% over the last five years, compared to 13% for equities and 21% for gold. The volatility of this portfolio is significantly lower than that of gold [4][10]. - **Future Outlook for Equities**: Indian equities are expected to reverse their relative underperformance, supported by policy changes that promote nominal growth. Current valuations suggest that equities are inexpensive compared to emerging markets and short rates [6][7]. - **Long-term Growth in India**: The long-term growth story for India is reinforced by various reforms, with a preference for domestic cyclicals over defensives and external-facing sectors. The recommendation is to overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials while underweighting Energy, Materials, Utilities, and Healthcare [7][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Physical vs. Financial Assets**: The strong performance of gold has led to physical assets outperforming financial assets, particularly during periods of negative real rates. The gap between GDP growth and property prices has widened, suggesting a potential mean reversion for property prices in the coming years [5][6]. - **Market Sentiment**: Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) exposure in Indian equities remains at historical lows, while domestic demand remains strong, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [6]. Data Highlights - **Performance Metrics**: - Gold: 75% return in 2025, 21.6% CAGR over 5 years - Equities (BSE Sensex): 9.1% return in 2025, 14.6% CAGR over 20 years - Property: 5.2% return in 2025, 9.0% CAGR over 20 years [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the performance of asset classes, the outlook for Indian equities, and the implications of market dynamics.

Core Insights - Baupost Group's latest 13F filing reveals a highly selective and concentrated portfolio, focusing on durable businesses with long-term cash generation potential [1][2] Investment Moves - **Restaurant Brands International (QSR)**: Increased by 4,203,300 shares to 8,252,862 shares, representing a $529.3 million position (11.05% of the portfolio). This is now Baupost's largest equity holding, indicating a belief in significant mispricing relative to its stable franchise model and cash flows [3][4] - **Elevance Health (ELV)**: Increased by 703,000 shares to 1,319,000 shares, totaling a $426.2 million position (8.90%). The increase suggests confidence in the company's predictable cash flows and resilience in a politically noisy sector [5][6] - **Union Pacific (UNP)**: Newly established position with 1,496,204 shares, valued at $353.7 million (7.38%). The railroad's high barriers to entry and pricing power align with Baupost's focus on downside protection [7][8] - **Alphabet (GOOG)**: Reduced by 775,850 shares to 1,858,138 shares, now a $452.6 million position (9.45%). The reduction reflects portfolio risk management rather than a loss of conviction [9] - **CRH plc (CRH)**: Trimmed by 442,000 shares to 3,383,395 shares, valued at $405.7 million (8.47%). The trim indicates a disciplined approach to valuation, despite the long-term thesis remaining intact [10] - **Full Exits**: Baupost exited several positions entirely, including Viasat, Liberty Broadband, ICON plc, and Amcor, signaling a shift in risk-reward balance [11][12] Strategic Focus - The quarter was characterized by conviction-driven capital redeployment into high-confidence ideas, particularly in sectors like restaurants, railroads, healthcare, and materials [13][14] - Trimming positions like GOOG and CRH reflects a focus on risk management and valuation discipline rather than a bearish outlook [15] - The top 10 positions account for over 75% of disclosed assets, emphasizing Baupost's belief in concentration as a strategy against ignorance [16] - The portfolio prioritizes downside protection, with upside driven by business durability rather than macroeconomic bets [17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the **Americas Energy** sector, focusing on stock performance dispersion in 2025, with notable leadership in **Refining** and **Specialty Contractors**, while **Oil Exploration & Production (E&P)** showed weakness, indicating a bifurcation in commodity themes [1][6]. Key Companies and Performance Refining Sector - **Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)** ranked highest in the XLE index with a **35% increase** in stock price, driven by low-cost operations and strong Gulf Coast exposure [2][6]. - Other outperformers in refining include **DINO (+31%)**, **MPC (+17%)**, and **PSX (+13%)** [6]. - The refining sector's performance is attributed to elevated crack spreads, resilient demand, and global capacity disruptions [6]. Specialty Contractors - **MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)** saw a **63% increase** in stock price, benefiting from increased U.S. power demand and utility companies raising capital spending plans [11]. - **Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR)** also performed well with a **36% increase** [11]. Gas E&P - **EQT Corporation** is highlighted for its low-cost structure and significant inventory depth, with a focus on generating capital efficiencies [19]. - **NFG** and **CRK** also showed strong performance, with increases of **33%** and **32%**, respectively [15]. Super Majors - **ExxonMobil (XOM)** outperformed **Chevron (CVX)**, with a **12% increase** compared to CVX's **4%**. XOM's performance was supported by strong production growth and a competitive advantage in the Permian Basin [23]. Large Cap Oil E&P - **Devon Energy (DVN)** was a relative outperformer with an **11% increase**, attributed to capital efficiencies and a focus on shareholder returns [28]. Oil Services - **TechnipFMC (FTI)** saw a **54% increase** in stock price, driven by a strong order book and adoption of new technologies [33]. Canadian Oils - **Imperial Oil (IMO)** outperformed with a **39% increase**, supported by operational execution and competitive capital returns [37]. Investor Sentiment and Pushback - Investor pushback has been noted for several companies, primarily focusing on valuation concerns and potential mean reversion after strong performance in 2025 [9][19][24]. - For **VLO**, concerns were raised about relative valuation despite strong operational metrics [9]. - **MTZ** faced pushback regarding potential permitting issues that could delay projects [13]. - **EQT** investors expressed caution regarding the capital expenditures required for growth projects [19]. - **CVX** investors highlighted risks associated with its elevated upstream exposure in a lower oil price environment [24]. Upcoming Events and Panels - Key panels at the upcoming Goldman Sachs conference will include discussions on refining margins, capital allocation strategies, and the outlook for various sectors within the energy industry [10][14][20][25][32][48]. Conclusion - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the energy sector, with strong performance in refining and specialty contractors, while oil E&P and super majors face challenges. Investor sentiment remains cautious, particularly regarding valuation and future growth prospects.

Core Insights - The financial world is currently focused on gold due to its record prices driven by geopolitical instability and central bank purchases, but platinum is emerging as a significant investment opportunity [3][4] - Platinum is trading around $2,100 per ounce and has seen substantial gains in the fourth quarter, yet it remains historically undervalued compared to gold, presenting a classic value proposition for investors [4][8] Valuation Dynamics - The Gold-to-Platinum Ratio, which indicates how many ounces of platinum are needed to purchase one ounce of gold, currently stands at approximately 1.4x, meaning gold is 1.4 times more expensive than platinum [6] - Historically, platinum traded at a premium to gold, often at a ratio of 1.2x, reflecting its geological rarity, as it is about 30 times rarer than gold [6] Investment Thesis - The investment thesis for platinum is based on the concept of mean reversion, suggesting that if the ratio normalizes back to 1:1, platinum prices would need to rise significantly, even if gold prices remain stable [7] - A persistent structural supply deficit and increasing demand from the green hydrogen economy are expected to exert upward pressure on platinum prices [8] Investment Vehicles - The abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF offers a liquid and transparent method for investors to gain exposure to physical platinum without logistical challenges [8]

Core Viewpoint - Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY) is expected to increase its dividend in late January or early February, with a potential target price of $50 per share based on its average dividend yield, indicating a possible upside of over 25% from its current trading price of $39.77 [1][3]. Dividend Information - OXY's stock price has decreased from $48.10 on September 29 to $39.77, but has shown some recovery from a low of $38.92 on December 16 [1]. - The company has consistently raised its dividend per share (DPS) after maintaining the same DPS for four quarters, which it has done as of November 5 [4]. - A proposed increase in DPS to $1.00 represents a 4.2% rise, which is lower than the previous year's 9% increase from 84 cents to 96 cents [4]. Valuation and Yield Analysis - The average dividend yield for OXY over the last 12 months is 2.33%, while the current yield at $39.77 is approximately 2.414% [5]. - Historical data shows that OXY's dividend yield has fluctuated between 1.16% and 2.38% over the past five years [5]. - Assuming a conservative estimate of a 2.0% dividend yield, if OXY raises its DPS to $1.00, the target price could reach $50.00, reflecting a mean reversion effect [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes a macro-style, passive, index-based investment approach focused on capital preservation and value orientation [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is characterized as all-weather, aiming to withstand various market conditions [1] - The approach includes a contrarian bent, suggesting a willingness to go against prevailing market trends [1] Group 2: Background and Experience - The individual has over 35 years of investment experience, managing and advising on family portfolios valued in the eight-figure range [1] - Educational background includes a B.S. in Industrial Engineering and an MBA in investments from the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign [1] - The individual has accumulated over 11,000 hours of investment management and research experience [1] Group 3: Community Engagement - The individual is passionate about improving financial literacy and investing skills among individuals [1] - Engagement includes writing for platforms like Seeking Alpha and Advisor Perspectives, as well as presenting at universities and community organizations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) shares is a significant concern for investors, particularly those interested in dividend income, with current share price around $37.19 and various valuation methods suggesting different worth [1][11]. Group 1: Investment Appeal of Bank Shares - The financial/banking industry is favored by Australian investors, with major banks operating in an oligopoly, making them attractive for dividend investors seeking franking credits [3]. - Other popular bank shares on the ASX include Bank of Queensland Limited (BOQ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) [2]. Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings Ratio (PER) is a common valuation tool that compares a company's share price to its earnings per share, with WBC's current PE ratio at 19.4x compared to the sector average of 18x [4][6]. - A Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is considered a more reliable method for valuing bank shares, relying on past or forecasted dividends and a risk rate [7][8]. Group 3: DDM Valuation Results - Using a DDM approach with last year's dividend of $1.66 and various growth and risk rates, the valuation of WBC shares ranges from $34.05 to $48.64 when considering gross dividends [11][12]. - The average valuation from different growth and risk assumptions yields a valuation of $35.10 [11]. Group 4: Considerations for Investment - Investors should assess WBC's growth strategy, focusing on lending versus non-interest income, and consider economic indicators such as unemployment and consumer sentiment [14].

Core Insights - Vanguard is recognized as a leading ETF provider due to its mutual ownership model, which allows fund shareholders to own the funds and Vanguard itself [2] - The company operates at cost, resulting in a significantly lower average expense ratio of 0.07%, compared to the industry average of over 0.40%, leading to substantial long-term savings for investors [3] - Vanguard manages over $8 trillion in assets, offering a wide range of passively managed index funds that provide comprehensive market exposure [4] Fund Summaries - **Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI)** targets high-yielding stocks in developed and emerging markets outside the U.S., with a focus on financials, consumer staples, and energy. It has an expense ratio of 0.17% and a 30-day SEC yield of approximately 4%, providing geographic diversification with over 1,500 holdings [5][7] - **Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)** offers exposure to major players in the AI sector, with top holdings including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, which together account for about 45% of assets. The fund charges an annual fee of 0.09% and has a 30-day SEC yield of 0.42%, covering over 300 companies in the tech space [8][10] - **Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR)** focuses on small U.S. companies with depressed valuations, charging a low expense ratio of 0.07% and offering a 30-day SEC yield of 2.03%. The fund holds over 800 stocks, providing diversification and targeting sectors like financials and industrials [11][13] Investment Strategy - The combination of these three funds provides a balanced approach to investing, offering international income, domestic growth, and contrarian value exposure, which can complement each other across different market cycles [14]