price of Westpac Banking Corp (Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: WBC ) is around $37 per share. But what are WBC shares really worth? How to get to an target valuation is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to Westpac Banking Corp, of course.Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) are also very ...

Core Insights - Vanguard is recognized as a leading ETF provider due to its mutual ownership model, which allows fund shareholders to own the funds and Vanguard itself [2] - The company operates at cost, resulting in a significantly lower average expense ratio of 0.07%, compared to the industry average of over 0.40%, leading to substantial long-term savings for investors [3] - Vanguard manages over $8 trillion in assets, offering a wide range of passively managed index funds that provide comprehensive market exposure [4] Fund Summaries - **Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI)** targets high-yielding stocks in developed and emerging markets outside the U.S., with a focus on financials, consumer staples, and energy. It has an expense ratio of 0.17% and a 30-day SEC yield of approximately 4%, providing geographic diversification with over 1,500 holdings [5][7] - **Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)** offers exposure to major players in the AI sector, with top holdings including Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, which together account for about 45% of assets. The fund charges an annual fee of 0.09% and has a 30-day SEC yield of 0.42%, covering over 300 companies in the tech space [8][10] - **Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR)** focuses on small U.S. companies with depressed valuations, charging a low expense ratio of 0.07% and offering a 30-day SEC yield of 2.03%. The fund holds over 800 stocks, providing diversification and targeting sectors like financials and industrials [11][13] Investment Strategy - The combination of these three funds provides a balanced approach to investing, offering international income, domestic growth, and contrarian value exposure, which can complement each other across different market cycles [14]

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) shares is a significant concern for investors, particularly those interested in dividend income, with current share price around $155 [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Appeal of Bank Shares - Australian investors favor bank shares, including CBA, ANZ Banking Group, and Macquarie Group, due to their stability and dividend income potential [2][3]. - The banking sector operates in an oligopoly, with limited success from foreign competitors like HSBC in penetrating the market [3]. Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common method for valuing shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share [4][5]. - CBA's current PE ratio is calculated at 27.5x, significantly higher than the banking sector average of 18x, leading to a sector-adjusted valuation of $102.65 [6]. Group 3: Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on past or forecasted dividends [7][8]. - Using last year's dividend of $4.65 and various risk rates, the DDM yields a valuation range for CBA shares between $98.33 and $100.66 [11][12]. - Adjusting for fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $6.80 results in a share price valuation of $143.80 [12]. Group 4: Growth and Risk Assumptions - Different growth rates (2% to 4%) and risk rates (6% to 11%) yield varying valuations, indicating the sensitivity of the share price to these assumptions [13].

Core Insights - PayPal (PYPL) stock has underperformed in recent years due to softer growth and increased competition, but its large user base, strong brand, and solid margins keep it relevant for investors [2][3] - The stock is currently trading at a lower than average valuation, with a significant decrease in its Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio, making it a potential value buy [3][5] - Despite a 32% decline in stock price this year, operational efficiency and strategic pricing are enhancing margins, with a reported 7% revenue increase in Q3 2025 [5][6] Valuation and Performance - PYPL is trading at a P/E ratio below the median of the S&P 500, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [5][10] - The stock's current P/S ratio is 37% less expensive compared to one year ago, suggesting a significant discount [5][10] - The company has maintained strong operating margins, averaging 17.9% over the past three years, despite facing challenges in transaction volume growth [10] Growth and Competition - The company has experienced modest growth, with management raising its full-year EPS forecast to $5.35-$5.39, although the stock remains down over 30% year-to-date [6] - Ongoing competition and concerns regarding transaction volume growth in core segments are contributing to its discounted valuation [6][8] - The favorable aspects for the company include operational efficiency improvements and strategic pricing, particularly in its Braintree segment [6] Historical Context - PayPal has faced significant historical drawdowns, including a 20% decline during the 2018 correction and a 31% drop during the Covid pandemic, highlighting the stock's volatility [8] - Despite strong fundamentals, the stock has experienced substantial declines in adverse market conditions, indicating that risk remains a factor even in favorable environments [8]

Core Insights - The current market presents a unique opportunity for international deep value investing, with significant discounts in international stocks compared to U.S. equities, particularly in Europe and Asia [2][4][5] Valuation Discrepancies - As of late 2025, international stocks are trading at their steepest discount to U.S. equities in over two decades, with the MSCI EAFE Index at approximately half the forward price-to-earnings multiple of the S&P 500 [2][4] - The deep-value segment of international markets is in the bottom decile of historical valuations, indicating extraordinary cheapness [4][5] Market Dynamics - A decade of U.S. market dominance has led to skepticism towards international markets, despite their current undervaluation [5][6] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies have strengthened the dollar, making international assets less attractive, but this creates opportunities as the dollar normalizes [6][7] Investment Strategy - The value factor, which involves buying companies at a discount to their intrinsic worth, has historically delivered superior returns, especially when combined with international diversification [8] - An asset-based approach is crucial for identifying deep value opportunities, focusing on companies trading below the value of their actual assets [9][10] Regional Opportunities - Europe is experiencing a structural change with increased infrastructure and defense spending, creating opportunities in construction materials and industrial sectors [13] - Japan's corporate governance reforms are leading to improved capital allocation and shareholder returns, unlocking previously ignored value [14] - Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and India, present extraordinary value despite current challenges [15] Specific Company Examples - LEG Immobilien SE operates in the German residential housing market, benefiting from a structural housing shortage and maintaining strong financial performance [22][23][24] - Aida Engineering Ltd is positioned to capitalize on the transition to electric vehicles and fuel cell technology, trading at a valuation that reflects stagnation rather than growth [29][34] - KNOT Offshore Partners LP operates specialized shuttle tankers with contracted cash flows, trading at a valuation that suggests significant undervaluation [39][45] Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that periods of deep value underperformance often precede substantial returns for value investors [20][50] - Current market conditions resemble past cycles where undervalued, fundamentally sound businesses eventually gained recognition [55][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of bank shares in Australia, particularly focusing on Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) and ANZ Banking Group, emphasizing the importance of dividend history and franking credits in investment decisions [1][2]. Valuation Techniques - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common method used to value bank shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share [3][4]. - Analysts often compare a company's PE ratio with its competitors to assess whether the share price is overvalued or undervalued [4]. - The principle of mean reversion is applied to calculate a sector-adjusted PE valuation by multiplying profits per share by the sector average PE ratio [4][5]. Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The DDM is highlighted as a suitable valuation method for banks due to their stable dividend payments, contrasting with growth-focused industries like technology [6][7]. - Key inputs for the DDM include the dividend per share, annual growth rate (assumed at 2%), and the required return rate (assumed between 6% and 11%) [7][9]. - The valuation formula for DDM is Share Price = Full-Year Dividend / (Risk Rate - Dividend Growth Rate), and it is recommended to calculate with various growth and risk rate assumptions [8]. ANZ Share Valuation - The current share price of ANZ is $35.46, with a calculated PE ratio of 16.5x, compared to the banking sector average of 20x, leading to a sector-adjusted PE valuation of $42.35 [5]. - Using the DDM approach, ANZ shares are valued at $35.10, which increases to $35.74 with an adjusted dividend payment of $1.69 [10]. - Various growth and risk rate scenarios yield a range of valuations, indicating the sensitivity of share price to these assumptions [10]. Investment Considerations - Analysts emphasize the importance of qualitative research, including understanding growth strategies, economic indicators, and consumer sentiment, before conducting quantitative analysis [11].

Core Insights - The current market environment reflects a structural shift, moving from a phase of liquidity-driven growth to one where fundamentals and discipline are paramount [3][5][13] - Companies that relied on cheap capital and speculative growth narratives are facing significant pressure as interest rates rise and credit conditions tighten [3][6][10] Market Dynamics - Unprofitable tech firms, over-leveraged consumer companies, and small-cap stocks dependent on low-cost debt are leading the market decline [1][3] - The previous rally was not based on solid fundamentals but rather on liquidity and narratives, particularly around AI, which has now shifted to a focus on cash flow and balance sheet strength [4][5] Investor Behavior - A divide is emerging between institutional investors, who are trimming risk and raising cash, and retail investors, who continue to cling to previous narratives [7][12] - Professional investors view cash as a strategic asset, while retail investors often react emotionally to market movements [7][8] Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to raise cash in overextended positions and focus on companies with strong fundamentals that can sustain themselves without relying on capital markets [9][10] - The market is expected to undergo a cleansing phase, where excess positioning is eliminated, leading to potential opportunities for patient investors [10][12] Future Outlook - The path ahead is likely to be volatile, with a potential for a short-term crash as leverage and optimism unwind together [10][13] - The next cycle will favor those who are prepared and disciplined, as the market resets and rewards quality over speculation [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) shares, highlighting the importance of understanding both the price-earnings (PE) ratio and the dividend discount model (DDM) for potential investors [1][7]. Valuation Methods - The PE ratio is a common tool for valuing shares, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with WBC's current PE ratio calculated at 20.5x against a sector average of 20x [4][6]. - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for WBC shares is derived by multiplying the earnings per share ($1.92) by the sector average PE ratio, resulting in a valuation of $38.08 [6]. Dividend Discount Model (DDM) - The DDM is presented as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on recent or forecasted dividends and assuming consistent or modest growth [8][10]. - Using last year's dividend payment of $1.66 and a blended risk rate between 6% and 11%, the DDM yields a valuation range for WBC shares from $34.05 to $48.64 when considering gross dividends [11][12]. Growth and Risk Rates - Different growth and risk rate assumptions yield varying valuations, with a 2% growth rate and a 6% risk rate resulting in a valuation of $40.25, while an 11% risk rate drops the valuation to $17.89 [13]. Market Context - The financial/banking industry is favored by Australian investors, particularly for dividend income, with major banks operating in an oligopoly, making them less susceptible to foreign competition [3].

Core Insights - The author is a mechanical engineer with a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and an M.B.A in Finance, indicating a strong technical and financial background [1] - The author employs evidence and factor-based investing strategies in their personal portfolio, suggesting a disciplined investment approach [1] - The author occasionally speculates on individual stocks believed to be undervalued, indicating a willingness to take calculated risks for potential gains [1] Analyst's Position - The analyst has a beneficial long position in the shares of BND, either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives, reflecting confidence in this investment [2] - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by external compensation, ensuring an independent viewpoint [2] - There is no business relationship with any company mentioned in the article, which may enhance the credibility of the analysis [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing an extended rally, but the likelihood of a corrective move is increasing due to the distance from moving averages [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market has advanced with little pause, indicating strong momentum, but this also raises vulnerability to mean reversion [1] - A decisive drop below the 10-Day moving average at $3,805 could signal weakening bullish momentum [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold's recent advance has stalled near a long-term Fibonacci resistance level at $3,897, derived from an ABCD pattern [2] - A daily close above $3,897 would confirm a breakout and open the next target range between $3,969 and $4,000 [2] Group 3: Resistance Levels - The rising trend channel guiding gold's advance intersects near the $3,969 to $4,000 zone, creating a significant technical barrier [3] - Traders will be monitoring for signs of exhaustion or potential reversal if gold extends into this resistance area [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Buyers currently maintain control, with a strong weekly close reinforcing the bullish narrative [4] - The challenge for bulls is to sustain momentum above the 10-Day line and push through the $3,897 threshold [4] - A successful breakout could lead to $4,000, while failure to hold current levels may trigger a deeper correction [4]