27 October 2025 | 6:00PM GMT Economics Research Global Markets Daily: Relative Value in FX – When to Chase and When to Fade (Jenkins) Relative Value in FX – When to Chase and When to Fade Non-Dollar crosses typically account for a relatively small portion of overall FX Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Stuart Jenkins ...

price of National Australia Bank Ltd (Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: NAB ) is around $43 per share. But what are NAB shares really worth? How to get to an price target is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to National Australia Bank Ltd, of course.Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and ANZ Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) are also very popula ...

Core Insights - Gold has experienced a significant rally, but a mean reversion is expected, with healthy corrections of 5-10% being typical before further upward movement [1] - A bearish candlestick pattern has been identified, indicating potential follow-through selling in the next 2-3 days unless gold can close above 50% of the bearish kicker [2] - Gold closed at $4,164, aligning with Fibonacci extension levels, suggesting continued strength despite bearish signals [3] Technical Analysis - A mean reversion zone is identified near $3,850 as a potential target for a pullback, while $4,277.50 is noted as the next Fibonacci extension level for a continued rally [5] - Current market behavior of gold is inconsistent with traditional technical indicators, suggesting a possible loss of confidence in the U.S. government and dollar [5] - The market strategist advises caution in trading gold, indicating a wait-and-see approach is prudent at this time [5]

price of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: CBA ) is around $167 per share. But what are CBA shares really worth? How to get to an valuation is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of course.ANZ Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) and Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are also very pop ...

price of National Australia Bank Ltd (Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: NAB ) is around $45 per share. But what are NAB shares really worth? How to get to an price target is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to National Australia Bank Ltd, of course.Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and ANZ Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) are also very popula ...

Core Insights - The Value Line Investment Survey provides long-term earnings forecasts and price targets for thousands of companies, reflecting sophisticated analysts' beliefs across market cycles [1][2] - A study by MIT highlights that Value Line's expected returns often diverge from the general market sentiment, indicating a contrarian approach that can identify investment opportunities [2][9] Market Timing and Returns - Value Line's expected 3–5 year returns tend to rise after market declines and fall after market surges, demonstrating a mean reversion understanding among its analysts [3][5] - Historical data from 1956 to 2024 shows that Value Line's expected return series forecasts future realized returns effectively, similar to the earnings-to-price ratio [4] Stock-Level Insights - Value Line's forecasts can be used as a screening tool for identifying long-term value opportunities, particularly in sectors or companies with temporarily depressed multiples [6][8] - Analysts at Value Line consistently anticipate mean reversion in valuation multiples, favoring undervalued or overlooked stocks [7] Disagreement and Market Opportunities - Discrepancies between Value Line's expectations and those of individual investors often lead to increased trading volume and volatility, indicating potential investment opportunities [9][10] - When the market is overly bullish while Value Line remains cautious, it signals potential froth; conversely, when the market is fearful but Value Line expects high returns, it indicates maximum opportunity [10] Practical Applications - Value Line's expected return series serves as a contrarian timing indicator, with high expected returns suggesting better times ahead and low expected returns serving as a cautionary signal [11] - The divergence in expectations between sophisticated analysts and the crowd can be leveraged by disciplined investors to capture returns [12] Current High-Return Candidates - Columbus McKinnon (NASDAQ: CMCO) is projected to have steady earnings growth despite recent market concerns, indicating potential for strong returns as cyclical headwinds fade [14] - B&G Foods (NYSE: BGS) is expected to stabilize costs and maintain its dividend policy, presenting a contrarian income opportunity with significant upside potential [15] - KinderCare Learning Companies (NYSE: KLC) is anticipated to benefit from long-term demand tailwinds in early childhood education, suggesting outsized returns as short-term uncertainties resolve [17]

This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with: What we're watching What we're reading Economic data releases and earnings The model of a bubble implies a crash. Just as metaphors of frothiness indicate unsustainable price increases. Sure, portfolios are growing, that's easy to see for those locked into the daily gyrations of the market or brave enough to take a look at their retirement funds. But what about all the concerned lo ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold has reached an all-time high, hitting record levels over 30 times this year, but a pullback may be anticipated based on historical trends [1][7] - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has seen a 13.8% increase over the past 24 sessions, with a relative strength index (RSI) above 80, indicating it is overbought [3][4] - Historical data shows that when GLD gained 13% or more with an RSI above 80, the following returns were negative: -1% in 1 month, -3% in 3 months, -3.5% in 6 months, and -3.2% in 12 months [6][7] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Global central banks have accumulated over 1,000 tonnes of gold each year for the last three years, significantly higher than the 400-500 tonnes average of the previous decade [8] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect their gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months [8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Real yields on U.S. Treasuries remain low relative to inflation expectations, which supports gold as an investment [9][11] - High stock market valuations often precede significant gold rallies, with historical data showing a 52% average gold rally following months in the highest valuation decile [12][13] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that equity prices are "fairly highly valued," which may impact market conditions [16][17] - Powell's comments led to a market sell-off, highlighting the importance of the Fed's interest rate decisions over mere commentary on stock valuations [17][18] Group 5: Political and Market Developments - The Trump administration is planning new measures to address high housing costs and has engaged in significant investments in various sectors, including a proposed equity stake in Lithium Americas Corp. [20][21] - The anticipated "Trump Shock" on September 30 could lead to a substantial influx of capital into the market, potentially igniting a lucrative bull market [24][23]

Core Insights - National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) shares are currently priced around $44, raising questions about their true value and potential for dividend income [1] - The financial/banking industry, including NAB, is favored by Australian investors, particularly for its dividend offerings and the oligopolistic market structure [2][3] Valuation Models - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool, comparing a company's share price to its earnings per share, with NAB's current PE ratio at 19.4x, slightly above the sector average of 19x [4][6] - A sector-adjusted PE valuation for NAB, based on its earnings per share and the average PE ratio, results in a valuation of $43.83 [6] - The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, relying on past and forecasted dividends [7][8] DDM Valuation Results - Using a DDM approach, NAB shares are valued at $35.74 with a blended growth and risk rate, and $36.16 with an adjusted dividend payment [11] - When considering fully franked dividends, the valuation increases to $51.66 based on a forecast gross dividend payment of $2.44 [12] Growth and Risk Considerations - Various growth and risk rate scenarios yield a range of valuations, indicating the sensitivity of share price to these assumptions [13] - Investors are encouraged to assess NAB's growth strategy, economic indicators, and management team before making investment decisions [14]

Group 1: Valuation of Bank of Queensland Limited (BOQ) - The current share price of BOQ is approximately $7.09, with a calculated PE ratio of 17.3x based on FY24 earnings per share of $0.41, compared to the banking sector average PE of 19x, leading to a sector-adjusted PE valuation of $7.97 [6][11] - A Dividend Discount Model (DDM) suggests a valuation of BOQ shares at $7.19, using a blended growth and risk rate, while an adjusted dividend payment of $0.35 per share increases the valuation to $7.40 [11][12] - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a forecast gross dividend payment of $0.50 results in a share price valuation of $10.57 [12] Group 2: Investment Appeal of Banking Sector - The financial/banking industry is favored by Australian investors, particularly for dividend income, with major banks operating in an oligopoly [2][3] - Despite attempts by large international banks like HSBC to penetrate the Australian market, their success has been limited, reinforcing the appeal of local bank shares [3] - Investors are particularly attracted to bank shares for their potential franking credits, which enhance the value of dividends received [3]