Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in making decisions for the upcoming December meeting due to a lack of key economic data caused by the government shutdown [1][3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDP now forecast for Q3 2023 is projected at 4.1%, indicating a strong economic performance [2][3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed is described as data-dependent but currently lacks sufficient data, relying instead on private data sources [3][4] - There are mixed signals regarding the labor market, with ADP data showing weakness and consumer sentiment at a three-year low, which could suggest a need for a rate cut [4][5] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased to about 50%, reflecting uncertainty in policy direction [5][6] Market Dynamics - Institutional investors are pulling back from the market, while retail investors continue to invest, influenced by tax considerations and year-end rebalancing [12] - Mega-cap companies are expected to lead the market, particularly in a tighter credit environment, as they have better access to borrowing [9][10][11]

What's being priced in. I mean, essentially, any time we get clarity, people say, oh, that's priced in. But the clarity is different every single day, whether it's the clarity of what kind of rate we're talking about with tariffs or the clarity of how big the US deficit is going to be, All of these worries that we had earlier in the year that are now being shrugged off as priced in, how do you determine between rational versus numb.I think it is entirely rational because when we look, for example, at what i ...