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Sandisk Falls 8%, Micron Drops 5%: Are Analysts Right to Stay Bullish on Memory Stocks?
247Wallst· 2026-03-26 15:19
Core Viewpoint - SanDisk and Micron Technology stocks have recently experienced significant declines, with SanDisk falling 8% to $623 and Micron dropping 5% to $364, despite both companies reporting strong earnings and maintaining bullish analyst ratings. The market's reaction raises questions about underlying risks that analysts may not be fully accounting for [2][5][6]. Company Performance - SanDisk's stock has dropped 18% over the past five trading days, while Micron's stock has also shed 18%. This decline occurs despite both companies posting strong earnings and having bullish analyst ratings, indicating potential market concerns that are not reflected in analyst optimism [6]. - SanDisk's free cash flow for Q2 fiscal 2026 was reported at $980 million, which has raised investor concerns regarding the timing of its recent $1 billion investment in Nanya Technology, a Taiwanese DRAM supplier [10][11]. - Micron's cloud memory business generated $5.3 billion in revenue with a gross margin of 66% last quarter, despite elevated capital expenditure guidance [3][15]. Analyst Sentiment - The analyst consensus remains bullish, with 38 analysts rating Micron as a buy or strong buy, and 14 analysts rating SanDisk similarly. The average price target for Micron is $525, while for SanDisk it is $770, indicating significant upside potential from current trading levels [8]. - Analysts argue that the structural demand for memory remains strong, citing ongoing supply shortages and customer prepayments for large memory deals as indicators of future demand [7][14]. Market Concerns - The introduction of Google's TurboQuant algorithm, which reduces memory requirements for AI workloads by at least 6x, has raised concerns about future demand for memory products, potentially overshadowing the positive earnings reports from both companies [4][6]. - Additional risks include SK Hynix's potential $14 billion U.S. listing, which could increase competitive pressure in the memory market, and the capital-intensive nature of SanDisk's recent investment [13][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the current market sentiment may be overly cautious, as the demand for AI infrastructure is expected to require substantial memory resources, and the prepayment behavior of customers suggests confidence in future demand [14]. - The resolution of these uncertainties will likely become clearer as data on AI infrastructure spending is released throughout 2026 [17].