Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Korean memory export market**, specifically **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)**, with a detailed analysis of **Samsung Electronics** and **SK hynix** [1][10]. Core Insights - **Samsung's HBM Revenue**: There is an **upside risk** to Samsung's 3Q25 HBM revenue, indicating potential growth beyond previous forecasts [2][10]. - **SK hynix's HBM Revenue**: Conversely, there is a **downside risk** to SK hynix's 3Q25 HBM revenue, suggesting weaker performance than expected [2][10]. - **Export Data Correlation**: The correlation between **Korean multichip memory exports** to Taiwan and Malaysia and the HBM revenues of Samsung and SK hynix is strong, with R² values of 0.97 for overall exports and 0.98 for SK hynix [2][10]. - **Geographical Insights**: Most HBM exports are directed to **Taiwan**, with some shipments to **Malaysia**, primarily for high-end Intel CPUs [3][10]. Shipment Details - **Samsung's Shipments**: Samsung likely shipped **US$0.5-1 billion** worth of HBM to Hong Kong/China in 4Q24 but ceased after the US export ban in January 2025 [4][10]. - **Export Breakdown**: Exports are primarily from **South Chungcheong Province** for Samsung and **North Chungcheong Province** and **Icheon** for SK hynix, aligning with their backend production facilities [10][18]. Revenue and Pricing Trends - **Revenue/Weight Data**: This data serves as a directional indicator for HBM pricing, showing a correlation with HBM prices, particularly during technology transitions [5][38]. - **Future Tracking**: The plan is to regularly track Korean export data, which provides early indications of HBM revenue for both companies, potentially 75 days before earnings releases [6][41]. Investment Ratings - **Samsung Electronics**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **KRW 95,000** [8][49]. - **SK hynix**: Also rated **Outperform** with a price target of **KRW 400,000** [9][51]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Both companies face risks from potential changes in the pricing environment, demand fluctuations, and competition from Chinese memory manufacturers [52][53]. Additional Insights - **Export Data Reliability**: The export data is deemed reliable, correlating well with company revenues and customs data, indicating a robust methodology for tracking HBM revenues [6][41]. - **Future HBM Developments**: The transition from HBM3 to HBM3E and the anticipated shift to HBM4 are expected to influence pricing and revenue trends significantly [5][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the HBM market in relation to Samsung and SK hynix.