Joining us now is Democratic Congressman from Colorado, Jason Crowe, a veteran who serves on the intelligence and armed services committees. Congressman, thanks for being here. Shortly after President Trump launched these strikes in Iran, you told me that you were concerned that the US was getting into quote another Middle East quagmire.Senators are getting briefed right now on what happened in those strikes. Have you gotten answers to your questions related to the goals of that strike and what went down. > ...

The White House saying President Trump will decide on a strike on Iran within the next two weeks while the conflict in the Middle East escalates between Israel and Iran without a resolution in sight. Mark Esper, former Secretary of Defense and former Secretary of the Army joins us now. It's great to have you, Secretary Esper.What do you think President Trump will do. Well, good morning, Sarah. Um, look, first of all, I thought he made a smart decision by pausing the clock, if you will, and giving himself mo ...

Geopolitical Risks and Market Impact - The market is becoming more accustomed to geopolitical risks, with the S&P 500 typically falling around 6% for about three weeks after such events before recovering [17] - Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a worst-case scenario, which could drive oil prices to $120 per barrel and negatively impact equity markets [18][19] - Increased geopolitical risk may require a larger escalation to significantly impact markets [18] Middle East Conflict and U S Involvement - President Trump left the G7 summit early, citing the need to be in Washington to address the Israel-Iran conflict, and called for the evacuation of Tehran [1][47][49] - There is speculation about greater U S involvement in the conflict, potentially deploying bigger bombs or taking a direct hand, which would contradict the Trump Doctrine of non-intervention [1][7] - Israel is determined to push on with its goals against Iran, demanding an end to Iranian nuclear and missile programs and regional influence [9][11] - The U S may have been blindsided by Israel's timing of attacks on Iran, leading to discomfort with the lack of U S control over developments [35][36] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are reacting to headlines about the Middle East conflict, with potential for continued volatility [74][75] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that Chinese crude oil demand will peak around 2027, and global crude oil demand will peak around 2030 [80][81] - A collision of two ships just outside the Strait of Hormuz is being monitored, though initial reports suggest it is not linked to the conflict [78] Central Bank Policies - Deutsche Bank projects one rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) in December [24][31] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held interest rates and implemented a new plan to slow the pace of bond market tapering, reducing the run rate of reductions from ¥400 billion to ¥200 billion Yen [89][90] - The BOJ increased the number of securities it is willing to lend out to the market, increasing repo operations to add more liquidity [91] Trade and Economic Outlook - Trade policy is considered extremely uncertain, hinging on whether Japan and the U S can reach a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline [93][94] - Trump expressed concern that imposing tougher sanctions on Russia would cost "billions and billions of dollars" [55] Aviation Industry - Airbus dominated the Paris Air Show with orders worth $17 billion from Saudi customers [56] - The aviation industry is experiencing strong demand and tight supply, with manufacturers facing production constraints [59][60][61] - Approximately half of the growth in the aviation sector is expected to come from Asia, particularly India, driven by the rising middle class [69] Technology and Defense - OpenAI has won a $200 million contract with the U S Defense Department to help the agency determine how to use artificial intelligence for administrative and security tasks [95][97]

[CC may contain inaccuracies] Certainly this conflict in the Middle East looks set to overshadow hopes for progress on a, you know, the separate story that we haven't even gotten to today, which is a trade conversation. David Gura, our Bloomberg correspondent, joins us, in fact, right now in Alberta for us to give us a preview of what to expect this week. David, we're all yours.What are you what are you tracking there. Well, certainly this conflict in the Middle East is casting a huge shadow over this agend ...

Now on to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Tonight, Iran is launching a new wave of retaliatory strikes after Israel's attack on the country's nuclear program. And Iran is now saying the United States was complicit in the attacks.It comes as NBC News learned the US helped shoot down Iranian missiles that were targeting Israel. The night cap is still here. Colonel Jack, you know, I'm going to you first.Israel is calling this a preemptive attack rather than preventative. explain to us the differenc ...

Market Reaction to Middle East Flare-Ups - The market initially reacts with a knee-jerk reaction to destabilizing events, but the impact should fade fairly quickly [6][7][9][14] - Historically, flare-ups in the Middle East have presented buying opportunities [2] - The market's price action suggests it is not overreacting, focusing on the broader theme that this will pass [14] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices surged, reaching the highest level since January, potentially driven by prior knowledge of events [1][3] - Some analysts suggest selling the oil price pop, indicating a belief that the surge is temporary [2][3] - Saudi Arabia may act to lower oil prices, and the Fed is unlikely to let oil prices derail their plans, viewing the impact as transitory [4][5] - A closure of the Strait of Hormuz could potentially lead to oil prices rising to $100 [8] - Higher oil prices could act as a tax on consumers, crowd out spending, and potentially cause headline CPI to reaccelerate [15][16] Investment Strategies - Oil and gas can serve as a portfolio diversifier, with some portfolios allocating around 5% to high-quality oil and gas companies [7] - Gold is also considered a good diversifier and a long-term investment [7] - For traders, it's important to capitalize on moves in crude oil and gold, but also be ready for changes in the news flow [24][26] - Some investors are monetizing call spreads in crude oil and gold ahead of the weekend [22] - Diversified portfolios may include exposure to gold miners, mid-stream energy, and commodities, comprising about 10% of the portfolio [26] Geopolitical Considerations - Negotiations between the US and China have significant implications for the global economy [12] - Escalation involving the US and China could prolong the impact of the conflict [13] - The lack of a positive reaction in treasuries, despite moves in the dollar and gold, raises questions about US exceptionalism [18]

For more on Israel's air strikes on Iran and the response in the Middle East, we want to bring in CNBC's Dan Murphy live from Dubai. Dan, what can you tell us. Becky, good morning to you.Well, the scale of this is already historic. I've been speaking with contacts inside Israel today who have expressed both shock and awe at what has unfolded this morning. Israel of course launching a sweeping military assault on Iran, striking more than 100 targets with over 200 fighter jets.Prime Minister Netanyahu also sa ...