Joining us now is Democratic Congressman from Colorado, Jason Crowe, a veteran who serves on the intelligence and armed services committees. Congressman, thanks for being here. Shortly after President Trump launched these strikes in Iran, you told me that you were concerned that the US was getting into quote another Middle East quagmire.Senators are getting briefed right now on what happened in those strikes. Have you gotten answers to your questions related to the goals of that strike and what went down. > ...

Geopolitical Risk & Strategic Considerations - A potential US strike on Iran is under consideration, with a decision expected within two weeks [1] - The effectiveness of a strike, Iran's potential response, and the safety of US personnel in the region are key considerations [3] - Regional partners' views are crucial, especially considering the presence of 40,000 US service members in the region [4] - Negotiations with Iran are necessary to ensure limitations on their nuclear program and establish inspection protocols [9] - Germany, the UK, and France aim to discuss uranium enrichment, ballistic missile production, and terrorism export with Iran [11] Energy Market Impact - Israeli action against Iranian energy sites like Kharg Island could significantly impact global energy production [13] - 20-25% of global energy supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is vulnerable to Iranian disruption [15] - Disruption of oil traffic through mining the Strait of Hormuz would impact global oil traffic [14] - Russia and China, key allies of Iran, heavily rely on Iranian oil shipments [16] Nuclear Proliferation Concerns - The location of approximately 900 pounds (408 kg) of enriched uranium at 60% purity is unknown, posing a proliferation risk [6] - This amount of enriched uranium is sufficient to produce up to 10 nuclear weapons [7]

Geopolitical Risks and Market Impact - The market is becoming more accustomed to geopolitical risks, with the S&P 500 typically falling around 6% for about three weeks after such events before recovering [17] - Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a worst-case scenario, which could drive oil prices to $120 per barrel and negatively impact equity markets [18][19] - Increased geopolitical risk may require a larger escalation to significantly impact markets [18] Middle East Conflict and U S Involvement - President Trump left the G7 summit early, citing the need to be in Washington to address the Israel-Iran conflict, and called for the evacuation of Tehran [1][47][49] - There is speculation about greater U S involvement in the conflict, potentially deploying bigger bombs or taking a direct hand, which would contradict the Trump Doctrine of non-intervention [1][7] - Israel is determined to push on with its goals against Iran, demanding an end to Iranian nuclear and missile programs and regional influence [9][11] - The U S may have been blindsided by Israel's timing of attacks on Iran, leading to discomfort with the lack of U S control over developments [35][36] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are reacting to headlines about the Middle East conflict, with potential for continued volatility [74][75] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that Chinese crude oil demand will peak around 2027, and global crude oil demand will peak around 2030 [80][81] - A collision of two ships just outside the Strait of Hormuz is being monitored, though initial reports suggest it is not linked to the conflict [78] Central Bank Policies - Deutsche Bank projects one rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FED) in December [24][31] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held interest rates and implemented a new plan to slow the pace of bond market tapering, reducing the run rate of reductions from ¥400 billion to ¥200 billion Yen [89][90] - The BOJ increased the number of securities it is willing to lend out to the market, increasing repo operations to add more liquidity [91] Trade and Economic Outlook - Trade policy is considered extremely uncertain, hinging on whether Japan and the U S can reach a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline [93][94] - Trump expressed concern that imposing tougher sanctions on Russia would cost "billions and billions of dollars" [55] Aviation Industry - Airbus dominated the Paris Air Show with orders worth $17 billion from Saudi customers [56] - The aviation industry is experiencing strong demand and tight supply, with manufacturers facing production constraints [59][60][61] - Approximately half of the growth in the aviation sector is expected to come from Asia, particularly India, driven by the rising middle class [69] Technology and Defense - OpenAI has won a $200 million contract with the U S Defense Department to help the agency determine how to use artificial intelligence for administrative and security tasks [95][97]

Geopolitics & Geoeconomics - The Middle East conflict is overshadowing trade conversations and the G7 summit agenda [1][2] - The G7 summit is expected to be defined by geoeconomics and geopolitics [5] - Trade is a major focus, despite not being on the official agenda [5] G7 Summit Dynamics - There is concern about avoiding a repeat of the 2018 G7 summit where Donald Trump rejected the communique [4] - Expectations for US trade agreements at the summit have been scaled back [6] - A unified statement from the G7 nations on all fronts is unlikely due to disagreements [10] - The summit's remote location is intended to foster frank conversations and improve camaraderie [11] Canadian Perspective - Canada hopes the summit will proceed smoothly under Prime Minister Mark Carney [11] - The G7 location in Banff and Calgary is geographically wide, with the leaders gathered at a small, hard-to-reach resort [8][9] - Canada invited nations beyond the G7, including Narendra Modi, to attend [10]

Now on to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Tonight, Iran is launching a new wave of retaliatory strikes after Israel's attack on the country's nuclear program. And Iran is now saying the United States was complicit in the attacks.It comes as NBC News learned the US helped shoot down Iranian missiles that were targeting Israel. The night cap is still here. Colonel Jack, you know, I'm going to you first.Israel is calling this a preemptive attack rather than preventative. explain to us the differenc ...

Market Reaction to Middle East Flare-Ups - The market initially reacts with a knee-jerk reaction to destabilizing events, but the impact should fade fairly quickly [6][7][9][14] - Historically, flare-ups in the Middle East have presented buying opportunities [2] - The market's price action suggests it is not overreacting, focusing on the broader theme that this will pass [14] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices surged, reaching the highest level since January, potentially driven by prior knowledge of events [1][3] - Some analysts suggest selling the oil price pop, indicating a belief that the surge is temporary [2][3] - Saudi Arabia may act to lower oil prices, and the Fed is unlikely to let oil prices derail their plans, viewing the impact as transitory [4][5] - A closure of the Strait of Hormuz could potentially lead to oil prices rising to $100 [8] - Higher oil prices could act as a tax on consumers, crowd out spending, and potentially cause headline CPI to reaccelerate [15][16] Investment Strategies - Oil and gas can serve as a portfolio diversifier, with some portfolios allocating around 5% to high-quality oil and gas companies [7] - Gold is also considered a good diversifier and a long-term investment [7] - For traders, it's important to capitalize on moves in crude oil and gold, but also be ready for changes in the news flow [24][26] - Some investors are monetizing call spreads in crude oil and gold ahead of the weekend [22] - Diversified portfolios may include exposure to gold miners, mid-stream energy, and commodities, comprising about 10% of the portfolio [26] Geopolitical Considerations - Negotiations between the US and China have significant implications for the global economy [12] - Escalation involving the US and China could prolong the impact of the conflict [13] - The lack of a positive reaction in treasuries, despite moves in the dollar and gold, raises questions about US exceptionalism [18]

Geopolitical Implications - Israel launched a sweeping military assault on Iran, striking over 100 targets with over 200 fighter jets [1] - The strike reportedly killed two of Iran's most powerful military figures, including the head of the IRGC, and six Iranian nuclear scientists [2] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar condemned the strikes, expressing concern about regional security [3] - The US may want Iran back at the negotiation table to get a nuclear deal done, potentially impacting talks in Oman [4] Energy Market Impact - Brent crude oil jumped above $75 per barrel due to regional instability [8] - Traders are pricing in the risk of potential disruptions to oil flows across the Gulf [9] - Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily, making it a critical choke point [10] - Regional instability could drive volatility in crude prices [8] Regional Dynamics - Arab states may benefit from the setback to Iran's nuclear ambitions [6] - Israel has been perceived as doing the "dirty work" for Arab states for many years [6] - Gulf states are prioritizing peace and prosperity, focusing on economic development and societal advancement [7]