Summary of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tongcheng Travel Holdings (0780.HK) - **Industry**: Online Travel Services in China Key Points and Arguments 1. Financial Performance and Guidance - **4Q25 GMV Growth**: Accelerated to high-single digit % year-over-year, compared to mid-single digit % in 3Q25, primarily driven by the hospitality segment [1] - **Hotel ADR Increase**: Low-to-mid single digit % increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR) on the platform, attributed to a slowdown in hotel supply [1] - **Ticketing Business Performance**: Tracking low-to-mid single digit % year-over-year growth, aligning with broader industry trends due to high online penetration rates of 80-90% [1] - **4Q25 Revenue Guidance**: Expected revenue growth of 10-15%, with 15-20% from Online Travel Agency (OTA) services and a stable EBIT margin of 28.4% [1] 2. Strategic Focus for 2026 - **Leisure Travel Demand**: Management is optimistic about resilient demand supported by favorable policies, such as more school holidays [2] - **User Base Monetization**: Targeting existing 252 million user base with promotions and subsidies; users are willing to spend more on upgraded services [2] - **Outbound Travel Business**: Currently represents ~5% of group revenue but has reached breakeven profitability; plans to prioritize air ticket bookings before expanding into hospitality [2] - **Mobile App Development**: Mobile apps account for ~10% of Monthly Active Users (MAU), up from 5% in 2023, reducing reliance on Weixin platform from ~80% to 75% [2] 3. Competitive Landscape - **Competition Analysis**: Competition remains benign with smaller operators focusing on niche markets; it will take time for them to build supply chains and customer service teams [3] 4. Margin Improvement Potential - **EBIT Margin Improvement**: Potential for further improvement driven by increased GMV contribution from mobile app users, improved profitability from hotel management and outbound travel, and operational efficiency through AI adoption [7] 5. Market Sentiment and Valuation - **Share Price Performance**: The share price has been range-bound due to concerns over domestic competition and profit margin comparisons [8] - **Valuation Metrics**: Current trading at 13x FY26E P/E, representing a 24% discount to 17x for TCOM, in line with historical averages [8] 6. Price Target and Risks - **Price Target**: 12-month target price set at Rmb28.8, based on an 85% weighting to fundamental value and a 15% weighting to M&A value [9] - **Downside Risks**: Increased competition, potential decline in transportation take rates, reliance on Tencent/WeChat, and weaker macroeconomic conditions [10] 7. Investment Thesis - **Investment Recommendation**: Rated as a Buy due to leverage on resilient domestic travel, upside from hospitality segment, and ongoing business initiatives that could drive earnings growth [11] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: HK$52.6 billion / $6.7 billion [13] - **Revenue Forecasts**: Expected revenue growth from Rmb17,340.7 million in FY24 to Rmb24,372.1 million in FY27 [13] - **Free Cash Flow Yield**: Projected to increase from 6.8% in FY25 to 10.5% in FY27 [13]

Core Insights - Sapient Capital sold 8,029 shares of AppLovin for an estimated $3.70 million, reducing its position to 13.95% of its 13F AUM, while retaining 1,272,462 shares, making AppLovin the second-largest holding after Eli Lilly [2][3] Company Overview - AppLovin Corporation has a market capitalization of $202.71 billion, with a trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $5.31 billion and a net income of $2.38 billion [4] - As of October 17, 2025, AppLovin shares were priced at $599.31 [4] Business Model - AppLovin operates in the mobile software sector, providing app developers with technology platforms to enhance monetization and user acquisition [5] - The company offers a suite of software solutions, including marketing automation, analytics, and in-app bidding platforms, generating revenue primarily through software-based advertising [6] Recent Performance - AppLovin has been a top-performing stock in 2025, with Sapient Capital's sale viewed as profit-taking rather than a significant divestment, as the fund still holds nearly 1.3 million shares valued at around $900 million [7][10] - The company's revenue has doubled from $2.8 billion in 2023 to $5.3 billion, and it is now part of the S&P 500, ranking as the 82nd-largest American company by market cap [10] Market Concerns - Recent reports of an SEC investigation into AppLovin's data collection practices have negatively impacted its stock, causing a nearly 20% drop [9] - Short sellers have targeted AppLovin earlier in the year based on similar allegations, indicating ongoing market concerns [11]