Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of trade policies and tariffs on the U.S. economy and global markets, particularly in relation to President Trump's administration and its trade strategies [1][5][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Policy Changes**: - An increase in the "reciprocal" tariff rate from 10% to 15% is anticipated, while the 25% pharma tariff is expected to be delayed until after the 2026 midterm elections. This suggests an average effective tariff rate increase of about 14 percentage points in 2025, with a further rise to nearly 20% in 2026 [1][5]. 2. **Inflation Impact**: - The tariffs have begun to affect inflation, with estimates indicating that 60% of the tariffs implemented in February have passed through, raising the core PCE price index by 0.2%. A further 1.2% price level increase is expected, leading to a year-on-year core PCE inflation rate above 3% in the second half of the year [5][10]. 3. **Consumer Spending Trends**: - Real personal consumption has stagnated for six months, a rare occurrence outside of recession periods. This stagnation, coupled with a sharp decline in housing activity, has led to a downward revision of the H1 real GDP growth estimate to 1.1%, which is about a percentage point below potential [10][12]. 4. **Labor Market Dynamics**: - Private payroll growth has slowed significantly, with only 74,000 jobs added in June. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a risk of hitting "stall speed," where job creation is insufficient to maintain low unemployment rates [14][16]. 5. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: - The slowdown in economic activity has strengthened the case for earlier monetary policy easing. A forecast of three consecutive 25 basis point cuts is expected starting in September, bringing the funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025 [16][18]. 6. **Risks to Economic Forecasts**: - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could destabilize long-term inflation expectations. A potential threat to Fed independence could arise from political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration [20][23]. 7. **Global Economic Implications**: - A 30% U.S. tariff on imports from Europe could reduce Euro area GDP by 0.5% by the end of 2026. However, there is cautious optimism regarding Euro area growth due to fiscal expansion in Germany and strength in Spain [21][24]. 8. **China's Economic Situation**: - China's GDP growth has exceeded expectations, but there are concerns about a potential "second China shock" affecting global manufacturing employment. Calls for higher trade barriers against China are likely to increase, although the effectiveness of such measures is debated [26][28]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes that the current economic conditions are influenced by a combination of tariff impacts, consumer behavior, and labor market trends, which collectively shape the outlook for both the U.S. and global economies [10][14][26]. - The potential for a cyclical upturn in Germany and continued strength in Spain is noted, indicating regional variations in economic performance despite overarching global challenges [24][25].

Core Insights - The recovery from market lows continued in Q1 2025, with 25 contracts signed under the law of obligation, up from 16 in Q1 2024, driven by projects like Iseära phase II and Regati [1][3][31] - The average weekly sales ratio remained stable at around 1.9%, exceeding 2.5% in March, compared to a long-term average of 1.5–2.0% [2] - The company reported a net loss of EUR 705 thousand in Q1 2025, attributed to low sales volume and lower-than-average profitability, with revenue of EUR 1,931 thousand [4][11] Financial Performance - Cash and cash equivalents increased by EUR 4,011 thousand to EUR 9,916 thousand, while total assets grew by EUR 10,512 thousand to EUR 88,810 thousand [5] - Total borrowings rose by EUR 10,427 thousand to EUR 57,684 thousand, with EUR 6,808 thousand in bank loans disbursed for project financing [6][7] - The company redeemed EUR 2,000 thousand in bonds and reduced current borrowings by EUR 4,367 thousand to EUR 2,039 thousand [7] Project Developments - No new construction completions occurred in Q1 2025, with only 5 homes and 1 commercial space handed over from previous developments [4] - The company has 104 contracts for homes scheduled for completion in 2025, with a total revenue value of EUR 40.7 million [3][31] - A public offering of green bonds in March 2025 was oversubscribed by 2.1 times, raising EUR 6,200 thousand [16] Market Environment - The 6-month Euribor rate fell to 2.39% by the end of Q1 2025, continuing a downward trend [20] - Inflation in Estonia was 4.4% in Q1 2025, higher than the euro area average, with forecasts suggesting inflation could reach 6.6% for the year [22] - The number of apartment transactions in Tallinn decreased by 15.8% from the previous quarter but showed an 18.3% increase year-on-year [24] Future Outlook - The company expects continued recovery in demand for residential real estate, with potential revenue of up to EUR 75 million from 194 residential and commercial units in 2025 [27][28] - Most planned revenue and profit for 2025 will be generated in the second half of the year, with ongoing efforts in pre-sales and new project developments [29][32] - The company is actively seeking new sites and negotiating acquisitions to expand its development portfolio [33]