2026年首个完整交易周，贵金属市场以"暴力拉升"开启新篇章。1月12日早盘，现货黄金价格突破4600 美元/盎司整数关口，单周累计涨幅达3.96%；现货白银更以超5%的涨幅冲破83美元/盎司，创下历史新 高。这场由地缘政治危机与货币政策转向共同点燃的行情，正引发市场对贵金属"疯涨年"的无限遐想。 波动加剧：白银"疯牛"能否持续？ 地缘风暴：避险需求点燃第一把火 相较于黄金的稳健上行，白银市场呈现"过山车"式波动。1月10日，白银期货单日振幅达15%，两天内 累计涨跌幅超20%。这种极端波动源于其独特的市场结构：全球白银投资需求占比仅28%，远低于黄金 的65%，而光伏用银量预计在2026年突破8500吨，工业需求占比持续攀升。 "白银就像贵金属市场的'高贝塔资产'。"中信建投财富管理部负责人表示，当前金银比已从2025年初的 82倍降至59倍，接近历史均值水平。但白银市场存在两大隐忧：一是彭博大宗商品指数年度再平衡调降 贵金属权重，触发指数基金被动减仓；二是芝商所连续三次上调白银期货保证金，单次幅度达28.6%， 抑制投机交易。数据显示，1月以来，COMEX白银非商业净多头持仓减少12%，显示部分资金开始获 ...

Gold and silver futures have exploded to record highs in 2025, capping one of the most dramatic rallies in the history of the precious metals market as investors piled into hard assets amid shifting monetary policy, geopolitical turmoil and tightening supply.Gold futures surged past $4,470 an ounce on Monday, up roughly 70% for the year — the metal’s strongest annual performance since 1979, according to market data cited by Bloomberg News.Silver outpaced even gold, soaring more than 130% year-to-date to aro ...

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is experiencing challenges due to affordability pressures stemming from elevated mortgage rates and construction costs, which have negatively impacted buyer sentiment and slowed activity across various regions [1][2] - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, TOL reported a 4% year-over-year decline in net signed contracts and a 19% decrease in backlog, indicating a softer outlook ahead [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis points rate cut may alleviate some affordability constraints, potentially encouraging more buyers to enter the market [3] Company Performance - TOL's adjusted home sales gross margin decreased to 27.5%, down 130 basis points from the previous year, due to higher incentives and a slower sales pace [2] - Approximately 35% of TOL's communities can now deliver homes in eight months or less, improving flexibility to meet demand and potentially converting interest into closings more efficiently [4][10] - TOL's shares have increased by 24.2% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry and the broader S&P 500 [8] Industry Context - Other homebuilders, such as Lennar Corporation (LEN) and D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), are also facing similar sales volume challenges due to high mortgage rates and affordability pressures [5] - Lennar has utilized price incentives and mortgage buydowns to maintain sales volumes, although this has negatively impacted margins [6] - D.R. Horton reported that 81% of buyers in Q3 relied on incentive programs, which has pressured profitability but the company continues to benefit from its lot acquisition strategy [7] Valuation and Estimates - TOL's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 10.24, lower than the industry average of 12.33 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TOL's 2025 earnings per share has decreased to $13.82, reflecting a 7.9% decline from the previous year's profit level [13]