Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has underperformed in 2023 compared to gold and the Nasdaq 100, but there are expectations for a significant recovery in 2026 due to monetary debasement and returning liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin Performance and Outlook - Bitcoin is lagging behind the Nasdaq 100 Index by approximately 50% year-to-date, positioning it for potential strong performance in 2026 [2]. - The current weakness in Bitcoin is attributed to a softer risk appetite and tight liquidity, but the long-term thesis for Bitcoin remains strong [2]. - Historical trends suggest that as currency devaluation increases and liquidity returns, Bitcoin typically responds positively [2][3]. Group 2: Broader Market Trends - The investment strategy includes a focus on monetary debasement, technological advancements, and the increasing importance of hard assets like gold and Bitcoin [3]. - There is an expectation for gold prices to rise to $5,000, reflecting a more than 10% increase from current levels, with gold having risen over 70% this year [4]. - A bull market in natural resources is emerging, driven by demands from artificial intelligence, energy transitions, robotics, and re-industrialization, which are seen as foundational for the new economy [5].

Bitcoin Outlook - Financial repression and monetary debasement are certainties [1] - Bitcoin's continued ascent is a certainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors should consider allocating up to 15% of their portfolios to gold as it serves as an effective diversifier and performs well when traditional assets decline [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold futures are currently trading at $4,005.80 per ounce, having increased over 50% this year due to a flight to safety amid rising fiscal deficits and global tensions [2]. - The current market environment is likened to the early 1970s, characterized by inflation, heavy government spending, and high debt, which undermined confidence in paper assets and fiat currencies [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Ray Dalio's recommendation of a 15% allocation to gold contrasts with the traditional 60-40 stock-bond portfolio strategy typically advised by financial advisors, who usually suggest a low single-digit percentage for alternative assets like gold [3]. - Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has suggested an even higher allocation of up to 25% in gold, citing ongoing inflationary pressures and a weaker dollar as key factors [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Hedge - Gold is highlighted as a unique asset that does not require reliance on others for value, making it a strong hedge against monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty [4].

Group 1: Government Shutdown and Market Reactions - The U.S. government shutdown has entered another week, with potential layoffs for federal employees if negotiations do not progress [2][3] - Despite the shutdown, U.S. equities are expected to continue their strong performance, driven by optimism regarding artificial intelligence and historical resilience during past shutdowns [9][10] - The ongoing shutdown is contributing to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is positively impacting gold prices, now nearing $4,000 per ounce and up almost 50% year-to-date [6][7] Group 2: Political Changes in France and Japan - In Japan, the election of Sai Takayi as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democrats is expected to lead to increased fiscal stimulus, resulting in a surge in Japanese stocks and a weakening yen [4][5] - Conversely, France's political instability is highlighted by the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastian Lo, leading to declines in French stocks and rising bond yields, raising concerns about economic confidence [5][6][13] - The differing political climates in Japan and France are impacting market sentiment, with Japan seen as more favorable for investment due to anticipated fiscal measures [15][16] Group 3: Corporate Developments and Market Trends - Fifth Third Bankcorp is acquiring Coma in an all-stock deal valued at $10.9 billion, creating one of the largest banks in the U.S. by assets [19] - AMD's shares are rising following a significant partnership with OpenAI, which includes a 10% stake acquisition and a commitment to purchase six gigawatts of AMD's Mi450 chips [21][22] - Tesla's shares are also set to rise ahead of a product launch event, with expectations for a lower-cost version of the Model Y to boost sales momentum [23][24]

Group 1 - Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) collectively manage an estimated $105 billion in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, positioning them among the largest holders of digital wealth outside exchanges and custodians [1] - DATs are emerging as a cornerstone in the digital asset markets, indicating a shift from volatility-driven trading to sustainable, capital-intensive strategies [2] - The structural bid from treasuries is slowing as market net asset values (mNAVs) compress, with ETF flows becoming more significant in the current market cycle [3] Group 2 - Analysts compare DATs to traditional financial conglomerates like Berkshire Hathaway, highlighting their evolution from rainy-day funds to influential investment engines [4] - DATs are actively investing and shaping ecosystems, similar to how sovereign wealth funds operate in traditional markets, with examples like the Solana Foundation funding various initiatives [5] - Ethereum-aligned treasuries are underwriting research and experimenting with tokenized incentives, further embedding themselves as economic engines [6][7] Group 3 - DATs can recycle blockchain revenues into growth, akin to how Berkshire Hathaway reinvests profits, utilizing transaction fees, staking yields, and ecosystem revenues for strategic redeployment [8]