Key TakeawaysECB rate hike expectations for April have surged to over 60% as officials reportedly view current economic projections as "outdated" due to Middle East instability.President Trump intensified his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him "incompetent" and "stubborn" while demanding immediate interest rate cuts.Geopolitical risks spiked following reports of airstrikes in Northern Mosul and Iranian claims of damaging a U.S. F-35 jet, prompting the EU to review oil supply security.U.S. 30-ye ...

Stock Market Overview - US stocks opened lower due to higher-than-expected inflation data and rising oil prices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling about 169 points, or 0.36% [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also declined by 0.31% and roughly 0.26%, respectively [1] Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% in February, significantly above the expected 0.3% increase, with annual producer prices climbing 3.4%, exceeding forecasts of 2.9% [3] - This inflation surprise has raised concerns that interest rates may remain elevated for a longer period [2][3] Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions - Oil prices have continued to rise, with West Texas Intermediate crude increasing over 2% to around $97.68 per barrel and Brent crude advancing more than 4% to $108.3 per barrel [5] - The increase in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, including attacks on Iranian energy facilities and disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz [5][8] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have shifted, with traders now anticipating a cut of at least 25 basis points only by April 2027, compared to earlier expectations for a move as soon as December 2026 [4] - Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged [9] Corporate Movements - Micron Technology rose 0.29% ahead of its earnings release, while SanDisk gained 1.6% [10] - Drone software company Swarmer saw a significant increase of 40% following its Nasdaq debut [10] - Travel stocks such as Delta, American Airlines, and Carnival experienced declines, while Lululemon gained 2% despite issuing weaker-than-expected guidance [10] - Macy's stock rose 5.6% after indicating that tariff-related pressures could ease later in the year [10]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts are moderating expectations regarding monetary easing amid ongoing economic turbulence [1] Group 1 - The duration of the current economic turbulence remains uncertain [1] - Some analysts are adjusting their forecasts in light of the prevailing conditions [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices advanced, trimming a weekly loss as traders increased bets on monetary easing following a weak US jobs report, with unexpected job cuts in February and a rising unemployment rate indicating labor market fragility [1][2] - Gold rose as much as 1.8% to $5,174.59 per ounce, reducing its weekly decline to 2.3%, as lower interest rates typically benefit non-yielding gold [2] - The precious metal faced pressure from rising oil prices due to Middle East conflicts, which fueled inflation concerns, while a stronger dollar and higher borrowing costs negatively impacted gold [2][4] Group 2 - Despite recent trading volatility, gold has gained nearly 20% so far this year, supported by geopolitical upheaval and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence, which have driven demand for safer assets [4] - Spot gold rose 1.5% to $5,157.42 per ounce, while silver climbed 2.1% to $83.93, indicating a positive trend for precious metals amid market uncertainties [4]

On portfolio metrics, management said 84% of investments were in cash-flowing properties at quarter-end, with multi-residential real estate accounting for roughly 62% of the portfolio. First mortgages represented 95% of the portfolio, and weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) was 67.4% in Q4, slightly below Q3.McTait also noted gross originations of CAD 425 million in Q4 and said the momentum carried into 2026, producing a “healthy new business pipeline.” He attributed stronger transaction conditions to mone ...

Brazil’s economic activity cooled less than expected at the end of 2025, complicating the outlook for monetary easing in Latin America’s largest economy https://t.co/BnlWwuecc2 ...

Market Performance - European stocks closed positively, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 up by 1.19%, the UK's FTSE 100 climbing 1.23%, Germany's DAX gaining 1.12%, and France's CAC 40 ending 0.81% higher [1][3]. - Defense stocks rose due to an agreement between India and France to strengthen defense and aerospace ties [2]. - Mining and banking sectors also saw significant gains, with notable performances from companies like Antofagasta, which soared nearly 11% [4]. Company Updates - BAE Systems reported a better-than-expected 12% rise in full-year operating profit, leading to a 4% increase in its shares [4]. - In Germany, Rheinmetall climbed more than 5%, and Heidelberg Materials gained about 4.3% [5]. - Bayer's shares fell over 7% due to a proposed $10.5 billion settlement related to litigation over its Roundup weedkiller [6]. Sector Performance - In the UK market, mining companies such as Fresnillo, Anglo American Plc, and Glencore gained between 4.25% and 4.8% [4]. - In France, companies like Thales, ArcelorMittal, and STMicroelectronics saw gains of 2%-5% [7]. - Notable declines were observed in food retailer Carrefour, which slid more than 5% after reporting a decline in operating profit [8]. Economic Indicators - France's inflation eased to the lowest in five years, with the consumer price index rising only 0.3% year-on-year in January [9]. - The EU harmonized inflation softened to 0.4% from 0.7% in December, marking the weakest rate since December 2020 [10]. - In the UK, the consumer price index posted an annual increase of 3% in January, the lowest since March 2025 [12].

In the past, the People’s Bank of China feared that monetary easing would add to downward pressure on the yuan. Now that would probably be welcome https://t.co/qqahaoj7wS ...

The IMF said Thailand needs a “carefully calibrated” mix of policies to support a slowing economy, urging fiscal support and monetary easing. https://t.co/55TM2kHusS ...

Czech policymakers are set to hold interest rates at their first meeting of 2026 as an expected slowdown in headline inflation may open room for more monetary easing this year https://t.co/TcYtGxIY82 ...