Cryptocurrency ETFs recorded $454 million in outflows last week as investor sentiment shifted negatively, according to a report by CoinShares. The withdrawals nearly erased $1.5 billion in inflows accumulated during the first two days of the year. This reversal coincided with diminishing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March. A four-day streak of selling totaled $1.3 billion according to data released by CoinShares. The shift in capital flows followed the release of macroe ...

Core Viewpoint - Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Bitmine, has made highly bullish predictions for Bitcoin and Ethereum, forecasting Bitcoin could reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by 2026, with Ethereum potentially experiencing similar gains [1][3]. Group 1: Bitcoin Predictions - Lee suggests that Bitcoin's next major rally may break the traditional four-year halving cycle, which has historically been followed by significant price declines [3]. - He acknowledges that under the classic cycle framework, Bitcoin "should be down this year," but believes recent developments have significantly changed the outlook [3]. - Key drivers for Bitcoin's potential rise include ongoing institutional adoption, the development of blockchain-based products by Wall Street, and increasing support from the U.S. government [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Lee notes that gold rallies often precede Bitcoin rallies, suggesting that the recent performance of gold is beneficial for Bitcoin [5]. - He highlights that certain macroeconomic indicators, such as the copper-to-gold price ratio, have historically aligned with Bitcoin price increases, even if the reasons are not fully understood [5]. Group 3: Ethereum Outlook - Lee expresses a similarly bullish stance on Ethereum, indicating that its performance relative to Bitcoin is crucial for its potential upside [6][8]. - He emphasizes that the price ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin is a key metric to monitor for future price movements [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tom Lee predicts the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by the end of 2026, with a potential 15-20% correction in the latter half of the year [2][3] Market Performance - The market in 2026 is expected to experience volatility characterized by "joy, depression, and rally," influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate policies [3] - Factors contributing to market optimism include the anniversary of tariffs, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and a possible rebound in the ISM index [3] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as energy, financials, and small caps are identified as potential growth areas, with small caps having reached an all-time high in 2025 [4] - Lower interest rates are expected to benefit small caps, with monetary easing and earnings growth acting as tailwinds [4] Broader Market Outlook - Predictions align with a broader market outlook for 2026, emphasizing the importance of stocks with strong earnings growth [5] - Small caps are anticipated to outperform mid and large caps, supported by improving earnings momentum and favorable economic conditions [6] Recent Market Performance - Over the past year, Invesco QQQ Trust and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF have seen increases of 16.89% and 14.74%, respectively [7]

Market Analysis - The market has dropped below a short-term 50% level, with resistance identified between $4350.27 and $4381.44, while traders are targeting the intermediate 50% level at $4211.60 and the 50-day moving average at $4174.88, indicating potential buying interest in this area [1] - The 50-day moving average is a crucial trend indicator that has been guiding the market higher since mid-August, and a significant break below it could change the market sentiment from extremely bullish to just bullish [2] Historical Context - Historical patterns suggest a potential decline to $4041.76, as the market previously fell from $4381.44 to $3886.46 in six trading sessions, indicating that weak long positions may be liquidated before any upward movement [3] Gold Market Insights - Gold has experienced a remarkable 65% surge this year, marking its best performance in over 40 years, although a reset is anticipated before the uptrend resumes [4] - The fundamentals driving gold's performance, such as U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical issues, are expected to re-emerge in 2026, providing investors with new opportunities [5] Future Considerations - The awareness of a new bull market in gold may hinder the ability to replicate last year's gains due to higher margins and potential public selling, which could stall the rally [6]

Market Performance - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a surge after four days of decline, driven by a rally in global markets and lower-than-expected US consumer price inflation data for November, which reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6] - The 30-share BSE Sensex increased by 447.55 points, or 0.53 percent, closing at 84,929.36, with an intraday high of 85,067.50, up 585.69 points, or 0.69 percent [3] - The 50-share NSE Nifty rose by 150.85 points, or 0.58 percent, to settle at 25,966.40 [4] Sector Performance - Among the 30 Sensex firms, notable gainers included Bharat Electronics, Power Grid, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, and Bajaj Finserv [4] - Conversely, HCL Tech, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, and Sun Pharma were identified as laggards [4] Foreign and Domestic Investment - Fresh foreign fund inflows contributed to the upward movement in equity markets, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) purchasing equities worth Rs 595.78 crore on Thursday [7] - Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also engaged in buying, acquiring stocks worth Rs 2,700.36 crore in the previous trade [8] Global Market Influence - Global equity markets, including those in Europe and the US, were trading higher, with the US markets closing positively on Thursday, reflecting steady investor sentiment supported by favorable global cues [6] - A recovery in the Indian rupee against the US dollar further bolstered confidence, leading to broad-based buying during the session [7] Commodity Prices - Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, saw a slight decline of 0.40 percent, settling at $59.58 per barrel [8]

Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks rose for a third consecutive day, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,690.53, up 0.8%, marking its longest winning streak in three weeks [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.1%, while the CSI 300 Index on the mainland climbed 0.3% and the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.4% [2] Sector Performance - Chinese pharmaceutical firms showed strong gains, with Innovent Biologics rising 2.1% to HK$83.25 and Wuxi AppTec increasing by 1.5% to HK$103.80, driven by optimism about China's potential as a global hub for innovative drugs [3] - Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group saw a 3.1% increase to HK$12.70 after raising prices on some products [3] - Major tech companies also experienced gains, with Alibaba Group Holding up 0.8% to HK$145.30 and Tencent Holdings adding 1.5% to HK$614 [3] Economic Context - Cooling US inflation is expected to alleviate concerns about a potential global bubble in artificial intelligence, which has been exacerbated by high valuations and significant investments in data centers [5][6] - Core US inflation was reported at 2.6% in November, the slowest pace since early 2021, with overall consumer prices rising 2.7% year on year, below the consensus estimate of 3.1% [6] Weekly Summary - Despite the recent gains, the Hang Seng Index finished the week down 1.1% due to significant losses in the first two trading days, primarily driven by concerns over the AI bubble [2][7] - Notable decliners for the week included Xiaomi, Baidu, and Alibaba Group Holding, each sliding more than 5%, while Li Ning and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group emerged as top performers with gains of about 7% [7]

Gold traded near a record and platinum extended a breakneck rally that saw it surge close to $2,000 an ounce after softer-than-expected US inflation data. The core US consumer prices index unexpectedly rose at the slowest pace since early 2021, supporting bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further. The Fed delivered its third straight rate cut last week — a tailwind for precious metals, which don’t pay interest — but has been ambiguous about the pace of monetary easing into 2026. Trader ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are nearing record levels due to investor anticipation of US inflation data and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela [1][3][5] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is trading near $4,350 an ounce, recovering from a slight decline after a five-day winning streak [2] - The precious metal has surged over 60% this year, positioning it for its best annual performance since 1979, driven by increased central bank purchases and a retreat from government debt [5] - Predictions suggest gold could reach $5,000 an ounce next year, supported by inflationary pressures and a global growth slowdown [4] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Tensions in Venezuela, including a US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers and military buildup, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe haven [3][5] - The geopolitical climate is enhancing gold's attractiveness amid investor concerns over economic stability [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming inflation data for indications of the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts, which could impact precious metals [2][6] - Current market sentiment assigns a less-than-25% chance of a rate reduction in January, indicating cautious optimism among traders [6] Group 4: Future Projections - Analysts predict that gold will average $4,500 an ounce by 2026, with expectations of a more sustainable bullish trajectory following this year's rapid price increase [7]

Hungary kept its key interest rate unchanged as expected before the publication of the central bank’s new inflation projections, which investors will scrutinize for any sign of a pivot toward monetary easing https://t.co/WqnjloIIL0 ...

Bond traders are betting on a shallower path of Fed interest-rate cuts in the year ahead, part of a global move to wager that major central banks will slow or halt their monetary easing https://t.co/cQ9IRalmmd ...