Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caden in Chicago alongside Sambatis at the New York Stock Exchange. Some final thoughts on today's session.For me, the US trade deficit came out totaling $91.5% billion for 2025. That was only slightly narrower than the 93.5% billion the year before. Despite our ongoing tariffs, exports rose 6.2% to 3.43% trillion, but imports climbed to 4.33% trillion, pushing the goods deficit.That's the piece that's most impacted by tariff policy to a record $1.24% trillion. De ...

Redfin Reports Homebuyer Down Payments Shrink for First Time in 5 MonthsFeb 16, 2026 8:00 AM Eastern Standard Time# Redfin Reports Homebuyer Down Payments Shrink for First Time in 5 MonthsShare---The typical homebuyer put down 15.2% of the purchase price, compared with 16.7% a year earlierSEATTLE-- ([BUSINESS WIRE])--The typical U.S. homebuyer's down payment fell 1.5% year over year to $64,000 in December, the first decline in five months. That's according to a new [report] from [Redfin], the real estate br ...

Core Insights - Current mortgage rates are reported to be at their lowest in years, with Zillow indicating a 30-year fixed rate of 5.85% [1][17] - Mortgage rates vary significantly by source, with Zillow's rates typically lower than those from Freddie Mac due to different data collection methods [17] Mortgage Rates Overview - The current national average mortgage rates according to Zillow are as follows: - 30-year fixed: 5.85% - 20-year fixed: 5.64% - 15-year fixed: 5.36% - 5/1 ARM: 5.81% - 7/1 ARM: 5.71% - 30-year VA: 5.36% - 15-year VA: 5.15% - 5/1 VA: 4.99% [4] Refinance Rates - Today's mortgage refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the following national averages: - 30-year fixed: 5.97% - 20-year fixed: 5.67% - 15-year fixed: 5.39% - 5/1 ARM: 6.10% - 7/1 ARM: 5.89% - 30-year VA: 5.68% - 15-year VA: 5.21% - 5/1 VA: 4.95% [5] Market Conditions - The current housing market is considered favorable for buyers compared to previous years, with home prices stabilizing and mortgage rates dropping since last year [15] - Predictions indicate that the 30-year mortgage rate is expected to remain around 6% through the end of the year, with minimal decreases anticipated [18] Mortgage Types and Their Characteristics - A 30-year fixed mortgage offers lower and predictable monthly payments but comes with higher interest costs over the loan's life [7][9] - A 15-year fixed mortgage has higher monthly payments but lower interest rates, allowing borrowers to pay off their mortgage sooner and save on interest [10][11] - Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) offer lower initial rates but come with the risk of rate increases after the introductory period [12][13]

Core Insights - The housing market is experiencing a downturn, with existing home sales in January dropping 8.4% from December, reflecting ongoing affordability challenges and low inventory levels [1][2] - Economists anticipate a potential improvement in sales due to lower mortgage rates, but affordability issues are expected to persist [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Existing home sales in January were at an annualized rate below 4 million, maintaining activity near decades-low levels [1] - The decline in sales is attributed to poor weather conditions and limited inventory, which has kept prices elevated [1][2] Group 2: Affordability Trends - Mortgage rates averaged 6.1% in January, down from nearly 7% a year ago, contributing to improved affordability conditions [1] - The median home price in January was $396,800, reflecting a modest increase of 0.9% from the previous year [1] Group 3: Inventory and Market Dynamics - Inventory levels increased by 3.4% over the past year, but remain significantly below pre-pandemic averages, limiting home price appreciation [1] - The cold weather in early January impacted home sales, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast regions, with expectations that warmer weather may boost sales [1][2] Group 4: Future Outlook - Economists predict a thaw in market conditions this spring, but significant improvements in affordability are seen as distant [1] - Low inventory levels are likely to continue affecting the market, with a cap on how much sales activity can improve in the near term [1]

Mortgage Rates Overview - The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate is currently just above 6%, specifically at 6.09%, down from 6.11% last week and significantly lower than the 6.87% average from a year ago [1] - The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage average has also decreased to 5.44% from 5.5% last week, compared to 6.09% a year ago [2] Influencing Factors - Mortgage rates are affected by various factors including the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and bond market investors' expectations regarding the economy and inflation [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a benchmark for pricing home loans, has decreased to 4.13% from 4.21% a week prior [3]

Mortgage rates fell this week, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.16%, down from 6.23% last week, according to Bankrate’s latest lender survey. Current mortgage rates Loan type Current 4 weeks ago One year ago 52-week average 52-week low 30-year 6.16% 6.18% 7.03% 6.57% 6.16% 15-year 5.50% 5.49% 6.24% 5.79% 5.49% 30-year jumbo 6.33% 6.37% 7.05% 6.64% 6.31% The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.35 discount and origi ...

Mortgage Rates Overview - Mortgage rates have increased significantly from a low of 2.65% during the pandemic to nearly 8% in 2023, with a stabilization around 6.10% as of early February 2026, showing a slight improvement from 6.9% in February 2025 [1] - The historical context indicates that rates near 6% are moderate compared to the sub-3% rates seen during the pandemic, which are unlikely to return soon [2] Future Rate Predictions - Morgan Stanley projects a slight decline in mortgage rates through 2026, targeting the 5.75% range, while many economists expect rates to remain around 6% [3] Financial Implications for Buyers - For a $400,000 home purchase with a 20% down payment, the remaining loan balance of $320,000 at a 6.10% rate results in a monthly payment of $1,939.18 [4] - If rates drop to 5.75%, the monthly payment would decrease to $1,867.43, saving approximately $72 per month [5] - Buyers should consider if the potential savings of $72 per month over 30 years outweigh the risks of missing out on desired properties or facing higher future prices, making current rates appealing for those planning to stay long-term [6] Refinancing Considerations - The industry standard suggests refinancing if savings of 1% to 2% can be achieved, meaning refinancing is advisable if the current mortgage rate is 7.10% or higher, given the current rate of 6.10% [7] - An example shows that refinancing a $300,000 mortgage from a 7.25% rate to 6.10% would reduce the monthly payment from approximately $2,314 to $1,818 [8]

Core Insights - Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) and home equity loan (HEL) rates are currently slightly above their 52-week lows, making them attractive options for homeowners looking to access equity without refinancing their primary mortgage [1][4] Group 1: Current Rates and Trends - The average HELOC rate has decreased to 7.23%, with a 52-week low of 7.19% recorded in mid-January [2] - The national average for home equity loans stands at 7.44%, with a 52-week low of 7.38% noted in early December [2] - Rates are determined based on a minimum credit score of 780 and a combined loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) of less than 70% [2] Group 2: Product Comparison - A HELOC allows homeowners to draw cash as needed, while a home equity loan provides a lump sum [3] - Home equity interest rates differ from primary mortgage rates, typically based on an index rate plus a margin, with the current prime rate at 6.75% [5] - Lenders have flexibility in pricing second mortgage products, making it essential for borrowers to shop around for the best rates [6] Group 3: Lender Considerations - Some lenders offer below-market introductory rates for HELOCs, which may only last for a limited time before converting to a variable rate [6][9] - Home equity loans generally do not have introductory rates, providing a fixed interest rate throughout the repayment period [7][12] - It is important to consider minimum draw amounts for HELOCs, as some lenders may require a significant initial draw [11] Group 4: Usage and Recommendations - Homeowners with low primary mortgage rates and significant equity may find it beneficial to consider a HELOC or HEL for home improvements or other expenses [14] - The national average rates for HELOCs and HELs can serve as a benchmark when comparing offers from different lenders [13]

Group 1: Economic and Market Conditions - The partial U.S. Government shutdown is negatively impacting economic activity and lending, with companies like Newrez reporting on its effects [1] - Mortgage rates are primarily driven by market conditions rather than political factors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring the bond market [9] - The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates tighter standards for commercial lending, with mixed demand trends expected to persist through 2026 [17] Group 2: Company Innovations and Offerings - ICE Servicing Digital simplifies the home equity loan application process, allowing servicers to enhance customer relationships and recapture business [2] - Land Gorilla's integration with Encompass® automates the transition from loan origination to draw management, improving efficiency in construction loan administration [3] - Better Wholesale offers competitive HELOC products with low rates and no origination fees, targeting price-sensitive clients and self-employed borrowers [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Trends - Uplist Recapture™ has identified over $8.5 billion in refinance opportunities in the past 30 days, helping loan officers capitalize on dormant databases [4] - Figure is expanding HELOC eligibility to include LLC-held properties, catering to a growing segment of real estate investors who accounted for 34% of home purchases in Q3 2025 [5] - Smaller lenders are leveraging Total Expert Customer Intelligence to enhance borrower engagement and drive additional funded loans [7] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Responses - PennyMac Financial Services Inc. reported profits significantly below expectations, leading to a 33% drop in its stock price and affecting the outlook for other lenders [14][15] - The mortgage industry is facing increased competition, which is tightening margins and complicating recapture efforts for lenders [15] - The U.S. MBS market started 2026 strongly, with a 52 basis point excess return in January, supported by stable conditions and low volatility [19]

Mortgage Rates Overview - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 5.91%, while the 15-year fixed rate is at 5.44% [1][16][17] - Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) such as the 5/1 ARM and 7/1 ARM have rates of 5.93% and 6.04% respectively [6][16] Mortgage Payment Insights - For a $300,000 mortgage at a 30-year term with a 5.91% rate, the monthly payment would be approximately $1,781, resulting in $341,279 paid in interest over the loan's life [7] - Conversely, a 15-year mortgage at a 5.44% rate would lead to a monthly payment of $2,442, with total interest paid amounting to $139,508 [9] Adjustable-Rate Mortgages - ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages but can increase after the initial fixed period [10][11] - Recent trends show that ARM rates can sometimes be similar to or even higher than fixed rates, necessitating careful comparison among lenders [12] Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates - Lenders offer lower rates to borrowers with higher down payments, excellent credit scores, and low debt-to-income ratios [13] - Options for reducing interest rates include paying for discount points at closing or utilizing temporary buydowns [14][15] Future Rate Predictions - Forecasts indicate that the 30-year mortgage rate is expected to remain around 6.1% through 2026, with similar predictions from Fannie Mae for the end of the year [18]