Core Insights - Freddie Mac reported a decrease in mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaging 6.26% as of September 18, 2025, down from 6.35% the previous week [1][4] - The share of mortgage applications for refinancing reached nearly 60%, the highest level since January 2022, indicating a strong response from homeowners to the declining rates [1] Mortgage Rate Trends - The 30-year FRM averaged 6.26% on September 18, 2025, compared to 6.09% a year ago, showing a year-over-year increase [4] - The 15-year FRM averaged 5.41%, down from 5.50% the previous week and up from 5.15% a year ago [4] Freddie Mac's Mission - Freddie Mac aims to enhance liquidity, stability, and affordability in the housing market, supporting families in buying, renting, or maintaining their homes since 1970 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a series of interest rate cuts starting in 2025, with projections indicating a decline that may continue into the third quarter of 2026 [2][3][4] Interest Rate Cuts and Market Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has reduced the fed funds target rate by 0.25% to a range of 4% - 4.25% [3] - Financial markets anticipate a steady decline in the fed funds rate, potentially bottoming out just below 3% by the end of 2026 [4][10] Impact on Households - Lower interest rates will affect American households in two significant ways: reduced income from investments and lower payments on loans such as mortgages [5][6] - The average yield on money market funds is currently 4.08%, which is favorable compared to the inflation rate of 3.1% [7][8] Money Market Funds Outlook - As the Fed reduces interest rates, yields on money market funds are expected to decline, potentially falling below 3% by late 2026 [9][10] - The current inflow into money market funds, which exceeds $7.3 trillion, may reverse as yields decrease [8] Yield Curve Dynamics - An inverted yield curve has led to higher yields on short-term bonds compared to longer-term bonds, driving inflows into money market funds [11] - A return to a positively sloped yield curve is anticipated, making longer-term bonds more attractive as front-end rates decline [12][14] Mortgage Market Implications - Lower interest rates are expected to facilitate cheaper borrowing, particularly for mortgage refinancing, with average 30-year mortgage rates dipping below 6.5% [16][17] - Increased mortgage refinancing activity is anticipated as homeowners take advantage of lower rates, which are more closely correlated with the 10-year Treasury yield [17][18] Overall Economic Impact - The net effect of lower interest rates is viewed positively, as they provide cheaper borrowing costs while also reducing income from short-term investments [20][21] - The favorable environment for equities and other risk assets is also a significant consideration for investors [22]

Group 1 - Current homeowners are benefiting from the anticipated Fed rate cut, leading to a 58% increase in refinance applications in the last week and a 70% increase compared to the same week last year [1][8] - There is a notable rise in demand for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), with the share of refinancing activity tied to ARMs reaching 12.9%, the highest since 2008 [2] - The surge in refinancing demand is driven by a significant drop in home borrowing costs, with the 10-year US Treasury yield decreasing to around 4.02% from a peak of 4.8% in early 2025, influencing mortgage rates [3] Group 2 - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell by 15 basis points to approximately 6.35%, marking the largest weekly drop in a year, while the 5/1-year adjustable mortgage rate decreased to 5.7% [4] - Overall mortgage activity is increasing, with total applications up 9.2% in the week ending September 5, indicating strong borrower demand since 2022 [8] - The rising activity suggests a positive outlook for the US housing market, which has been stagnant due to high borrowing costs, with expectations of mortgage rates dropping to around 6.25% by year-end as the Fed resumes its easing cycle [9]

MBA的这项调查自1990年起每周开展一次，调查对象包括抵押贷款银行、商业银行及储蓄机构。其数 据覆盖了美国超过75%的零售住房抵押贷款申请，具有广泛的代表性。 抵押贷款利率已连续三周下降，这为长期难以重拾增长动力的房地产市场注入了新活力。若利率能持续 走低，不仅可能重新激发购房者的需求，还将鼓励更多美国人挂牌出售房屋。 投资者预计，美联储将从本周三晚些时候开始，在未来几个月内多次下调基准利率。 MBA监测的抵押贷款总活动指数(涵盖住房购买与再融资业务)已升至三年多以来的最高点。 美国抵押贷款利率上周跌至近一年来最低水平，这一变化推动再融资活动大幅增加。抵押贷款银行家协 会(Mortgage Bankers Association，简称MBA)周三发布的数据显示，在截至9月12日的一周内，30年期抵 押贷款合同利率下降10个基点，至6.39%。该协会监测的再融资活动指数攀升至2022年初以来的最高 值，住房购买申请指数也同步走高。 ...