Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (NYSE:IVR) ranks among the most undervalued REIT stocks to buy right now. On January 16, Compass Point lifted its price target for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (NYSE:IVR) to $9.50 from $9, retaining a Buy rating on the mortgage REIT. The firm identified wider-than-average mortgage spreads as a possible driver of book value per share increase. Compass Point forecasts these margins to narrow as fixed-income fluctuation falls and the yield curve grows steeper. Pixabay/Public D ...

AGNC Investment (NasdaqGS:AGNC) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsBernie Bell - EVP and CFOBose George - Managing DirectorEric Hagen - Managing DirectorKatie Wisecarver - Head of Investor RelationsPeter Federico - President, CEO and CIOTrevor Cranston - Director and Mortgage Finance Equity ResearchConference Call ParticipantsCrispin Love - Director and Senior Research AnalystDouglas Harter - Equity Research AnalystHarsh Hemnani - Senior AnalystJason Stewart - AnalystRick ...

AGNC Investment (NasdaqGS:AGNC) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsBernie Bell - EVP and CFOBose George - Managing DirectorEric Hagen - Managing DirectorKatie Wisecarver - Head of Investor RelationsPeter Federico - President, CEO and CIOTrevor Cranston - Director and Mortgage Finance Equity ResearchConference Call ParticipantsCrispin Love - Director and Senior Research AnalystDouglas Harter - Equity Research AnalystHarsh Hemnani - Senior Analyst and Head of CRE Debt Resea ...

AGNC Investment (NasdaqGS:AGNC) Q4 2025 Earnings call January 27, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker7Good morning, and welcome to the AGNC Investment Corp.'s Fourth Quarter 2025 shareholder call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. To withdraw your questi ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds aims to lower mortgage rates below 6% and enhance housing affordability [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rate Influence - The directive is intended to impact mortgage spreads, which are the differences between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates, historically averaging 1.8 percentage points higher than Treasury yields [2] - By increasing the purchase of mortgage bonds, the initiative seeks to influence the demand for mortgage-backed securities, which is one of the factors determining spread levels [3] Group 2: Expert Opinions and Housing Supply - Housing experts agree that additional mortgage-bond purchases could lower mortgage rates, but the effectiveness of this plan is uncertain without addressing the significant housing supply shortage in the U.S., estimated between 1.5 million and 5.5 million homes [4][6] - The current housing supply shortage is pegged at 2.8 million homes, which could take a decade to resolve, indicating that demand-side measures alone may not suffice to improve affordability [6] Group 3: Current Market Context - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold a relatively small portion of mortgage-backed securities, with a combined total of $247 billion, while larger players include banks, foreign investors, and the Federal Reserve in the $9 trillion market [7] - The recent actions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have already contributed to a decrease in mortgage rates, which fell from the high 6% range to just under 6.2% over the past year, with spreads also compressing from 2.65 percentage points in April to just under 2 percentage points currently [8][9]

Core Insights - The mortgage REITs have identified an opportunity in agency-backed mortgages due to historically high spreads, leading to significant capital deployment in this sector [1][2][4] - Dynex Capital (DX) exemplifies the trend among agency mREITs, having raised over $3 billion to expand its investment portfolio in agency MBS [2][15] - The tightening of mortgage spreads has resulted in substantial mark-to-market gains for mREITs, with 30-year mortgage yields dropping from approximately 7% to 6.5% [7][11][31] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Agency-backed mortgages are considered nearly as safe as U.S. Treasuries, with the added risk of prepayment and duration risk [5] - The recent increase in mortgage rates over the past five years has led to many mortgages trading at a discount to par, making prepayment potentially profitable for mREITs [6] - The tightening of spreads has been beneficial, with a notable drop in 30-year mortgage yields contributing to gains in mREIT portfolios [7][11] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Many mREITs have followed a similar strategy to Dynex by issuing equity to capitalize on high mortgage spreads, which has diluted common shareholders but benefited preferred shareholders [17][31] - AGNC Investment has also expanded its agency RMBS portfolio through equity issuance, leading to increased asset value amid spread tightening [15][31] - Preferred shares of mREITs are viewed as more attractive investments compared to common shares, with many trading at discounts to par and offering high dividend yields [33] Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated 3Q earnings reports are expected to reflect significant gains in book value for mREITs due to the recent tightening of spreads [31][32] - The market may not yet fully recognize the gains experienced by these companies, which could lead to a shift in sentiment and a reduction in the risk premium for both common and preferred shares [32] - There is potential for investment in common shares, but preferred shares are generally considered the better option due to their higher yields and discounted prices [33]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - AGNC reported a comprehensive loss of $0.13 per common share for Q2 2025, with an economic return on tangible common equity of negative 1% [14] - The tangible net book value per share declined by $0.44, while dividends declared per common share were $0.36 [14] - As of the end of July, the tangible net book value per common share increased by about 1% after accounting for monthly dividend accrual [14] - Quarter-end leverage increased slightly to 7.6x tangible equity from 7.5x at the end of Q1, with average leverage rising to 7.5x from 7.3x in the prior quarter [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The asset portfolio totaled $82 billion at quarter-end, up approximately $3.5 billion from the prior quarter, with a focus on higher coupon specified pools [19] - The weighted average coupon of the asset portfolio increased to 5.13% during the quarter [19] - The net spread and dollar roll income declined to $0.38 per common share, primarily due to the timing of capital deployment and higher swap costs [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) underperformed relative to benchmark interest rates, with spreads to treasury and swap rates widening [5][7] - The current coupon spread to a blend of treasury and swap benchmarks ended the quarter wider by 7 and 14 basis points, respectively [7] - The expected net supply of new MBS for the year is about $200 billion, at the low end of most forecasts [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AGNC's strategy focuses on maintaining sufficient liquidity to navigate financial market volatility and taking advantage of wider MBS spreads [6][9] - The company aims to deploy capital opportunistically in attractively priced assets while managing leverage [26][27] - The favorable outlook for agency MBS is supported by anticipated regulatory changes and a commitment from key policymakers to maintain implicit guarantees for agency MBS [9][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the financial market stress in April led to a reassessment of macroeconomic and monetary policy outlooks, but most markets recovered by the end of the quarter [4][6] - The company expects bank and foreign demand for agency MBS to grow, with improved seasonal supply patterns for MBS issuance anticipated in Q3 [8][9] - Management expressed confidence in the stability of the mortgage market and the potential for tighter mortgage spreads over time due to supportive government policies [12][21] Other Important Information - The liquidity position totaled $6.4 billion in cash and unencumbered agency MBS, representing 65% of tangible equity, an increase from 63% in the prior quarter [15] - The average projected life CPR of the portfolio declined to 7.8% from 8.3% in Q1, while actual CPRs averaged 8.7% for the quarter, up from 7% in the prior quarter [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the attractive environment and capital raising - Management indicated a favorable outlook for agency MBS and the potential for raising additional capital or increasing leverage as opportunities arise [23][26][27] Question: Core earnings trajectory and dividend levels - Management discussed the alignment of net spread and dollar roll income with portfolio economics, suggesting a return on equity in the high teens range [32][36] Question: Capital deployment status and opportunities - Management confirmed that approximately $1 billion worth of mortgages were purchased recently, with a focus on higher coupon specified pools [43][44] Question: Optimal size of the company and capital issuance - Management emphasized growth driven by accretive capital raising, highlighting the benefits of scale and liquidity for shareholders [50][53] Question: Balance between swap hedges and treasury futures - Management noted a preference for a balanced mix of swaps and treasuries, with a current overweight in swaps due to market conditions [58][60] Question: Impact of government budget deficit on the repo market - Management expressed confidence that treasury issuance would not materially impact the repo market, citing ample liquidity [90][92] Question: Changes in credit scoring and prepayment environment - Management acknowledged potential impacts from changes in credit scoring but deemed them not significantly impactful from an investor perspective [100][104] Question: Risks associated with prepayment protection - Management recognized the risk of increased prepayment speeds due to market efficiency but noted that significant rate drops would be necessary for widespread refinancing [106][112]