There will be a temporary ceasefire within next 45 days. The GCC cannot withstand this pressure for much longer. The US military will mostly exit the region. The popularity rate is too low to mobilise ground troops.The next wave of conflict will be ignited by skirmishes in the nearby areas, eg Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, and Bahrain. This time it triggers a proper Iran-Israel war that lasts at least five years.Nuclear weapon use on inhabited sites won’t happen, but Iran will achieve nuclear capabilities. Eventu ...

Core Insights - Investors are optimistic that President Trump's upcoming trip to Asia may lead to a trade truce with China, which could significantly impact markets [1][2] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China are expected to be another data point in the series of tit-for-tat economic actions, with limited high expectations for a breakthrough [3] - Positive outcomes from the talks could include discussions on key issues such as soybeans and rare earths, but any truce is likely to be temporary rather than a grand bargain [4][8] - The dynamics of the trade relationship have changed since the previous trade war in 2017-2018, with China developing new leverage tools that may require the US to make concessions [4][5] Group 2: Economic Dependencies - Both the US and China aim to reduce their dependency on each other while maintaining essential trade ties, recognizing that complete decoupling is not feasible [5][6] - China seeks to secure semiconductors and reduce its reliance on US goods, while the US is focused on rare earths [6][8] - The mutual economic dependencies may incentivize both sides to avoid severe economic downturns, leading to a muddled truce while pursuing long-term goals [7][8]