Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies involved Core Insights - The Game Theory framework indicates that the current tariff regime between the US and China represents a Nash equilibrium, where both sides are better off maintaining the status quo rather than escalating tariffs further [5][19][29] - China’s recent restrictions on rare earth elements (REE) have led to a significant increase in its projected losses, from $76 billion under the trade truce to $212 billion due to new tariffs [19][21] - The US is projected to gain $219 billion instead of $67 billion due to the new tariff regime, despite the loss of REE supply [20][21] Summary by Sections Trade War Dynamics - The report discusses the implications of the trade war, particularly focusing on the tariffs imposed by both the US and China, and how these tariffs affect bilateral trade [3][16] - The introduction of tariffs has led to an expected 18.1% decline in Chinese exports to the US and a 3.4% drop in US exports to China [37][41] Tariff Projections - The US is expected to collect $82.2 billion in tariffs from Chinese exports, while China will collect around $13.5 billion from US exports [41][46] - The current tariff regime of 30% on Chinese goods and 10% on US goods is seen as more favorable for China compared to previous higher tariffs [51][54] Rare Earth Elements (REE) - The report highlights the strategic importance of REE in the trade war, noting that China has a near-monopoly on REE processing, accounting for 99% of global production [54][70] - The US is currently reliant on China for 70% of its REE, but plans are in place to reduce this dependency by 2027 [70][81] Future Expectations - The report anticipates that China will likely impose retaliatory tariffs of 110% in response to the US tariffs, which would further escalate the trade war [26][27] - The potential for a renewed trade agreement at the upcoming APEC summit is contingent on China's actions regarding retaliatory tariffs [30][31]

RT Stoney Bitson (@GhostOfStoneyX2)@DzambhalaHODL Nick Szabo said way more interesting things in Shelling Out from 2002.Nash Equilibrium, prisoners dilemma and hawk/dove especially for mitigating aggression .Jason Lowery has provided nothing of value to the scientific community with his thesis. https://t.co/ZOJj0ogQOX ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the ongoing trade dynamics between the US and China, particularly focusing on the recent extension of the trade truce and its implications for bilateral trade and tariffs [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Truce Extension**: The US and China have extended their trade truce for three months, with the US maintaining a 30% tariff on Chinese goods and China applying a 10% tariff on US goods [1]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: The 30% tariffs are projected to cause an 18.1% decline in Chinese exports to the US, while the 10% tariff on US exports to China is expected to result in a 3.4% drop [3][6]. - **Tariff Revenue**: The US is anticipated to collect $82.2 billion in tariffs despite the decline in Chinese exports, while China is expected to collect around $13.5 billion from US exports [9][11]. - **Bilateral Trade Share**: China is expected to dominate bilateral trade with a 65.8% share compared to the US's 34.2%, a decrease from the 77.9% share before the trade war [14]. - **Game Theory Analysis**: Under various tariff scenarios, the US's gains and China's losses are analyzed, showing that the current 30%/10% tariff regime results in a $77 billion gain for the US and a $76 billion loss for China [17][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Rare Earth Elements (REE)**: The US's reliance on China for REE is highlighted, with China controlling 99% of REE processing. The imposition of restrictions on REE exports by China is seen as a significant factor in the trade dynamics [19][22]. - **Future Tariff Considerations**: The potential for the US to impose additional tariffs on China, similar to those on India for Russian oil purchases, is discussed. However, the presence of REE restrictions complicates this decision [24][27]. - **Strategic Implications**: The US's strategy regarding REE and tariffs is viewed as a Nash Equilibrium, indicating that any shift in this balance will require significant changes in the underlying economic conditions [20][29]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The call identifies non-Chinese rare earth companies, such as MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths, as potential investment opportunities due to the anticipated growth in demand for REE driven by US defense policies [45][46]. Conclusion - The trade relationship between the US and China remains complex, with tariffs playing a crucial role in shaping trade dynamics. The focus on rare earth elements and the strategic implications of tariffs suggest potential shifts in investment opportunities and market behavior in the near future [29][35].