Group 1 - The article discusses a free two-week trial for the Distressed Value Investing community, which provides exclusive research on various companies and investment opportunities [1] - Concerns were raised about natural gas oversupply, leading to the belief that 2026 strip prices were too high, although overall production has eased somewhat [1] - The author, Aaron Chow, has over 15 years of analytical experience and focuses on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results and does not provide specific investment recommendations [2] - It highlights that the views expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, and the analysts involved may not be licensed or certified [2]

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a natural gas injection of 90 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Sept. 12, exceeding market expectations of 78 Bcf and the five-year average of 74 Bcf [3][9] - Total natural gas stocks reached 3,433 Bcf, which is 204 Bcf (6.3%) higher than the five-year average, but only 4 Bcf (0.1%) below the 2024 level [4][9] - Natural gas prices closed at $2.888, down 1.8% from the previous week, influenced by oversupply, weaker LNG exports, and reduced demand [5][9] Market Dynamics - Analysts remain optimistic about the natural gas market, citing robust industrial demand, steady U.S. output, and rising LNG exports as factors likely to tighten balances and support firmer pricing moving into 2026 [1][7] - The total supply of natural gas averaged 111.8 Bcf per day, a decrease of 0.6 Bcf per day from the previous week, due to lower dry production and reduced shipments from Canada [4] Company Focus - **The Williams Companies**: Positioned to benefit from long-term U.S. natural gas demand growth, with a strong portfolio of large-scale projects and handling a third of U.S. natural gas [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Williams Companies' 2025 earnings per share indicates a 14.5% year-over-year growth [11] - **Cheniere Energy**: Holds a competitive advantage as the first company to receive regulatory approval for LNG exports from its Sabine Pass terminal, with significant revenue and earnings growth expected [12] - The Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion is progressing well, with construction 68% complete [13] - **Excelerate Energy**: Specializes in LNG infrastructure and services, representing 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) fleet [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excelerate Energy's 2025 earnings per share indicates a 5.5% year-over-year growth [15]

Industry Overview - Natural gas prices ended the week slightly higher at $3.447 per Mcf, despite ongoing supply-side pressures and bearish market sentiment [6][10] - The latest EIA report indicated a storage build of 101 billion cubic feet (Bcf), exceeding market expectations and marking the fifth consecutive week of triple-digit builds [4][10] - Total natural gas stocks reached 2,476 Bcf, which is 316 Bcf (11.3%) below the 2024 level but 93 Bcf (3.9%) above the five-year average [5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The total supply of natural gas averaged 112.5 Bcf per day, an increase of 0.7 Bcf per day week-over-week, primarily due to higher shipments from Canada [5] - Daily natural gas consumption decreased to 97.3 Bcf from 98.1 Bcf the previous week, attributed to weakened power demand [5] - Forecasts predict cooler-than-normal conditions in key demand regions, which may continue to suppress gas usage from the power sector [7] Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Expand Energy (EXE), Gulfport Energy (GPOR), and Antero Resources (AR), which are well-positioned amid the current market conditions [3][10] - Expand Energy has become the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and is expected to benefit from increasing demand driven by LNG exports and electrification trends, with a projected 444.7% year-over-year earnings growth for 2025 [11][12] - Gulfport Energy, emerging from bankruptcy, focuses on free cash flow and debt reduction, with a forecasted 61.7% year-over-year earnings growth for 2025 [13][14] - Antero Resources, with a strong production outlook from its low-cost drilling inventory, anticipates a remarkable 1,485.7% year-over-year earnings growth for 2025 [15][16]