Price Movements - March Nymex natural gas closed down by -0.015 (-0.50%) after an early advance [1] - Natural gas prices initially rose due to forecasts of colder weather in the US, expected to increase heating demand [2] - Prices fell to a 4-month low on forecasts of above-normal temperatures in the eastern US, potentially reducing heating demand [3] Production and Demand - US dry gas production was reported at 113.1 bcf/day, a 12.4% increase year-over-year [4] - Lower-48 state gas demand was 87.5 bcf/day, a decrease of 33.6% year-over-year [4] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 19.7 bcf/day, a 2.4% increase week-over-week [4] Future Projections - The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry natural gas production to 109.97 bcf/day from 108.82 bcf/day [5] - Current US natural gas production is near record highs, with active rigs at a 2.5-year high [5] Weather Impact - A significant storm on January 28 caused natural gas prices to surge to a 3-year high due to Arctic cold weather disrupting production [6] - Approximately 50 billion cubic feet of natural gas, or about 15% of total US production, went offline due to freeze-ups [6] Electricity Output - US electricity output in the week ended February 14 fell by 1.61% year-over-year to 83,348 GWh [7] - However, electricity output over the 52-week period ending February 14 rose by 2.36% year-over-year to 4,314,431 GWh [7]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have surged over 60% this week due to a historic winter storm expected to increase heating demand and deplete inventories [2] - The EIA has revised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 down to 107.4 bcf/day, indicating potential support for prices [4] Group 1: Price Movements - February natural gas prices closed up by +0.230 (+4.56%) on Friday [1] - Prices remain below Thursday's 3-year nearest-futures high despite the recent surge [2] Group 2: Weather Impact - An Arctic cold front is expected to affect over 150 million people across 24 states, including Texas, which is home to key gas production sites [2][3] - The cold weather may disrupt gas production as water in pipelines freezes, increasing the risk of temporary outages [3] Group 3: Production and Demand - US dry gas production was reported at 109.6 bcf/day, an increase of +8.7% year-on-year [5] - Lower-48 state gas demand was recorded at 126.0 bcf/day, a slight decrease of -0.5% year-on-year [5] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 19.8 bcf/day, up +5.3% week-on-week [5] Group 4: Inventory Levels - The EIA reported a draw of -120 bcf in natural gas inventories for the week ended January 16, exceeding market expectations [7] - Current inventories are +6.0% year-on-year and +6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply [7] - European gas storage was reported to be 48% full, compared to a 5-year average of 62% for this time of year [7]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have surged over 60% in three days, reaching a three-year high due to forecasts of Arctic weather impacting the US, increasing heating demand and potentially disrupting production [1] - Texas is expected to experience frigid conditions, raising the risk of temporary outages and reduced natural gas production, prompting disaster declarations from the governor [2] Price Movements - February natural gas closed up by +0.170 (+3.49%) on Thursday, continuing a parabolic rally [1] - Weekly EIA report indicated a larger-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories, with a decrease of -120 billion cubic feet (bcf) compared to expectations of -98 bcf [3][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The EIA has revised its forecast for US dry natural gas production in 2026 down to 107.4 bcf/day from 109.11 bcf/day, supporting price stability [4] - Current US dry gas production stands at 110.3 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +9.0% [5] Demand and Inventory Levels - Lower-48 state gas demand was reported at 112.6 bcf/day, a decrease of -15.0% year-over-year [5] - Natural gas inventories are currently up +6.0% year-over-year and +6.1% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply levels [7]

Group 1: Natural Gas Prices and Demand - February natural gas prices surged by +5.22%, closing up +0.175, as colder weather forecasts for the Midwest and East Coast are expected to boost heating demand [1] - The Edison Electric Institute reported a +6.7% year-over-year increase in US electricity output for the week ending January 3, reaching 82,732 GWh, which supports higher gas prices [2] Group 2: Natural Gas Production and Inventory - The EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US natural gas production to 107.74 bcf/day, indicating a bearish outlook for prices as production is near record highs [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 112.6 bcf/day, a +10.9% year-over-year increase, while gas demand decreased by -26.9% year-over-year to 89.5 bcf/day [4] - Recent EIA reports indicated a smaller-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories, with a decline of -38 bcf compared to a consensus of -51 bcf, suggesting ample supplies [5] Group 3: Drilling Activity - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs decreased by -2 to 125 rigs, remaining below the 2.25-year high of 130 rigs set in late November [6]

Core Insights - January Nymex natural gas prices increased by 11.17% to close at +0.443, driven by heavy short-covering and colder weather forecasts for the East Coast [1] - The EIA raised its 2025 US natural gas production forecast to 107.74 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), indicating a bearish outlook for prices due to high production levels [2] - US dry gas production reached 113.9 bcf/day, a 9.6% year-over-year increase, while demand decreased by 12.6% year-over-year to 87.9 bcf/day [3] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is near record highs, with active drilling rigs at a two-year peak of 127 [2][6] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 19.5 bcf/day, reflecting a 4.9% week-over-week increase [3] - Electricity output in the US rose by 2.3% year-over-year to 85,330 GWh, supporting gas prices [4] Inventory and Storage - Natural gas inventories fell by 167 bcf for the week ending December 12, which was less than the market consensus but above the five-year average [5] - As of December 17, European gas storage was 68% full, below the five-year seasonal average of 78% [5]

Group 1: Natural Gas Price Movements - January Nymex natural gas prices closed down by -0.081 (-1.65%) after reaching a 3-year nearest-futures high, influenced by warmer weather forecasts reducing heating demand [1] - Negative carryover from a decline in European natural gas prices, which fell to a 1.5-year low, also weighed on US natural gas prices [2] - Initial price rally was driven by forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Northeast and Great Lakes, but this was reversed by subsequent warmer forecasts [2] Group 2: Production and Demand Dynamics - Higher US natural gas production is a bearish factor, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by +1.0% to 107.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 112.7 bcf/day (+7.5% year-over-year), while gas demand was at 114.8 bcf/day (+1.5% year-over-year) [4] - Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals decreased to 17.6 bcf/day (-2.1% week-over-week) [4] Group 3: Electricity Output and Inventory Levels - US electricity output rose by +5.33% year-over-year to 75,586 GWh for the week ending November 15, supporting gas prices [5] - Natural gas inventories fell by -11 bcf for the week ending November 21, which was a larger draw than market consensus but less than the 5-year average [6] - As of November 21, natural gas inventories were down -0.8% year-over-year and +4.2% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supply levels [6]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices increased by 2.48% on Friday, reaching a one-week high due to forecasts of colder weather in the US, which is expected to boost heating demand [1] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected decline in natural gas inventories, which supported price increases [2][6] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is at a record high, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 1.0% to 107.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) [3] - As of Friday, US dry gas production was 111.1 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.9%, while gas demand was 82.8 bcf/day, down 9.2% year-over-year [4] Storage and Supply - The EIA reported a decrease of 14 billion cubic feet (bcf) in natural gas inventories for the week ending November 14, which was more than the expected decline of 12 bcf and significantly below the five-year average increase of 12 bcf for the same period [2][6] - As of November 18, European gas storage was 81% full, compared to the five-year seasonal average of 90% [6] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a year-over-year increase of 5.33% in US electricity output for the week ending November 15, totaling 75,586 GWh, which may support natural gas demand for electricity generation [5]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices in the US increased by 3.70% on Thursday due to colder weather forecasts, which are expected to boost heating demand [1] - US dry gas production reached 107.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), marking a 3.7% year-over-year increase, while gas demand rose to 79.2 bcf/day, a 12.1% year-over-year increase [2] - The EIA's report indicated that natural gas inventories rose by 74 billion cubic feet (bcf), aligning with market expectations but exceeding the 5-year average [5] Production and Demand - US natural gas production is currently near record highs, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by 0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day [3] - Active natural gas drilling rigs in the US remained stable at 121, just below the 2.25-year high of 124 rigs [6] Electricity Output - US electricity output increased by 1.9% year-over-year to 72,772 gigawatt hours (GWh) for the week ending October 25, contributing positively to gas prices [4] Inventory Levels - As of October 24, natural gas inventories were up 0.5% year-over-year and 4.6% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating sufficient supply [5] - European gas storage was reported to be 83% full, compared to the 5-year average of 92% for this time of year [5]

Core Insights - Natural gas prices have declined, with November Nymex natural gas closing down by 1.20% on Friday, following a loss of 3.07% on Thursday, reaching a new one-week low [1] - The bearish trend in natural gas prices is attributed to a higher-than-expected increase in inventories reported by the EIA, which rose by 87 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending October 17, surpassing both market expectations and the five-year average [1][6] Production and Demand - US dry gas production reached 108.5 bcf/day, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.5%, while gas demand was reported at 76.1 bcf/day, up 0.6% year-over-year [3] - LNG net flows to US export terminals were estimated at 16.6 bcf/day, marking a week-over-week increase of 2.0% [3] Inventory and Supply Factors - The EIA's report indicated that natural gas inventories were 0.6% higher year-over-year and 4.5% above the five-year seasonal average, suggesting sufficient supply levels [6] - In Europe, gas storage was reported to be 83% full as of October 21, compared to the five-year average of 92% for this time of year [6] Weather Impact - A mixed weather forecast has negatively impacted natural gas prices, with cooler temperatures expected across much of the central and eastern US from October 29 to November 2, while warmer conditions are anticipated for the eastern two-thirds of the US and cooler weather in the West from November 3 to 7 [2] Production Forecast - The EIA has raised its forecast for US natural gas production in 2025 by 0.5% to 107.14 bcf/day, indicating that production levels are near record highs, supported by an increase in active natural gas rigs [4]

Price Movements - November Nymex natural gas closed down by -0.118 (-3.43%) on Friday, adding to losses from Thursday due to forecasts of warm weather in mid-October, which is expected to reduce heating demand for natural gas [1] - Natural gas prices had previously jumped to a 2.5-month high due to a smaller-than-expected build in weekly gas storage, with inventories rising by +53 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ended September 26, below the expected +64 bcf [2][6] Production and Demand - Higher US natural gas production has been a bearish factor for prices, with the EIA raising its 2025 production forecast by +0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 108.4 bcf/day (+5.4% year-over-year), while lower-48 state gas demand was at 66.4 bcf/day (-7.4% year-over-year) [4] Storage and Supply - The EIA's report indicated that natural gas inventories were +0.4% year-over-year and +5.0% above the 5-year seasonal average, suggesting adequate supplies [6] - As of September 30, gas storage in Europe was reported to be 85% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 90% for this time of year [6] Electricity Output - The Edison Electric Institute reported a +5.96% year-over-year increase in US electricity output for the week ended September 27, reaching 84,530 GWh, which may support gas prices [5]