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2025,牛市来了
雪球· 2025-03-20 07:45
Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the core factor supporting the current bull market in A-shares is the confidence of investors in the national economy and its recovery [3]. Economic Data Summary - As of March 17, A-share market capitalization reached 99.25 trillion, marking a historical high, with the Shanghai Composite Index also hitting a new year-to-date high [2]. - Economic indicators show that the economy is still in a recovery phase, with CPI down 0.1% and PPI down 2.2% year-on-year for January-February [4]. - Social financing (社融) for the first two months of 2025 totaled 9.29 trillion, an increase of 1.32 trillion year-on-year, the second-highest for the same period historically [4]. Financing Breakdown - Government bonds saw a net financing increase of 1.49 trillion year-on-year in January-February, serving as the core support for social financing growth [5]. - Corporate bonds had a net financing of 615.6 billion, an increase of 41.4 billion year-on-year, indicating a relatively smooth direct financing channel [6]. - On the household side, short-term loans decreased by 212.7 billion year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans also showed a decline, reflecting weak housing demand [7]. Monetary Supply Insights - M1 (narrow money) growth rate was 0.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in corporate demand deposits [8]. - M2 (broad money) growth rate remained stable at 7.0% year-on-year, suggesting stable total money supply but insufficient transmission efficiency [8]. - The "scissors difference" (M1-M2) was -6.9%, indicating that funds are being deposited in long-term accounts, putting pressure on economic activity [9]. Technological and Cultural Achievements - Chinese companies have made significant breakthroughs in technology, with examples like Yush Robot leading globally and Deepseek breaking the U.S. monopoly on large models [10]. - In the cultural sector, the film "Nezha 2" has grossed over 15 billion globally, ranking fifth in global box office history, with potential to rise to fourth [10]. - By the end of 2024, Pop Mart's global revenue share is expected to reach 30%, showcasing the international expansion of Chinese culture [10]. Market Sentiment - Despite various negative factors, A-shares have remained resilient, stabilizing above 3,400 points, indicating a strong market sentiment [11]. - The current economic phase is characterized as a transition between old and new growth drivers, with ongoing data recovery [11].