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镍:基本面短线支撑,镍价坚挺运行,不锈钢:成本或底部支撑,负反馈预期施压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 02:37
Report Summary 1. Report Date and Title - The report is dated April 15, 2025, titled "Nickel: Short - term Fundamental Support, Nickel Prices Firm; Stainless Steel: Cost May Provide Bottom Support, Negative Feedback Expectations Exert Pressure" [1][2] 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are expected to run firmly due to short - term fundamental support, while stainless steel prices may be supported by cost at the bottom but face pressure from negative feedback expectations [1][2] 3. Key Data Summary 3.1 Futures Data - **Nickel Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 123,090, with a change of 1,790 compared to T - 1. The trading volume is 173,645, a change of 3,314 from T - 1 [2] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,805, up 105 from T - 1. The trading volume is 132,926, an increase of 56,160 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Industrial Chain Data - **Nickel Products**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 123,150, up 2,550 from T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 995, down 3 from T - 1 [2] - **Stainless Steel Products**: The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,200, up 50 from T - 1. The price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) is 12,775, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 4. Macro and Industry News - The GNI nickel - iron project in Indonesia has gradually resumed production after cutbacks in January - February. Its capacity utilization increased from 30% to 50% in March, with an expected monthly output increase of about 0.2 million nickel metal tons in March. It plans to reach normal production by the end of April [2] - The Indonesian government proposed to adjust non - tax state revenues, raising the resource tax rates of nickel ore, nickel - iron, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte to floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively [3] - The governor of Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [4][5] - The Ramu nickel - cobalt project's Basamuk HPAL plant has resumed full - load production. Its MHP guidance output in 2025 is about 32,000 nickel metal tons [5] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources signaled that new rules related to increasing mineral and coal royalties will be issued before Eid al - Fitr or March 31, 2025 [5] - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US starting from April 10, 2025, at 12:01 [5] 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [5]