J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 27 March 2026 Nickel Higher floor, V-shaped risks Global Commodities Research Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ali A. Ibrahim (44-20) 3493-6438 ali.ibrahim@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Ananyashree Gupta (91-22) 6157 3627 ananyashree.gupta@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan India Private Limited See page 11 for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{HjL41O6oybGWjz1aDb_EjD3g4tjzcn57UZm1V2UaVWTi1 ...

商品日报 20260401 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：中巴呼吁中东局势降温，海外市场风偏修复 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 海外方面，美伊局势仍处于"边打边谈、以压促谈"阶段：美方释放未来 2-3 周内结束 对伊行动的收手信号，但军事施压并未明显松动；与此同时，中国和巴基斯坦呼吁全力阻止 中东冲突扩散蔓延，尽快恢复霍尔木兹海峡正常通航。市场风险偏好明显回升，美股高开高 走，纳指收涨近 4%，油价回落约 3%，金银铜延续修复，美债利率回落至 4.4%下方，美元 指数降至 99.7。本周继续关注美伊局势演变，以及美国 2 月非农在内的一系列就业与 PMI 数据。在地缘冲突尚未明显缓和之前，预计短期各类资产仍将维持高波动。 国内方面，3 月中国官方 PMI 整体回升，制造业 PMI 重返扩张区间至 50.4，显示节后 复工复产和订单修复带动经济景气改善，但中小企业、出口订单及成本压力仍制约修复持续 性；非制造业方面，服务业和建筑业景气水平均处于历年同期偏低位置，后续仍有待修复。 A 股周二高开回落，上证指数收跌 0.8%，再度回落至 ...

Core Insights - Mink Ventures Corporation has received a grant of $93,365.81 from the Government of Ontario to support critical minerals exploration at its Warren nickel, copper, and cobalt project [1][2] - The Warren property spans 1,130 hectares and is located approximately 35 km west of Timmins, Ontario, near Mink's Montcalm project [1][4] - The recent drill program at Warren successfully intersected mineralization in all drill holes, with notable results including a massive sulphide zone returning 0.44% nickel, 0.28% copper, and 0.06% cobalt over 7.1 meters [2][4] Company Overview - Mink Ventures Corporation is focused on exploring critical minerals such as nickel, copper, and cobalt at its Warren and Montcalm projects in the Timmins area [4] - The Montcalm Project is adjacent to Glencore's former Montcalm Mine, which historically produced 3.93 million tonnes of ore with grades of 1.25% nickel, 0.67% copper, and 0.051% cobalt [4] - Both projects are drill-ready, permitted, and have good access to infrastructure, including an all-weather access road and power [4] Exploration Plans - The company plans to purchase a historical VTEM survey conducted on the Warren property and perform Maxwell plate analysis to prioritize VTEM anomalies [3] - This data will complement existing ground induced polarization and magnetic surveys, aiding in preparation for a major drilling campaign [3]

Core Viewpoint - Vale S.A and Rio Tinto are major competitors in the global metals and mining sector, both playing crucial roles in the supply of essential commodities like iron ore and copper, which are vital for industrial and economic development [1][3]. Vale Overview - Vale reported revenues of $38 billion in 2025, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.82, up 15% due to cost discipline [4]. - Iron ore production reached approximately 336 million tons (Mt), copper output was about 382 thousand tons (kt), and nickel production was roughly 177 kt, all exceeding expectations [4]. - Vale aims for iron ore production capacity of 335-345 Mt in 2026, targeting 360 Mt by 2030, with key projects expected to add about 15 Mt per year [5]. - The company is investing in base metals, projecting copper production of 350-380 kt in 2026, with a target of 700 kt by 2035, indicating a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024-2035 [6]. - Vale's nickel production is expected to be between 175 kt and 200 kt in 2026, with projections of 210-250 kt by 2030 [9]. Rio Tinto Overview - Rio Tinto's revenues rose 7% year-over-year to $57.6 billion in fiscal 2025, with underlying earnings per share of $6.69, remaining flat year-over-year [12]. - The company reported iron ore production at Pilbara of 327.3 Mt in 2025, flat year-over-year, with shipments totaling 326.2 Mt, down 1% year-over-year [12]. - Copper production reached 883 kt in 2025, up 11% year-over-year, supported by the ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi [13]. - Rio Tinto is expanding into lithium, targeting over 200 kt lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) capacity by 2028 through the Arcadium deal [11][16]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vale's 2026 earnings is $2.10 per share, indicating a 15.4% year-over-year growth, while Rio Tinto's estimate is $8.36 per share, reflecting a 25.9% growth [17]. - Both Vale's earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been revised downward, while Rio Tinto's estimates have moved up [18]. Price Performance & Valuation - Over the past year, Vale's stock has gained 50.6%, while Rio Tinto's stock has appreciated 44.2% [19]. - Vale is trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 1.65X, compared to Rio Tinto's 1.80X [20]. Conclusion - Both companies are positioned to benefit from rising long-term demand for steelmaking materials and energy transition metals, with Rio Tinto having broader diversification and stronger earnings visibility, while Vale offers a competitive advantage in high-grade iron ore and a more attractive valuation [21].

Core Insights - PTX Metals Inc. has reported significant advancements in understanding the geological controls on gold mineralization at its Shining Tree Gold Project, leading to the identification of multiple priority exploration targets, including a drill-ready target at the Ronda Strip [1][6][19] Exploration Targets - Five priority exploration targets have been identified, with the Ronda target being drill-ready, which is part of a folded gold-mineralized horizon extending several kilometers [4][8] - The Northwestern and Western targets are earlier-stage opportunities that require additional surface work, with historic sampling from the Northgate No. 3 Zone returning values up to 8.23 g/t gold and 20 g/t silver [5][8] Geological Studies - The recent high-resolution magnetic survey has revealed previously unrecognized structures related to the Ridout-Tyrell Deformation Zone (RTDZ), which hosts significant regional deposits [2][9] - Structural interpretation work has refined the geological model, highlighting prospective zones associated with the RTDZ, enhancing confidence in drill targeting [3][15] Upcoming Plans - PTX plans to advance drilling at the Ronda Target while continuing surface exploration across other priority areas identified by the survey results [19][22] - Specific details regarding the diamond drilling program and timing will be provided separately, with ongoing work aimed at refining drill targeting and understanding the Shining Tree gold system [19][22]

Summary of Global Metals & Mining Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Global Metals & Mining sector, analyzing hundreds of mining projects across twelve commodities that could contribute over 1% of current demand [1][2]. Key Findings - **Supply Threats**: There is no imminent threat of a large supply surge for base and precious metals, but concerns exist regarding lithium and potash supply [2][5]. - **Types of Supply Walls**: - **Quantity**: Driven by numerous small greenfield projects, which are generally high-cost and less impactful [3]. - **Quality**: Significant supply surges can occur from world-class mines entering the market [4]. Commodity Analysis - **Least Threatened Commodities**: Diamonds, gold, zinc, and silver show the least threat of supply surges [5]. - **Most Threatened Commodities**: Potash, lithium, platinum, iron ore, and cobalt are identified as having the most significant supply threats [5]. - **Concentration of Supply**: Potash, lithium, and bauxite have a high concentration of supply from mega-projects, while gold, silver, and zinc are more diffuse [5]. Project Viability - The majority of projects reviewed are not imminent and should be monitored rather than feared. The transition from spreadsheet projects to physical mines is challenging, particularly due to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) concerns [6]. Traffic Light Approach - A traffic light system is used to assess project viability, indicating that many projects are still in early stages and unlikely to contribute significantly to supply in the near term [6][16]. Changes in Project Pipeline - The analysis shows minimal changes in the project pipeline compared to previous years, with lithium showing a notable decrease in potential supply due to increased demand outpacing resource growth [24][25]. Investment Implications - **Outperform Ratings**: Maintained for Barrick Mining (ABX), Newmont (NEM), and Rio Tinto (RIO) [9]. - **Market-Perform Ratings**: Maintained for Anglo American (AAL), Antofagasta (ANTO), BHP Group (BHP), Boliden (BOL), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Glencore (GLEN), and Vale (VALE) [10]. Financial Metrics - The report includes a detailed ticker table with adjusted EPS and P/E ratios for various companies, indicating performance expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [7][8]. Conclusion - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding the development pipeline of mining projects and the challenges in transitioning from potential to actual supply, particularly in the context of ESG considerations and market dynamics [6][24].

Company Overview - Ivanhoe Mines is a Canadian mining company focused on advancing its three principal operations in Southern Africa, which include the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the DRC, the ultra-high-grade Kipushi zinc-copper-germanium-silver mine in the DRC, and the tier-one Platreef platinum-palladium-nickel-rhodium-gold-copper mine in South Africa [5]. Upcoming Events - The company will file an updated Kamoa-Kakula technical report and issue a press release summarizing the report shortly after market close on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 [1]. - An investor conference call will be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time / 1:30 p.m. Pacific time to discuss the Kamoa-Kakula technical report, concluding with a Q&A session [2]. Financial Information - After the issuance of the technical report, the condensed consolidated interim financial statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis will be available on the company's website and at SEDAR [4]. Exploration Activities - Ivanhoe Mines is exploring for copper in its highly prospective, 54-100% owned exploration licenses in the Western Forelands, covering an area over six times larger than the adjacent Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex, including high-grade discoveries in the Makoko District [6]. - The company is also exploring for new sedimentary copper discoveries in new horizons including Angola, Kazakhstan, and Zambia [6].

Core Viewpoint - Denarius Metals Corp. announced details regarding the interest payments due on its convertible unsecured debentures, specifically for the 2023 and 2024 Debentures, scheduled for March 31, 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Payment Details - The total principal amount of the 2023 Debentures is CA$19,886,560, with an interest payment of CA$198,866, resulting in the issuance of 228,580 shares [2]. - The total principal amount of the 2024 Debentures is CA$14,272,314, with an interest payment of CA$142,723, leading to the issuance of 164,049 shares [2]. - In total, the company will issue 392,630 shares for the combined interest payments of CA$341,589 on both debenture series [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Denarius Metals is a Canadian junior mining company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and development of precious metals and polymetallic mining projects in Colombia and Spain [5]. - The company is currently producing gold and silver at its 100%-owned Zancudo Project in Colombia, which is in the early production phase and is expected to start producing high-grade gold-silver concentrates by Q3 2026 [6]. - In Spain, Denarius Metals has interests in three projects, including the Aguablanca Project, which is recognized as a Strategic Project by the EU, and the Lomero and Toral Projects, which focus on critical minerals [7].

Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the region is significantly impacting the refining and processing sectors more than mine production, leading to potential supply disruptions in processed metals which can quickly affect pricing and manufacturing activities [1][5] Group 1: Impact on Mining and Metals Sector - Iran's mining and metals sector is under pressure due to infrastructure disruptions, power constraints, and export bottlenecks, which could lower utilization rates in energy-intensive activities like copper smelting and steelmaking [2] - The conflict is exacerbating existing structural challenges in mining supply chains, prompting a strategic shift towards supply diversification and renewable energy integration [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global trade, and disruptions here are increasing operational costs for mining companies due to higher fuel bills and shipping delays [4][8] Group 2: Specific Metal Impacts - The war's effect on iron ore markets is primarily driven by cost inflation rather than direct supply loss, with Iran producing 61 million tonnes in 2025, representing a 3.8% share of global production [6] - Aluminium production in Iran has decreased by 5.2% year-on-year due to electricity shortages and financial constraints, with the country producing 552,200 tonnes in the first 11 months of the 2025 financial year [11] - Nickel, lead, and zinc markets are facing supply risks due to potential disruptions in the sulphur market, which is essential for processing these metals [13][14] Group 3: Commodity Price Volatility and Strategic Shifts - The conflict is contributing to commodity price volatility, particularly affecting metals like copper and nickel that rely on stable energy and refining inputs [16] - The geopolitical situation is highlighting the vulnerability of interconnected mineral supply chains, making them more sensitive to disruptions [17] - The conflict may increase the strategic importance of China in global mineral supply chains as Western economies seek to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern resources [18] Group 4: Broader Industrial Implications - The oil and gas disruptions are forcing Asian countries to adjust energy consumption patterns, which could impact mining operations and metal processing costs [19]

Core Insights - The company is focusing on a faster regulatory and development pathway for deep seabed minerals under the U.S. permitting regime, moving away from reliance on the International Seabed Authority [5][6] - The company has reported significant economic outputs from its studies, including a combined estimated net present value of $23.6 billion and projected revenues of approximately $369 billion [6] - The company is developing a potential nodule processing hub in Texas, with a pre-feasibility study underway for a 12 million tonnes per annum capacity [9][12] Regulatory and Environmental Developments - The company is nearing completion of its environmental impact statement process, supported by a large environmental data set built over 15 years [2] - A consolidated application submitted to NOAA was deemed "substantially compliant," with expectations for a commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months [4] - The company's consolidated application has expanded the expected commercial recovery area from 25,000 square kilometers to approximately 65,000 square kilometers [3] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company reported a net loss of $40.4 million, attributed to increased general and administrative expenses [17] - Free cash outflow for Q4 was $11.5 million, with a total of $43.1 million for the full year 2025 [18] - The company reported a year-end 2025 cash balance of $117.6 million, with liquidity expected to be about $154 million by March 31, 2026 [16] Strategic Partnerships and Operations - The company has reached a commercial agreement with Allseas for the development of the "Hidden Gem" offshore system, designed for a nominal capacity of 3 million tonnes per annum [7] - Management is exploring tolling options for the Texas processing hub and has secured an exclusive right over a potential lease option at the Port of Brownsville [9][11] - The company has joined the Defense Industrial Base Consortium to support supply chain vulnerabilities in the defense sector [15]