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Is on! Brand Growth Enough to Offset MST Declines at Altria?
ZACKSยท 2025-08-11 16:25
Core Insights - Altria Group's on! brand experienced significant growth in Q2 2025, with shipments increasing by 26.5% year over year and capturing an 8.7% market share in the oral tobacco segment, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year [1][8] - The oral tobacco segment's adjusted operating income rose by 10.9%, despite challenges in the moist smokeless tobacco (MST) category, which saw declines in retail share for key brands [1][2] Oral Tobacco Segment Performance - The moist smokeless tobacco category faced headwinds, with Copenhagen and Skoal experiencing retail share declines of 3.5 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, leading to an overall decline of 4.6 percentage points in the segment's total retail share to 33.1% [2] - Volumes for Copenhagen and Skoal fell by 7.7% and 8.8%, respectively, indicating a significant downturn in traditional smokeless products [2] Nicotine Pouch Market Dynamics - The nicotine pouch category now constitutes over half of the U.S. oral tobacco market, providing a favorable environment for on!'s growth, although competition is intensifying [3] - on!'s share of the pouch segment decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.7%, highlighting the challenges in maintaining market share [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International's ZYN brand saw U.S. offtake growth of 26% in Q2 2025, with global volumes increasing by 43% due to expansion into 44 markets, supporting a multi-category smoke-free strategy [5] - Turning Point Brands reported a nearly eightfold increase in Modern Oral sales to $30.1 million, aiming for a double-digit U.S. market share by the end of the decade [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - Altria's shares increased by 10.5% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 1.3% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7X, lower than the industry's average of 15.36X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has risen by 3 cents and 2 cents, respectively, to $5.39 and $5.55 [11]