Summary of Cameco (NYSE:CCJ) FY Conference Call - January 22, 2026 Industry Overview - The nuclear industry fundamentals are reported to be stronger than ever, with increasing demand for uranium driven by the revival of nuclear reactors and new constructions globally [2][10] - There are over 60 gigawatt-scale reactors currently under construction worldwide, with significant potential for further developments in 2026 [3][4] Demand Insights - Nuclear demand is projected to rise due to the reactivation and extension of existing reactors, as well as the construction of new reactors [3][4] - The base case demand for uranium is believed to be understated, as it does not account for several significant projects, including a recent $80 billion initiative to build 10 reactors in the U.S. [4][5] - The demand for uranium is also expected to increase from naval propulsion and potential applications in AI and hyperscalers, which are not included in current demand forecasts [5] Supply Dynamics - The supply of uranium is considered overstated, with many projects not operating at full capacity due to insufficient uranium prices [6][9] - The secondary supply, historically significant, is now limited, particularly due to the absence of Russian supply in the Western market [7][8] - The planned production line is also overstated, as preliminary economic assessments are often not realized within the projected timelines [8] Contracting and Pricing Strategy - The uncovered requirements for utilities have never been larger, indicating a strong future demand for uranium [9][10] - The long-term price of uranium is currently at $86 per pound, which is seen as insufficient to convert more resources into reserves [12][19] - The market is shifting towards higher price expectations, with indications that the midpoint of market-related contracts is around $115 per pound [14][16] Strategic Positioning - Cameco is maintaining a disciplined production strategy, not running all assets at full capacity to capture demand at favorable terms [15][19] - The company is focusing on off-market contracts and has significant sovereign demand, indicating a robust pipeline of future contracts [17][19] - Cameco's vertical integration from reactor construction to fuel supply allows for early engagement in the supply chain, enhancing its strategic position [30] Enrichment Strategy - Cameco is exploring opportunities in the enrichment space, particularly with Global Laser Enrichment, while being cautious about trade policies and the potential return of Russian enrichment to the market [31][34] - The company is focused on a project to re-enrich depleted UF6 tails, which could yield significant uranium supply without competing directly in the enrichment market [33] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the nuclear industry's revival, with Cameco well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated demand surge and favorable market conditions [20][31]

Core Insights - Meta has signed agreements with three U.S. utilities to purchase enough electricity to power 6 million homes by 2035, indicating a significant boost for nuclear energy demand and uranium [1][2][4] Group 1: Meta's Power Agreements - The agreements cover up to 6.6 gigawatts of power from Vistra, TerraPower, and Oklo, supporting Meta's operations and its Prometheus supercluster in Ohio [2][3] - Meta's commitment positions it as one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear energy in U.S. history, with the potential to create thousands of skilled jobs and extend the life of existing nuclear plants [4] - This follows a previous 20-year deal with Constellation Energy to buy about 1.12 gigawatts from its Clinton nuclear plant, enough to power approximately 1 million homes [5] Group 2: Uranium Market Dynamics - The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has recently purchased 300,000 pounds of uranium, bringing its total holdings to about 75.2 million pounds, with a market value of approximately $6.17 billion [6][7] - The spot uranium price remained stable at $82 per pound, reflecting a 12% increase over 2025, indicating strong market interest [7] Group 3: Political and Industry Context - The political landscape is increasingly favorable for nuclear energy, with significant funding from the U.S. Energy Department for new reactor technologies and initiatives to restart existing plants [8] - Despite the challenges faced by the nuclear industry, including project delays and cost overruns, the involvement of technology companies investing in AI is revitalizing interest and capital in the sector [11][12] Group 4: Ontario's Nuclear Initiatives - Ontario is planning substantial nuclear projects, including four small modular reactors and several large units, which would significantly increase its generation capacity [13][14] - The complexity of building new nuclear plants poses challenges that differ from refurbishing existing units, potentially leading to delays and cost overruns [14][15]

Industry Overview - The uranium and nuclear energy markets are experiencing a renaissance due to rising global power demand and the energy crisis caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, with prices driven by fundamentals such as tight supply and a policy-driven nuclear revival [1] - The uranium market is facing a structural supply deficit, posing challenges for nuclear operators [2] Market Dynamics - Uranium trading typically involves small volumes with specialized participants, leading to significant market volatility [3] - Governments are repositioning nuclear energy as critical infrastructure, exemplified by a recent partnership between the Trump administration, Cameco Corp., and Brookfield Asset Management to develop at least $80 billion in nuclear reactors [3] Stock Performance - The nuclear and uranium sector has seen a sharp pullback, with the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF declining by 16.6% over the past 30 days, contrasting with a nearly 3% gain in the S&P 500 [4] - Specific companies have experienced significant stock declines, including Oklo Inc. (-42.0%), Centrus Energy (-35.9%), and NuScale Power (-47.7%) [5] Future Outlook - The market is beginning to recognize that it may take up to a decade to realize the benefits of the substantial investments in the sector, as traditional reactors typically require over 10 years to construct [6] - Small modular reactors (SMRs) are still in early development and face economic and regulatory challenges, hindering their mainstream adoption [6]

Core Insights - Oklo Inc is advancing its Idaho project at unprecedented speeds, likened to the Manhattan Project, focusing on building power data centers instead of weapons [1][4] - The Department of Energy's new fast-track authorization allows Oklo to begin construction without completing the lengthy NRC licensing process, significantly reducing regulatory risks [2][3] - Oklo plans to convert a government stockpile of plutonium into advanced reactor fuel, transforming a $20 billion liability into a valuable resource for the U.S. nuclear supply chain [3] Group 1: Project Development - Oklo's construction at the Idaho National Laboratory has commenced, with the goal of bringing the Aurora powerhouse online by 2027-2028 [2] - The company has been selected for three DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects, including a plutonium-fueled test system and a fuel fabrication facility [4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The DOE's new authorization framework allows Oklo to "move into build mode and iterate faster," effectively removing significant regulatory hurdles [2] - CEO Jacob DeWitte emphasized that the current approach enables simultaneous building, learning, and licensing, marking a new era for nuclear development [4]

Core Insights - Nuclear energy is gaining traction as a reliable power source, with stocks in the industry, particularly Cameco and Oklo, experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The demand for power from data centers, driven by AI, is projected to increase by 165% by 2030, highlighting the need for reliable energy sources like nuclear [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Nuclear energy is experiencing a global revival, driven by the shift towards low-carbon baseload power and increasing interest in nuclear technology [4] - The nuclear sector requires substantial upfront capital, long lead times, and extensive regulatory oversight for projects such as mining, fuel cycling, and reactor development [4] Group 2: Company Comparisons Cameco - Cameco is one of the world's largest uranium providers, controlling significant high-grade mineral reserves and operating in two segments: uranium and fuel services [5] - The uranium segment includes exploration, mining, milling, and trading of uranium concentrate, with major stakes in the McArthur River and Key Lake mines, as well as Cigar Lake and a joint venture in Kazakhstan [6][7] - Cameco operates the largest commercial uranium refinery in Blind River, Ontario, and holds a 49% interest in Westinghouse, a nuclear reactor technology OEM [8] Oklo - Oklo, founded in 2013, is an early-stage company focused on developing advanced fission power plants with metal-fueled fast-reactor technology [9] - The Aurora powerhouse, Oklo's core product, is designed for compact, scalable electricity production, initially targeting outputs of 15 MWe and 75 MWe, with potential expansion [9][10] - As a pre-revenue company, Oklo reported an operating loss of $45.9 million in the first half of the year, with expected cash usage of $65 million to $80 million for the full year 2025 [11] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Cameco is positioned to benefit from rising uranium prices due to years of underinvestment and mine depletion, with a strong stake in Westinghouse enhancing its market position [13] - Oklo's potential lies in successfully deploying its Aurora reactors, which could serve areas where grid extension is uneconomical [14] - Both companies have seen significant stock price increases, with Cameco rising by 68% and Oklo by 1,119% over the past year, but Cameco is viewed as a better buy due to its established market presence and revenue generation timeline [16][17]

Core Thesis - Centrus Energy Corp. is positioned as a key player in the U.S. nuclear energy sector, uniquely capable of producing enriched uranium at a commercial scale, which is critical for the country's energy security and climate goals [2][3] Company Positioning - The company operates the only NRC-licensed facility in Piketon, Ohio, producing HALEU, essential for advanced reactors, thus reducing reliance on foreign suppliers [3] - Bipartisan support for nuclear energy and recent executive orders favoring domestic enrichment enhance Centrus' strategic advantage [3] Financial Strength - Centrus has a robust financial position with a contracted backlog of $3.6–3.8 billion and $833 million in cash, indicating stability amid revenue volatility [4] - The company has made significant investments in supply chain readiness and has secured a partnership with the Department of Energy to extend HALEU production [4] Market Dynamics - The demand for nuclear energy is bolstered by utilities and Big Tech companies, which supports long-term growth prospects for Centrus [3] - The stock has experienced significant volatility, with a rise of over 350% in the past year, reflecting policy-driven momentum rather than weakening fundamentals [4] Investment Outlook - Centrus is viewed as a high-risk, high-reward investment due to its unique market position and potential to become a monopoly-like supplier in the western nuclear market if production scales successfully [5]