By Aditya Soni and Echo Wang SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK (Reuters) -The Trump administration's hefty new visa fees for H-1B workers have prompted high-level talks inside companies in Silicon Valley and beyond on the possibility of moving more jobs overseas - precisely the outcome the policy was meant to stop. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday announced the change to the visa program that has long been a recruitment pathway for tech firms and encouraged international students to pursue postgraduate cours ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street banks are expected to increase reliance on their Indian business support centers due to new fees imposed on the H-1B visa program, which could lead to a deeper presence in Indian tech hubs [1][3][9] Group 1: Impact of H-1B Visa Changes - The new $100,000 fees on H-1B visa applications may drive banks to expand operations in India, particularly in cities like Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad, which already employ over 1.9 million people [1][3] - Indian-born workers represented 72.3% of all H-1B beneficiaries in the US fiscal year ending September 2023, highlighting the significance of this visa program for the tech and finance sectors [4] Group 2: Growth of Global Capability Centers (GCCs) - The GCC market has reached a value of $64 billion, with an annual growth rate of approximately 9.8% projected from 2019 to 2024, and is expected to grow to $110 billion by 2030 [5] - The number of GCCs is anticipated to increase from 1,700 to as many as 2,500 by 2030, indicating a robust expansion in this sector [5] Group 3: Employment Trends in US Banks - Major US banks like Citigroup, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase are significant employers in India, with Citigroup employing around 33,000 staff, Bank of America over 27,000, and JPMorgan 55,000 [6] - A study indicated that companies often hire more staff abroad in response to restrictions on skilled immigration, suggesting that banks may adjust their strategies accordingly [7] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook - Banks are likely to recalibrate their strategies for GCCs, potentially adding new job functions in India, but will wait for more clarity on the evolving situation [7] - The new H-1B restrictions are expected to accelerate India's role as a hub for critical business functions, compliance, technology, and innovation for international banks [9] - Despite the potential for expansion, uncertainty regarding further US measures may temper banks' global strategies [10]

H-1B visas also see significant usage from financial and consulting organisations. (AI image)Despite Trump's intention to safeguard American employment through immigration restrictions, analysts suggest these new regulations might encourage banks to strengthen their presence in Indian technology centres like Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad, which currently provide employment to over 1.9 million individuals.H-1B visas, extensively utilised by technology sectors in India and the US for skilled foreign workers ...

(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street banks are set to rely more on their Indian business support centers following President Donald Trump’s shock move to impose $100,000 fees on new applications to the widely used H-1B visa program. US lenders including Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among the biggest employers of India’s so-called global capability centers, which handle operations from trading support and risk management to tech assistance. Staffed with software engineers, qu ...

Indian information technology companies took a hit Monday on concern that the hefty increase in US visa fees will pressure earnings at the nation’s leading outsourcing firms. Most Read from Bloomberg The sector gauge dropped 3% in Mumbai, its worst day in over five months, erasing $10 billion in market value. Shares of Infosys Ltd., Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Tech Mahindra Ltd. were the biggest drags on the index. President Donald Trump’s overhaul of the program, including a $100,000 fee fo ...

Societal and Economic Trends - The percentage of young people (Gen Z) who are both homeowners and married has significantly declined from over 50% in 1950 to approximately 15% in 2025 [6] - Young people are delaying or forgoing homeownership due to financial constraints (median home price vs median household income multiple has increased from 2x to over 6x) and lifestyle choices (preference for mobility and flexibility) [11] - The percentage of 30-year-olds who are married has decreased from 90% in 1950 to less than 50% currently [17] - There's a potential resurgence in younger individuals rejecting dating apps and seeking relationships through traditional means like church, friends, and family [19][21] - Gen Z exhibits dissatisfaction and radicalism on both the left and right, potentially leading to political instability [25][26] Offshoring and Labor Market - 60% of new college graduates from the class of 2025 are unemployed or underemployed [29] - AI technology and offshoring practices are applying pressure on entry-level white-collar jobs, making it harder for young Americans to find employment [31] - Microsoft applied to fill 14,000 low-cost H1B positions while simultaneously firing 9,000 American employees [31] - The speaker advocates for mandating disclosure when US firms offshore American jobs, especially when high-paying positions (e g, investment banking associate earning over $150k annually) are replaced by lower-paid overseas workers (e g, under $50k in India) [37] - The speaker suggests taxing offshore labor, potentially at American income tax levels, to balance the cost and provide more opportunities for young Americans [39][40] Risks and Solutions - Offshoring poses security and shareholder risks, as sensitive information from American companies (e g, healthcare providers) may be sent overseas without proper oversight [41][42] - Talent distance equals risk, suggesting that hiring locally can de-risk businesses and potentially lead to better shareholder outcomes in the long term [43][44] - The speaker's firm, New Founding, invests in early-stage startups focused on solving critical civilizational problems [46]

Summary of Aon Labor Market Study Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the labor market study results for the insurance industry in the U.S. conducted by Aon and Jacobson Group, covering staffing trends and challenges within the sector [1][2][4][5]. Key Findings Employment Trends - The national unemployment rate is at 4.2%, while the insurance sector's unemployment rate is significantly lower at 2.3%, down from 3.1% at the beginning of the year [8][9]. - Total carrier employment has remained flat, with a slight decrease of 0.5% since January, indicating a stagnation below pre-pandemic levels [9][10]. - The staffing plans show that 81% of companies expect revenue growth, but only 53% anticipate increasing staff, indicating a divergence between revenue expectations and staffing growth [11][12]. Staffing Expectations - The percentage of companies expecting to decrease employees has hovered around 14%, a level not seen since the pandemic [13]. - The life and health insurance sectors are experiencing a decline in staffing, while property and casualty (P&C) sectors show slight growth [10][19]. - Companies are cautious in hiring due to growth being driven by rate increases rather than organic growth in policy counts [14][15]. Job Market Dynamics - Job openings in finance and insurance have decreased from 327,000 to 307,000, indicating a tighter job market [20][21]. - The staffing expectations for the next twelve months predict a modest increase of 1.03% in industry employment, with P&C balanced organizations expecting a growth of 2.4% [73]. Temporary Staffing - 84% of companies plan to maintain their temporary staffing levels, with only 5% expecting to increase and 11% to decrease [28][29]. - The use of temporary employees is influenced by automation and offshoring trends, particularly in the P&C sector [29]. Turnover Rates - Voluntary turnover is increasing, particularly in personal lines, reflecting employee confidence in the job market [30][31]. - The average turnover rate is reported at 6% for the last six months, lower than the twelve-month average of 9.2% [72]. Recruitment Challenges - The most difficult roles to fill remain in actuarial, executive, and analytics functions, with 12% of companies reporting increased difficulty in hiring compared to the previous year [71]. - There is a notable shift towards hiring experienced staff, particularly in technology and underwriting roles, while entry-level positions are more common in life and health sectors [45][49]. Additional Insights - Companies are increasingly offering flexible work hours, with 85% providing such options, which is becoming a significant factor in recruitment and retention [53][54]. - The impact of automation is a primary reason for expected reductions in headcount, with many companies reorganizing their staffing structures [69][70]. - The commercial lines sector is showing optimism for growth, particularly in specialty markets, while personal lines are recovering to historical profitability levels [51][52]. Conclusion - The insurance industry is facing a complex labor market characterized by low unemployment rates, cautious hiring practices, and a shift towards automation and offshoring. Companies are optimistic about revenue growth but are tempering their staffing expectations, leading to a modest outlook for employment growth in the coming year [66][68].

Manufacturing Reshoring & Challenges - Guardian Bikes shifted manufacturing from China starting in 2022, facing risks and initial losses [1][2] - US manufacturing firms and plants decreased by 25% between 1997 and 2023 due to falling global trade barriers [3] - Obstacles to reshoring include higher costs and the need to rebuild domestic supply chains [5][13][19] - Automation is crucial for US manufacturers to combat offshoring advantages like lower labor costs [15] Guardian Bikes' Strategy & Progress - Guardian Bikes' annual revenue exceeds $100 million, producing approximately 12 thousand bikes weekly [11] - The company aims for 70% of bike components to be US-made by the end of 2025, potentially reaching 100% by 2026 [17] - On each assembly line, Guardian Bikes produces about 1 thousand bikes a day, equating to one bike every 30 seconds [1] - Guardian Bikes leverages proximity to other manufacturers to source parts locally [16] Economic & Policy Context - The average wage for a manufacturing worker in the US is around $35 per hour, compared to approximately $4 per hour in China and $1.30 per hour in Vietnam [24] - China's spending on industrial policy was around $248 billion in 2019, compared to $84 billion (0.39% of GDP) by the US [25] - The US has shifted towards a service-based economy, with service jobs accounting for over 80% of non-farm employment [32]