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Core Viewpoint - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its oil-demand outlook while preparing to pause output increases in early 2026, but has slightly raised its supply forecast for this year [1] Group 1: Oil Demand Outlook - OPEC has left its oil-demand outlook unchanged, indicating stability in expected consumption levels [1] - The decision reflects confidence in the current market dynamics and demand trends [1] Group 2: Supply Forecast - OPEC has modestly increased its forecast for oil supply for the current year, suggesting a response to market conditions [1] - This adjustment may indicate an anticipation of higher production levels to meet demand [1] Group 3: Output Policy - The organization is preparing to pause output hikes in early 2026, signaling a strategic approach to managing production levels [1] - This pause may be aimed at balancing supply and demand in the oil market [1]

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese oil industry**, specifically analyzing June supply, apparent demand, and trade data for China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Apparent Demand Growth**: Chinese apparent oil demand grew by **5% YoY** in June, returning to the top of the 5-year range, driven by strong demand for naphtha, jet fuel, and diesel [2][3][6] 2. **Crude Imports Surge**: Crude imports increased by **1.2 mb/d** in June, with significant contributions from Saudi Arabia (+52% MoM) and Iran (+88% MoM) [4][54][55] 3. **Refinery Throughput**: Refinery throughput rose sharply by **1.2 mb/d** to **15.2 mb/d**, marking a record for June runs as state-owned refiners exited seasonal maintenance [5][61][62] 4. **Refined Products Exports**: Exports of refined products increased by **260 kb/d MoM**, with gasoline exports rising due to improved margins, although overall gasoline exports were down **16% YoY** [6][70][72] 5. **Diesel Demand Recovery**: Apparent diesel demand saw a **3% YoY** increase, marking the first month of positive growth since November 2024, supported by logistics sector demand [12][16] 6. **Jet Fuel Demand Growth**: Apparent jet fuel demand rose by **170 kb/d MoM**, driven by increased international travel and supportive government policies [28][33][35] 7. **Naphtha Demand Spike**: Naphtha demand surged by **415 kb/d MoM**, attributed to the high import tax on US LPG, making naphtha a more attractive feedstock [46][49] 8. **LPG Demand Decline**: Apparent LPG demand fell by **135 kb/d MoM** due to the impact of US-China tariffs, leading to a significant disruption in the market [41][45] 9. **Crude Production Increase**: Chinese crude production increased by **80 kb/d MoM**, reflecting seasonal trends and new field startups [52][54] 10. **Inventory Levels**: Crude stocks built by **13.5 million barrels** in June, reaching record levels, driven by high imports from Iran and Saudi Arabia [159][161] Additional Important Insights 1. **Manufacturing PMI**: The Manufacturing PMI rose to **49.7** in June, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity, although it remained in contraction territory [10][13][14] 2. **Impact of NEVs**: New energy vehicles (NEVs) are displacing diesel and gasoline demand, with NEV sales reaching a **53% penetration rate** in the domestic market [20][21][16] 3. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have affected crude buying patterns and may disrupt future imports [57][60] 4. **Independent Refiners' Challenges**: Independent refiners are facing challenges due to a shortage of crude import quotas and potential sanctions on Russian oil, which could disrupt their operations [137][138] 5. **Future Outlook**: The outlook for the independent refining sector remains troubled, with potential capacity reductions due to anti-involution policies and environmental regulations [138][139] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese oil industry.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry in China Core Insights - Chinese apparent oil demand showed year-on-year growth for the first time in three months, increasing by 160 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) to 15.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in May, driven by strong demand for petrochemicals and travel fuels during the Labour Day holiday [3][6] - Crude imports fell by 720 kb/d month-on-month (MoM) and 90 kb/d year-on-year (YoY) in May, attributed to peak refinery maintenance and high inventory levels [52][61] - Refinery throughput decreased by 200 kb/d MoM, with offline capacity reaching 2.1 mb/d due to maintenance at major state-owned refiners [5][64] - Diesel demand weakened, falling by 60 kb/d MoM and 220 kb/d YoY, influenced by the penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and a struggling real estate sector [12][15] - Jet fuel demand rose by 55 kb/d MoM, supported by increased travel during the Labour Day holiday, although it was down 120 kb/d YoY [26][34] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Chinese apparent oil demand increased by 1% YoY in May, with strong naphtha demand as refiners replaced US LPG and ethane imports [3][6] - Crude imports softened further in May, with Iranian crude imports dropping by 40% MoM due to sanctions risk and high inventory levels [4][53] - Refinery throughput fell by 200 kb/d MoM, with all major state-owned refiners offline during peak maintenance [5][64] Product Exports and Imports - Refined product net exports weakened in May, with diesel exports reduced due to strong domestic margins [6][67] - Total product exports fell by 180 kb/d MoM and 220 kb/d YoY, driven by lower gasoline and fuel oil exports [68][93] - LPG imports decreased by 230 kb/d MoM due to a 125% tariff on US LPG, which was later reduced to 10% [76][41] Inventory Data - Crude stocks built rapidly in May, adding approximately 33 million barrels due to low refinery demand [156] - Observable product inventories drew by around 20 million barrels in May, with significant draws in diesel and gasoline stocks [157][161] Refining Data - Gasoline cracks averaged $14.0/bbl in May, down $2.0/bbl from April, while diesel cracks rose to $21.4/bbl [112][113] - Refinery output of diesel and gasoline declined in May, with jet fuel output increasing due to higher demand [141][147] Trade Quotas - China has released two batches of clean product export quotas for 2025, totaling 31.8 million tons, slightly lower YoY [98][100] - The allocation of quotas primarily favors state-owned companies, with Sinopec and PetroChina receiving about 72% of available quotas [98][100]