金融期货早评 宏观：关注地缘风险 【市场资讯】1）美国空袭委内瑞拉，持续一小时，特朗普称抓获马杜罗及其夫人。与马杜 罗关系密切的 CIA 线人，为美军通风报信。特朗普称将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡， 深度介入石油产业。2）外交部发言人就美国强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇答记者问。 中方呼吁美方确保马杜罗总统夫妇人身安全，立即释放马杜罗总统和夫人，停止颠覆委内 瑞拉政权，通过对话谈判解决问题。3）俄罗斯强烈敦促美国释放马杜罗。4）伊朗最高领 袖: 应与抗议者进行对话，但骚乱行径必须得到制止。特朗普威胁"干涉伊朗骚乱"，伊朗高 官回应：美国干涉伊朗内部事务将"破坏整个地区稳定"。5）商品基准指数"重置"在即，面 临抛售风险，金银开年"冲高回落"。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，12 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.1%，自 4 月以来首次重返扩张区间，大 幅超季节性预期，表现显著强于市场预期。其核心驱动为供需两端同步回暖，价格端显示 反内卷政策对价格企稳回升作用关键，建筑业 PMI 亦受天气与施工进度因素推动明显反弹。 整体来看，PMI 超预期表现源于企业政策预期与前期政策性金融工具落地，后市需关注超 长期特别国 ...

2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡略偏强20260105 | 5 | | 合成橡胶:短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 | 7 | | LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差持稳 | 9 | | PP：1月多套PDH计划检修，盘面企稳震荡 | 10 | | 烧碱：关注1月交割压力 | 11 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260105 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：短期偏强 | 15 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现 | 22 | | 丙烯：上下驱动有限，现货走势企稳 | 22 | | PVC：震荡为主 | 25 | | 燃料油：地缘冲突爆发，短期将继续上行 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：大概率出现跟涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时平稳 | 26 | ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美地缘生变，油价短线反弹，中长期依旧承压。地缘：南美地缘生变， 委内出现权力真空，短期原油出口受阻，中长期有提升预期；核心驱动： | | 原油 | | 淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上 | | | | 升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气短线走强。沙特上调明年 1 月 CP 合同价，成本端提 | | | | 振，中长期锚定成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势仍向下；供需方面， | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧 | | ★ | | 性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 节后两油石化库存显著累库。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解 ...

【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 4,132 | 0.85% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PG2603 | 4,013 | 1.01% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PL2602 | 5,795 | 0.42% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PL2603 | 5,835 | 0.73% | #N/A | #N/A | | | PL2604 | 5,888 | 0.36% | #N/A | #N/A | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2602 | 86,561 | 13711 | 59,440 | -3219 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2603 | 29,368 | 10914 | 57,585 | 2160 | | | PL2602 | 9,054 | -3882 | 4,592 | -777 | | | PL2603 | 18,178 | ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2026年1月4日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | 注：节假日部分数据未更新 | | --- | 本周LPG观点：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现 供应 成本方面，1月CP官价高开，部分提振市场情绪；国际市场供应方面，美国港口大雾天气装船延迟，叠加中东检修季，现货供应短期内维持偏 紧，但存在逐渐增量预期。 需求 民用燃烧方面，气温降低，燃烧需求回暖逐渐兑现；但供应充裕，民用表现乏力。C3方面，辽宁金发PDH装置停工，预计节后回归；滨华PDH装 置虽有短暂波动但迅速恢复，多套装置的交替变动对市场整体需求冲击有限。 观点 本周，受节假 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided, but specific investment suggestions for various products are given, such as "bullish" for PVC, "bearish" for container shipping on the European line, and "suggested to buy on dips" for some metals [1] Core Views - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks. Commodities show diverse trends, with some metals like nickel and stainless steel expected to be strong, and agricultural products and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand and price trends [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index has further risen, with increased trading volume, positive market sentiment, and liquidity. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Metals - **Copper**: Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the continuous premium of US copper have led to a further increase in copper prices. There is a short - term adjustment risk, but the upward trend is expected to remain [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, with limited industrial drivers, so the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short - term. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies on resource - constrained industries may affect the price of alumina, which has rebounded from an oversold state [1] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center moving up. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, but market sentiment is volatile, so the zinc price will fluctuate [1] - **Nickel**: Due to the expected reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 and concerns about supply, the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly, and it may remain strong in the short - term. Short - term low - buying is recommended, but over - chasing high is not advisable [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, and the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased. Steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The initiative of the non - ferrous tin industry branch to guide the price back to the normal range has pressured the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there is still a possibility of supply fermentation. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities near the support level after a short - term correction [1] - **Precious Metals**: After a sharp adjustment, precious metals may gradually stabilize and enter a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for gold in the follow - up [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: After two consecutive daily limit drops, the futures - spot divergence has improved, and the premium over the foreign market has narrowed. In the short - term, they are expected to enter a range - bound shock. In the long - term, platinum can still be bought on dips or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] Energy - Chemical Products - **Polysilicon and Silicone**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices but a low willingness to deliver, and short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - short positions in the futures - spot arbitrage can take rolling profits. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1] - **Black Metals**: The black metal market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. The current direct demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is accumulating, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the level of the fourth - round cut and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the price - cut implementation period [1] - **Palm Oil**: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the January USDA report [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recent news has led to a significant rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent weakening fundamentals. It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and waiting and seeing is recommended [1] - **Cotton**: The domestic new crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a state of "supported but without a driver" [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1] - **Corn**: The grass - roots grain sales progress of corn is fast, and the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the mid - downstream restocking demand [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial to the near - month contracts and the long - short arbitrage. The US soybean exports are weak, and the South American weather has no obvious speculation drivers [1] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures are affected by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 inverse spread [1] - **Log Fibreboard**: Affected by the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short - term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **BR Rubber**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may show a cumulative trend [1] - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device maintains a high load, the polyester pre - holiday inventory and sales have improved, and the new polyester device has been put into production, maintaining a high consumption of PTA [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production next month. After a continuous decline, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. The downstream polyester start - up rate is high, and the overall sales are high [1] - **Styrene**: The price of Asian styrene has rebounded briefly after continuous decline, mainly due to supply - side contraction. The demand for polymer downstream products is weak, but the warming of the commodity market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] - **PE**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is high, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand has weakened, the crude oil price has decreased, and the market expectation is weak in 2026 [1] - **PP**: The number of overhauls is small, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, but the high price of propylene monomers and the rising crude oil price provide strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The global production capacity will be less in 2026, and the future is expected to reach the bottom of the cycle. There will be less subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, supply pressure will increase, and demand will weaken [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong, with a price - cut pressure [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental loosening logic. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded, the northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure [1] Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December, so it is bearish [1]

2025年12月31日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20251231 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差持稳 | 8 | | PP：1月多套PDH计划检修，盘面企稳震荡 | 9 | | 烧碱：关注1月交割压力 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强20251231 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：短期偏强 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：1月CP高位出台，夜盘补涨 | 21 | | 丙烯：现货供需收紧，存止跌反弹预期 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，短期或维持强势 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时平稳 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡 | 26 | | 短纤：高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 31 日 LPG：1 月 CP 高位出台，夜盘补涨 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,195 | 0.84% | 4,208 | 0.31% | | | PG2602 | 4,097 | 1.26% | 4,181 | 2.05% | | | PL2601 | 6,010 | 2.16% | 5,940 | -1.16% | | | PL2602 | 5,771 | 0.54% | 5,817 | 0.80% | | | PL2603 | 5,793 | 0.21% | 5,830 | 0.64% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 1,634 | 709 | 1,432 | -862 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2602 | 72,850 | 14702 | 62,659 | -5230 | | | PL2601 | ...

能源化工期权 2025-12-31 能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...