Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 13, 2026 [2] - **Data Source**: Wind Financial Terminal, Steel Union Data Terminal [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the document. 2. Core View The document mainly presents the basis rate statistics of various futures on February 13, 2026, including the basis rate changes, spot prices, and futures contract prices of multiple commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, steel, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.62%, the spot price is 102,040, and the settlement price of the main contract is 102,680. The basis decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous day [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is - 1.10%, the spot price is 23,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 23,610 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.45%, the spot price is 24,480, and the settlement price of the main contract is 24,590 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is - 0.99%, the spot price is 16,575, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,740 [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.37%, the spot price is 391,650, and the settlement price of the main contract is 393,120 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 3.58%, the spot price is 140,780, and the settlement price of the main contract is 140,320 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main contract basis rate is 11.31%, the spot price is 9,300, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,290 [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.28%, the spot price is 1,126.12, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,129.74 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is - 4.63%, the spot price is 19,670, and the settlement price of the main contract is 20,626 [3]. Steel - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 5.25%, the spot price is 3,050, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,096 [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is 0.37%, the spot price is 3,218, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,237 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract basis rate is 5.94%, the spot price is 807.3, and the settlement price of the main contract is 762.0 [3]. - Coke (J): The main contract basis rate is - 3.5%, the spot price is 1,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,664.0 [3]. - Coking Coal: The main contract basis rate is 9.60%, the spot price is 1,227.5, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,120.0 [3]. - Power Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is 0.50%, the spot price is 711.0, and the settlement price of the main contract is 801.4 [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The main contract basis rate is - 4.00%, the spot price is 5,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,500 [3]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The main contract basis rate is 2.07%, the spot price is 5,800, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,842 [3]. - Stainless Steel (SS): The main contract basis rate is 1.29%, the spot price is 14,150, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,975 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 143,450, and the settlement price of the main contract is 147,340 [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.38%, the spot price is 2,223, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,231 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is - 0.14%, the spot price is 3,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,830 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.48%, the spot price is 5,195, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,220 [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract basis rate is 3.04%, the spot price is 6,850, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,648 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 2.04%, the spot price is 7,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,415 [3]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The main contract basis rate is - 0.03%, the spot price is 6,620, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,616 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 0.24%, the spot price is 6,750, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,734 [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract basis rate is - 3.40%, the spot price is 4,770, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,938 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 16,400, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,450 [3]. - 20 - Standard Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is - 0.09%, the spot price is 13,736, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,405 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is - 4.30%, the spot price is 1,112, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,162 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is - 1.79%, the spot price is 1,810, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,843 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 2.14%, the spot price is 5,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,238 [3]. - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is - 4.70%, the spot price is 454.4, and the settlement price of the main contract is 478.1 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 8.99%, the spot price is 3,148, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,888 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 3,210, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,348 [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 0.89%, the spot price is 3,379, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,355 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 11.17%, the spot price is 4,748, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,447 [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: The main contract basis rate is - 11.2%, the spot price is 4,100, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,613 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 9.68%, the spot price is 3,060, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,790 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 8.55%, the spot price is 2,263, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,303 [3]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The main contract basis rate is 5.91%, the spot price is 8,560, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,082 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): The main contract basis rate is 9.65%, the spot price is 9,920, and the settlement price of the main contract is 9,047 [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract basis rate is 15.78%, the spot price is 9,200, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,938 [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract basis rate is 1.34%, the spot price is 8,900, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,782 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 0.86%, the spot price is 2,340, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,320 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 1.48%, the spot price is 2,610, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,642 [3]. - Apple (AP): The main contract basis rate is - 1.22%, the spot price is 8,209, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,300 [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract basis rate is 14.85%, the spot price is 3,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,444 [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract basis rate is 7.02%, the spot price is 12,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 11,540 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.65%, the spot price is 14,790, and the settlement price of the main contract is 14,855 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 2.21%, the spot price is 5,370, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,254 [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 4,719.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,719.4 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is - 0.11%, the spot price is 3,079.7, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,082.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 8,423.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,448.2 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market still exist, and the fundamental factors are driving the market downward. The supply - demand of propylene is in a tight balance, and the spot price remains stable [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG (PG), on February 12, 2026, the 2603 contract had a closing price of 4,271 with a daily increase of 0.21%, and a night - session closing price of 4,310 with a night - session increase of 0.91%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 4,529 with a daily decrease of 0.70%, and a night - session closing price of 4,516 with a night - session decrease of 0.29%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 4,447 with a daily decrease of 0.56%, and a night - session closing price of 4,428 with a night - session decrease of 0.43%. For propylene (PL), the 2603 contract had a closing price of 6,278 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and a night - session closing price of 6,246 with a night - session decrease of 0.51%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,215 with a daily decrease of 0.42%, and a night - session closing price of 6,220 with a night - session increase of 0.08%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 6,225 with a daily decrease of 0.75%, and a night - session closing price of 6,228 with a night - session increase of 0.05% [3] - **Spot Market**: For LPG, the Shandong civil LPG price was 4,440, the East China imported LPG price was 5,026, the East China civil LPG price was 4,467 (down 8 from the previous day), the South China imported LPG price was 4,860 (down 5 from the previous day), the South China civil LPG price was 4,750, the Shandong ether - after LPG price was 4,460 (up 10 from the previous day), and the FEI arrival price was 5,002 (down 16 from the previous day). For propylene, the Shandong price was 6,445, the East China price was 6,430, and the South China price was 6,325 [3] - **Industrial Chain开工率**: As of February 13, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 65.57% (up 2.91% from the previous week), the alkylation operating rate was 36.85% (unchanged from the previous week), and the MTBE operating rate was 67.87% (down 0.14% from the previous week) [3] - **LPG Shipping Volume**: On February 12, 2026, from the US to the world, the shipping volume was 32.4 (up 11.9 from the previous day), to Asia was 9.1 (down 4.7 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (down 4.5 from the previous day), to Japan was 4.5 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 4.6 (up 4.6 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day). From the Middle East to the world, the shipping volume was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to Asia was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to Japan was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 6.4 (up 4.7 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (down 2.2 from the previous day) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On February 12, 2026, the March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 537 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day), and the butane price was 527 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day). The April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 522 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day) [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [9] - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, such as those of Rizhao (China Overseas), Shenchi Chemical, etc. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious view on the energy and chemical industries, with many commodities having a "cautious" or "bearish" outlook [5]. 2. Core Views - The geopolitical impact on oil prices is weakening, and prices are returning to fundamental pricing. Most energy and chemical commodities are facing various challenges such as oversupply, seasonal demand weakness, and high inventory [1][2][3]. - Some commodities like PX/PTA have a positive outlook in terms of future demand and valuation, while others like LPG, L, PP, etc., are expected to face downward pressure or remain in a weak - balanced state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical uncertainty remains high, and the supply - demand imbalance persists with oversupply and a coming demand淡季 [1]. - **Price Data**: WTI主力 at $62.84/barrel (-2.77%), Brent主力 at $67.52/barrel (-2.71%), SC主力 at 481 yuan/barrel (+1.07%) [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: IEA expects 2026 global oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (down 0.1 million from last month), and demand to grow by 0.85 million barrels per day (up from last month). US crude and product inventories are increasing [11]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand situation will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. SC is recommended to be watched in the range of [450 - 460] [12]. LPG - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. It lacks short - term drivers and follows oil price fluctuations. Cost support is weakening, and inventory is rising [1]. - **Price Data**: PG2603 at 4295 yuan/ton (+0.75%), PG2604 at 4564 yuan/ton (-0.09%), PG2605 at 4476 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [13]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply and demand are both increasing, but the inventory is bearish with rising port inventory [1]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price is expected to decline due to oversupply of upstream crude oil. In the short - term, due to oil price uncertainty, the fundamental is bearish. PG is recommended to be watched in the range of [4200 - 4300] [16]. L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. The cost of crude oil is falling, and the basis is weak. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to be cautious during the holiday [1]. - **Price Data**: L05 (主力) at 6734 yuan/ton (-0.8%) [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: Linear production is at a high level, and supply is expected to continue to increase with the restart of some devices [20]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation during the holiday, and pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand verification. L is recommended to be watched in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. There is a lack of supply - demand drivers before the holiday, and the supply pressure has eased with a certain cost support [1]. - **Price Data**: PP05 (主力) at 6648 yuan/ton (-0.7%) [22]. - **Supply - Demand**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the parking ratio is 17.5%. PDH profit is low, providing cost support [24]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation during the holiday, and pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand verification. PP is recommended to be watched in the range of [6550 - 6700] [24]. PVC - **Core View**: Range - bound. The cost support is weakening, and high inventory restricts the upside. It is expected to fluctuate before the holiday [1]. - **Price Data**: V05 (主力) at 4938 yuan/ton (-1.0%) [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: Short - term export rush continues, but high inventory is difficult to reverse [28]. - **Strategy**: Light - position operation, and PVC is recommended to be watched in the range of [4850 - 5000] [28]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish. Valuation is relatively reasonable, and the future outlook is positive despite short - term seasonal demand weakness [2]. - **Price Data**: TA05 at 5166 (at the 85.7% percentile in the past 3 months) [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is affected by device maintenance, and demand is seasonally weak with some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy**: The fundamental outlook is positive. Pay attention to capital actions, and consider buying on significant pullbacks for TA05 in the range of [5168 - 5268] [31]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Valuation is low, and the short - term demand is weak, but the situation is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - **Price Data**: EG05 at 3959 yuan/ton [32]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak with inventory accumulation in January - February [33]. - **Strategy**: The price is bottom - grinding, and long positions can be considered on dips for EG05 in the range of [3690 - 3760] [34]. Methanol - **Core View**: Short - term bearish. The de - stocking slope is slowing, and the fundamental is slightly loose [3]. - **Price Data**: Methanol主力 at a high valuation (73% in the past 3 months), comprehensive profit at - 250.9 yuan/ton [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic supply is at a high level, and overseas supply is expected to increase. Demand has stopped falling [37]. - **Strategy**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Long positions can be held for MA05 in the range of [2225 - 2255] [39]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously avoid chasing long. Valuation is not low, and the short - term demand is weakening [4]. - **Price Data**: URO5 at 1777 yuan/ton, URO9 at 1754 yuan/ton, URO1 at 1690 yuan/ton [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is under pressure with high production, and demand is entering a holiday off - season [41][42]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing long. UR05 is recommended to be watched in the range of [1790 - 1820] [43]. LNG - **Core View**: Range - bound. The impact of the cold wave is weakening, and exports are increasing [7]. - **Price Data**: NG主力 at $3.234/million British thermal units (+2.24%) [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: US export decreased in January, and the rig count increased. Japanese import decreased in 2025 [46]. - **Strategy**: The demand support is weakening as the cold wave fades. NG is recommended to be watched in the range of [2.900 - 3.400] [47]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. The demand is in the off - season, and the valuation is high [7]. - **Price Data**: BU2603 (主力) at 3327 yuan/ton (-0.92%) [48]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is decreasing in February, and inventory is increasing [50]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be aware of geopolitical risks. BU is recommended to be watched in the range of [3200 - 3300] [51]. Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation. The daily melting volume is declining, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance [7]. - **Price Data**: FG05 (主力) at 1065 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: Demand is in the off - season, and high inventory needs further supply reduction [55]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about short - selling. FG is recommended to be watched in the range of [1040 - 1090] [55]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. The enterprise inventory is increasing, and the demand support is insufficient [7]. - **Price Data**: SA05 (主力) at 1162 yuan/ton (-1.4%) [57]. - **Supply - Demand**: Floating glass demand is falling, and new production capacity is added. Supply is under pressure [59]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies before further intensification of maintenance. SA is recommended to be watched in the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple energy - chemical products are in different market trends. Some are in shock operation, some are showing price increases or decreases, and some are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: Overseas supply in Vietnam is tightening, and Thailand is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Downstream tire enterprise capacity utilization has decreased significantly, and demand is weak. Qingdao inventory is high and shows a seasonal accumulation trend [4][7][8] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: Oscillating before the festival [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions have all decreased. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [9][10] LLDPE - **Market Trend**: Northeast Asian ethylene bottoms out, and it is in a shock market due to pre - festival capital risk - aversion [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: Crude oil prices fall and stabilize, ethylene monomer is weak, downstream demand is weakening, and the supply - side inventory transfer before the Spring Festival leads to a temporary lack of fundamental contradictions [12][13] PP - **Market Trend**: C3 raw materials are strong, and valuation repair is limited [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side crude oil and propane prices are strong, supply - side new production before the 2605 contract is limited, and demand - side downstream new orders are mainly for rigid needs [15][16] Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: Stronger shock due to cost increase [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable, leading to an increase in caustic soda costs. Demand is weak, and there are expectations of production reduction and load reduction in March [20] Pulp - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][23] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading volume of imported pulp spot market decreases, and prices are stable. Downstream paper mills' raw material replenishment is basically completed, and port inventory is accumulating [26][27] Glass - **Market Trend**: The original sheet price is stable [2][28] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream's procurement volume of the original sheet decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. Market demand declines, and trading is light [29] Methanol - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][31] - **Fundamentals**: The port methanol market fluctuates narrowly, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The inland price rises slightly. The overall fundamental driving force is neutral to downward, and there is cost support at the bottom [34][35] Urea - **Market Trend**: The price center moves up [2][37] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreases slightly. Before the festival, there is support from spot transactions and strong expectations of agricultural spring plowing demand [39][40] Styrene - **Market Trend**: High - level shock [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Capital withdraws, and the absolute price is in a high - level shock. Styrene profits are at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival [42] Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market has little change [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable enterprise device operation, high - level supply, and weak downstream demand after pre - festival stocking [44] LPG - **Market Trend**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward [2][47] - **Fundamentals**: There are geopolitical disturbances, and the trading volume, position, and price of futures contracts show different changes. The operating rates of some industrial chains change [48] Propylene - **Market Trend**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the spot price is stable [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, position, and price of futures contracts change, and the operating rates of related industrial chains are stable [48] PVC - **Market Trend**: Weak shock [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: The commodity market sentiment weakens, PVC supply and demand are weak, exports decline, and inventory accumulates. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [59][60] Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Narrow - range adjustment, short - term stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][62] - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts change, and the spot prices in different regions also change [62] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Weakens at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][62] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, with changes in futures and spot prices [62] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: Shock market, hold a light position during the festival [2][64] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, spot freight rates are stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors have little impact on the European line. The 2604 contract has a weak supply - demand balance, and the 2606 contract has uncertainties in the resumption of navigation rhythm [64][73] Short - Fiber - **Market Trend**: Short - term shock market, reduce long positions when the price is high [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, spot prices are stable, downstream demand is weak, and the production - sales rate decreases [76] Bottle Chip - **Market Trend**: Short - term shock market, reduce long positions when the price is high [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, upstream raw materials fluctuate and fall, and the market trading atmosphere is light [76][77] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Trend**: Wait and see before the festival [2][79] - **Fundamentals**: Spot prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, paper enterprises' production and sales are general, and downstream demand is weak [79][80][82] Pure Benzene - **Market Trend**: Stronger shock [2][83] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline slightly, port inventory decreases slightly, and spot prices rise slightly [83][84][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue its slow - bull market. Factors such as policy support, stable market funds, and improving economic data create favorable conditions for the market. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [11][12]. - The sentiment in the bond market may turn cautious after the Spring Festival. Although the central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose, factors such as the approaching important meetings and the possible reversal of some investors' behaviors may lead to a more cautious attitude [14]. - In the agricultural and sideline products sector, different products have different trends. For example, soybean meal is expected to gradually reduce inventory, while the price of live pigs is likely to remain low. Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the price of sugar is expected to be weak [18][22][25]. - In the ferrous metals sector, steel prices may face pressure after the Spring Festival. The supply - demand structure of steel is weakening, and factors such as iron - water production, inventory accumulation, and coal mine resumption need to be monitored. The coking coal and coke market is affected by factors such as coal mine shutdowns and international coal market changes, with prices showing wide - range fluctuations. Iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening fundamentals [42][44][47]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to maintain a cautious and optimistic trend. Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term but have a long - term upward trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise if the Mozal aluminum plant's production reduction plan is implemented [52][56][58]. - In the shipping innovation sector, the container shipping market has a weakening price increase expectation in March and will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity deployment, geopolitical situations, and the implementation of price increase announcements [83]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors in the short term, with a wide - range fluctuation. LPG prices are supported by high international costs in the short term but are restricted by weak domestic supply and demand in the long term. Other chemical products such as asphalt, natural gas, and fuel oil also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [88][90][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Analysis**: Policy guidance consolidates the stable and positive trend. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the enthusiasm for A - share investment has cooled, laying the foundation for a slow - bull market. Economic data is improving, which is beneficial to the performance of listed companies. After the Spring Festival, the market is likely to perform well, especially for small - and medium - cap stocks and the ChiNext and STAR Market indices. The futures market has already reduced positions in advance, and if the market improves after the Spring Festival, the basis discount may further narrow [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider the spot - futures arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF; for options, use the bull spread strategy [13]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Analysis**: The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately loose. Although inflation indicators are recovering, the impact on the bond market is limited. The market risk appetite has stabilized, but the bond market sentiment is still affected by the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the probability of a policy interest rate cut is low, and the bond market sentiment may turn cautious after the Spring Festival [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to try to short TS contracts on rallies; for arbitrage, pay attention to the phased long - T - contract inter - delivery spread trading [15]. 3.2 Agricultural and Sideline Products 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - **Analysis**: The international soybean market is strong, but the upside space is limited. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decrease [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [20]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - **Analysis**: The supply pressure of live pigs is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The futures price mainly follows the spot price, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and arbitrage; for options, use the short strangle strategy [23]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Analysis**: The US corn production is stable, and the import profit is high. After the Spring Festival, the supply of corn in Northeast China will increase, and the price may decline slightly. The starch price is expected to be relatively strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents/bu and short 03 corn on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, use the bear put spread strategy for 03 corn [26]. 3.2.4 Peanuts - **Analysis**: The peanut price is stable before the Spring Festival, and the 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take a short - long position on dips for the 05 contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, try to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [28]. 3.2.5 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak, and the domestic sugar price is likely to follow the weak trend [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, use the high - short and low - cover strategy for the domestic Zhengzhou sugar 5 - month contract; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell call options [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton - **Analysis**: The cotton price is supported, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [32]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Analysis**: The egg demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to short the 6 - month contract on rallies [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short the 6 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [34]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Analysis**: The apple inventory is low, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high. The price of the 5 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and short the 10 - month contract on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on the 5 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract; for options, wait and see [36]. 3.2.9 Oils and Fats - **Analysis**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is at a high level, but the total inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia is not loose. The US biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the supply is generally sufficient. The policy of Canadian rapeseed is uncertain, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slightly decreasing [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct P59 and Y59 reverse arbitrage; for options, wait and see [38]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Analysis**: After the Spring Festival, steel mills may resume production, and the steel supply will increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply - demand structure is weakening, and the steel price may face pressure. However, the steel price valuation is low, and the decline is limited [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is expected to be weak and oscillating; for arbitrage, short the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread and the rebar - coking coal ratio on rallies; for options, wait and see [43]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Analysis**: Coal mines are on holiday during the Spring Festival, and the supply is reduced. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the Mongolian coal port is limited. The domestic coal market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The coking coal valuation is not high, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct band trading; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Analysis**: The iron ore supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [48]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Analysis**: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are relatively stable, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, take partial profit on long positions before the long holiday and go long on dips after the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options [50]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Analysis**: The gold and silver market has stabilized and recovered after the adjustment. The trading mainline is expected to return to factors such as great - power games and the US interest - rate cycle. It is recommended to control risks during the holiday [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conservative investors can exit long positions on rallies, and aggressive investors can hold long positions based on the 20 - day moving average with a light position. It is recommended to hold an empty position for silver; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, switch futures long positions to buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and use the bull call spread strategy for silver [53]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Analysis**: The non - farm payroll data is contradictory, and the asset volatility is high. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium is in a supply - surplus pattern. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, be cautiously bullish and buy on dips; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, wait and see [55]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Analysis**: The copper price has fluctuated sharply recently. After the adjustment, the fundamentals are healthier, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to control positions during the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is in a high - level consolidation, and it is recommended to control positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [57]. 3.4.4 Aluminum - **Analysis**: The macro - economic expectations are volatile. If the Mozal aluminum plant reduces production as planned, the aluminum price will be strong; otherwise, the upward momentum will be weakened. The domestic inventory is accumulating, which suppresses the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 24,200 yuan. In the long term, if the production - reduction plan is implemented, be bullish on dips; pay attention to the implementation of the production - reduction plan [59]. 3.4.5 Alumina - **Analysis**: The alumina supply is uncertain during the holiday. If the production reduction continues, the futures price may fluctuate; otherwise, it will be under pressure [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the main contract is expected to oscillate between 2,780 - 2,880 yuan. It is recommended to be cautious. If there are expectations for policies, buy a small number of call options. In the long term, be bearish on rallies in the surplus pattern; if the supply - demand situation improves, the price may rebound [61]. 3.4.6 Zinc - **Analysis**: The zinc concentrate supply shortage is expected to ease. The refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The downstream demand is affected by the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control positions and hedge inventory [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions and hold a light position during the holiday; for arbitrage, buy LME and sell SHFE; for options, buy one - times out - of - the - money put options and two - times out - of - the - money call options [63]. 3.4.7 Lead - **Analysis**: The lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and the production of primary lead is profitable, but the production increase is limited. The production of recycled lead is affected by losses and holidays. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and control positions [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [66]. 3.4.8 Nickel - **Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations drive the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous metal sector. The nickel supply is expected to be in surplus without quota restrictions, but there may be a shortage if the quota is limited. The nickel price is supported by cost and strategic demand. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the NI2604 contract with an exercise price of 134,000 [68]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel cost is rising, and the inventory is increasing. The price is affected by nickel and the macro - economic environment. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see [70]. 3.4.10 Polysilicon - **Analysis**: The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a state of disorderly fluctuation before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, if the price drops to the previous low, it can be considered to go long or buy call options [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see and look for a good safety margin; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, buy call options when appropriate [72]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Analysis**: The industrial - silicon production is reducing, and the basis is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,100 yuan. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the price to stabilize; for arbitrage, there is no opportunity; for options, there is no opportunity [73]. 3.4.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Analysis**: The lithium - carbonate demand is improving, and the supply will increase in March, resulting in inventory accumulation. However, the market tolerance for inventory is high, and the industry trend is positive. It is recommended to hold a light long position during the holiday [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold a light long position based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the put option of the lc2605 contract with an exercise price of 140,000 [75]. 3.4.13 Tin - **Analysis**: The tin price is relatively resilient. The tin - ore import is stable, and the production is expected to change slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is recovering marginally. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, control positions before the holiday; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, wait and see [79]. 3.5 Shipping Innovation 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Analysis**: The price increase expectation in March is weakening, and the market will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival. The freight rate is under pressure, and the supply and demand are affected by factors such as shipping capacity deployment and geopolitical situations [83]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see before the holiday; for arbitrage, conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage rolling operations [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term pre - holiday stock index is expected to be in a strong sideways trend, accumulating strength for further upward movement. Long - term long positions in stock index futures should be held [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - Copper prices may be in a sideways and slightly upward trend; aluminum prices are likely to maintain a sideways movement; there are low - buying opportunities for alumina; zinc prices are expected to move sideways, and it is advisable to wait and see; nickel prices are in a strong sideways trend in the short - term, and long - term high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. Stainless steel futures are in a strong movement, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - Precious metal prices are expected to stabilize and move in a sideways range in the short - term. Platinum and palladium are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1] - For industrial silicon, the northwest is increasing production while the southwest is reducing it. For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see. For lithium carbonate, there is a need for a correction [1] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is not recommended to hold unilateral speculative positions during the holiday. For iron ore, it is not advisable to chase long at the current position. For black metals like manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. For soda ash, the price is under pressure in the medium - term. For coking coal and coke, it is advisable to seize the opportunity of the price increase on the futures market to cash out the physical goods or establish a cash - and - carry arbitrage position [1] - For palm oil, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For soybean oil, it is expected to move sideways in the short - term. For rapeseed oil, the subsequent supply contradiction is expected to ease. For cotton, the market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force". For sugar, the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. For corn, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound movement. For soybeans, it is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of M2609 [1] - For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see. For logs, the futures price has an upward driving force [1] - For fuel oil and asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and they follow crude oil. For rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber, the short - term is in a wide - range fluctuation, and BR rubber has an upward expectation in the long - term. For PTA and short - fiber, the downstream PTA industry is strong. For ethylene and glycol, the ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units, and the glycol price is waiting at a low level. For pure benzene, the import demand is weak. For styrene, the spot price is supported. For water hyacinth, the upside space is limited. For methanol, it is a situation of long - short entanglement. For PP, the supply pressure is relatively large. For PVC, the future expectation is relatively optimistic. For LPG, the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] - For the container shipping European line, the pre - holiday freight rate has peaked and declined. The airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights and are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures: Short - term pre - holiday is expected to be in a strong sideways trend, and long - term long positions should be held [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has warned about interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Pre - holiday downstream demand is weak, but copper prices may be in a sideways and slightly upward trend as market sentiment improves [1] - Aluminum: Industrial driving force is limited, and pre - holiday market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. Aluminum prices may maintain a sideways movement [1] - Alumina: Domestic operating capacity has decreased, and there are disruptions in the supply of a large - scale alumina enterprise in North China. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and market sentiment has stabilized. Zinc prices are expected to move sideways, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Nickel: The US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and market sentiment fluctuated. Indonesia's nickel ore quota policies have increased concerns about future supply. Short - term nickel prices are in a strong sideways trend, and there are high - inventory pressures in the long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - Stainless steel: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and macro sentiment is fluctuating. Stainless steel futures are in a strong movement. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - Tin: The short - term market sentiment has stabilized, but the price fluctuation is still large. In the short - term high - volatility situation, investors should pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals: The US non - farm payrolls in January were strong, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed. Due to high geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, precious metal prices are expected to stabilize and move in a sideways range in the short - term [1] - Platinum and palladium: The US non - farm payrolls in January were strong, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing the upward trend. However, fundamentals and key minerals support the prices, so they are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [1] - Industrial silicon: The northwest is increasing production, while the southwest is reducing it. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] - Polysilicon: It is recommended to wait and see [1] - Lithium carbonate: It is the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price has increased significantly and needs a correction [1] Black metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Spot trading is close to suspension, and futures prices are moving sideways. It is not recommended to hold unilateral speculative positions during the holiday. It is advisable to participate in the market by going long on the basis [1] - Iron ore: There is sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure. It is not advisable to chase long at the current position [1] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: It is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Energy consumption dual - control and anti - involution may have an impact on supply [1] - Soda ash: It follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: It is the off - season for black metals, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment is almost over. The futures market is more affected by capital sentiment. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of price increase on the futures market to cash out the physical goods or establish a cash - and - carry arbitrage position [1] - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: The MPOB monthly report data has a bullish expectation difference, but the subsequent fundamentals still have pressure, which has little impact on the futures market. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1] - Soybean oil: Supported by the strong movement of US soybeans, the South American weather is normal, and it is difficult to have weather - related speculation. More attention should be paid to the Sino - US soybean trade situation [1] - Rapeseed oil: The anti - dumping final ruling result of Canadian rapeseed has been released. After March, the tariff is expected to be adjusted to about 15%. Some oil mills have started purchasing, and the subsequent supply contradiction is expected to ease [1] - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for inventory replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force" [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force, and attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] - Corn: Affected by the import restriction news, the futures market is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on - the - ground grain in the production area. The overall market is expected to maintain a range - bound movement [1] - Soybeans: The expected increase in US soybean exports has boosted the US futures market, but the decline in Brazilian basis has partially offset the impact. The domestic futures market is weaker than the overseas market. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of M2609 [1] Others - Pulp: There are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side has weakened after inventory replenishment. It is advisable to wait and see when the commodity market sentiment fluctuates greatly [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has increased, the arrival volume in February has decreased, and the overseas quotation is expected to rise, so the futures price has an upward driving force [1] Energy and chemical industry - Fuel oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the commodity market sentiment has cooled. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The 14th Five - Year Plan rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] - Natural rubber: The raw material cost has strong support, the commodity market sentiment fluctuates, the pre - holiday downstream demand has weakened, and the futures - spot price difference has expanded to the same - period high [1] - BR rubber: The cost - end butadiene has strong bottom support, the profit of private butadiene rubber plants is still in a loss, the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, the butadiene inventory is decreasing, and the high inventory of butadiene rubber is a potential negative factor. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1] - PTA: The PX - mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction, and the downstream PTA industry is strong. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no production - reduction plan for the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1] - Ethylene and glycol: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined, several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of cracking units in February, and the glycol price is waiting at a low level [1] - Pure benzene: The inventory is high, and the import demand is weak. The US - Asia price difference is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene price and economic situation are recovering, supported by supply tightening, unexpected Middle East shutdowns, surging export demand, and rising cost - end prices [1] - Water hyacinth: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited. There is support from anti - involution and the cost end [1] - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. It is a situation of long - short entanglement [1] - PP: The supply pressure is relatively large due to high operating load, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the price has returned to a reasonable range, and crude oil is in a slightly upward trend [1] - PVC: The global production capacity put into operation in 2026 is small, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the elimination of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1] - LPG: The February CP price has risen, and the March purchase is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, the short - term risk premium has declined, and the overseas cold - wave driving logic has gradually slowed down. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the demand side is short - term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping European line: The pre - holiday freight rate has peaked and declined. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights and are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., suggesting investors to pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances and market uncertainties [2][9][10]. - Different commodities show different trends, such as some being in a range - bound market, some having upward or downward pressure, and some being affected by factors like supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: A pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The cost end is worried about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations, and the valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals are weak in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs strongly. Investors should manage positions [9]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short positions can be taken when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations, and the polyester start - up rate is expected to change. Multiple sets of device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Investors should pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support level and manage positions [10]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The basis and monthly spread are in a reverse - set operation. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but the demand side has large - scale shutdowns, resulting in large inventory accumulation pressure in February and difficult inventory digestion after the festival. Investors should manage positions [10]. Rubber - It is in a shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased. The order situation of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises shows different trends [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a pre - holiday shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased, and the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased [14][15]. LLDPE - The internal and external markets are close to a standstill, and the funds are risk - averse, showing a shock market. The raw material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the downstream demand has different situations. The supply - side maintenance plan has decreased, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [17][18]. PP - The C3 raw material performs strongly, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost end of crude oil and propane prices continues to be strong, and the demand side has limited support. The PDH profit is at a low level, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [20][21]. Caustic Soda - The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit may be challenged. The demand side is weak, and the supply - side reduction and load - reduction expectations are increasing after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [25]. Pulp - It is in a shock operation. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing before the festival, with few spot quotations and stagnant downstream procurement. The supply - demand fundamentals have no actual changes during the holiday, and the price is expected to end stably. Attention should be paid to the changes in port inventory and the impact of the macro - market on the pulp market [31][32]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market demand declines, and the overall trading is light [35][36]. Methanol - It is in a shock operation. The spot price shows a regional adjustment situation, and the port inventory has a small increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a limited range. The macro - level is in the process of negotiation between Iran and the United States, and the fundamental driving force is neutral to downward. The upper and lower price limits are affected by factors such as MTO profit and coal - based cost [41][42]. Urea - It is in a pre - holiday shock with support. The support comes from the improvement of spot transactions driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the festival. The fundamental pressure level of the 05 contract is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [45][46]. Styrene - It is in a high - level shock. The absolute price is in a high - level shock with the withdrawal of funds. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival and the opportunity of EB profit contraction and PX - EB [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable device operation and high supply. The downstream demand procurement is basically completed before the holiday, and the trading is light. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [50]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes. The industrial chain start - up rate and shipping volume have different trends [52]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the basis converges. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes [52]. PVC - It is in a weakly shock operation. The domestic spot market trading is dull, and the supply - demand is weak. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to be weakly shocked before the festival. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may still trade delivery pressure and high forward premium [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen, and it may turn to a relatively strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market is still at a low level [64]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a shock market. The futures market has price and position changes. The spot market freight rate is stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors and shipping company policies have an impact on the market. Different contracts have different investment strategies [66][74][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The futures price fluctuates upward, the spot price is stable, and the downstream is mostly on holiday [77][78]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate upward, and the factory price is partially adjusted upward. The market trading atmosphere is average [77][78]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The spot market price is stable, the scale paper mills are stably producing, some small and medium - sized paper mills are shut down, and the dealer's order - receiving situation is not good [80][81]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strong shock. The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices and the price trend [84][85].

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反反复复，油价短期震荡偏强。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，下周美伊 | | 原油 | 震荡调整 | 将继续谈判，地缘不确定性较大，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩 | | ★ | | 格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩 | | | | 油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹偏强，短期带动气价回升。成本端油价短 | | LPG | | 期受地缘扰动震荡盘整，但地缘溢价下降，后续支撑下降；供需方面，液 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率连续下降，降至 70%以下，化工需求 | | | | 支撑降低；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 上中游库存窄幅波动，装置回归，基差延续偏弱震荡，假期临近，谨慎操 | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 作，关注节后需求验证情况。线性产量维持同期高位，本周中英石化等装 | | | | 置计划重启，预计供给延续增加趋势，基本面偏空。 | | | | 成本端丙烷、丙烯延续 ...

2026 年 2 月 12 日 品 研 究 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：现货持稳，基差收敛 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货研究 商 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,262 | 0.26% | 4,295 | 0.77% | | 2603 | 41,631 | -20,093 | 25,613 | -3,707 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,561 | 0.02% | 4,570 | 0.20% | PG | 2604 | 31,075 | -1,9 ...

(1)甲醇整体受到伊朗局势的影响预期未来进口减量但下游负反 馈明显,多空交织(2) 下游MTO龙头装置停车且部分企业降负荷 生产,但1.25富德重启。 3)伊朗局势有所缓和,但不能完全排 除风险。(4)内地受冷空气影响运费上涨,西北企业排库压力较 大降价出货。 (1) 原油震荡偏强。 (2) 价格回归合理区间。(3) 节前补库结 束,假期来临,需求平淡。 (1) 检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2) 下游改善 不及预期。(3)价格回归合理区间。(4)原油震荡偏暖。g8 (1) 2026年全球投产较少,西北地区差别电价有望实行. 倒逼 PVC产能出清,未来预期偏乐观。(2)基本面较差。(3)抢出[ PVC 阶段性放缓。 (1) 宏观情绪暂时消退 盘面重新交易基本面。(2)基本面偏 弱,绝对价格低位。(3)液氯走弱,现货价格小幅上涨。1 (1) 2月CP价格上行,3月买货仍相对紧张。(2)中东地缘冲突 短期风险溢价回落。 (3) 海外寒潮驱动逻辑逐步放缓 面预期走弱,预计基差逐步走扩。(4)国内PDH开工率下滑、 润预计李节性修复,LPG需求端短期偏空,压制盘面上行。 港口持续去库,但内地民用气较为充足, ...