Emily Flippen: Oil remains cheap, but politics are increasingly loud. We're breaking down the energy-related headlines investors may have missed and what 2026 can look like from here today on Motley Fool Money. Today is Tuesday, December 30th. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I'm your host, Emily Flippen, and today I'm joined by full analysts Jason Hall and Keith Speights to dig into the latest energy headlines, including the oversupply of oil, a pause, and offshore wind energy projects, and how energy investo ...

Nymex, ICE Europe Oil steadied as traders weighed geopolitical tensions from Venezuela to Russia and Yemen against concerns about a global glut. West Texas Intermediate swung near $58 a barrel in quiet holiday trading. The United Arab Emirates said it will withdraw forces from Yemen following a flare up in tensions with oil-rich ally Saudi Arabia over military operations in the conflict-hit country. At the same time, President Donald Trump’s push to end the war in Ukraine faces fresh obstacles after Russ ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing support due to escalating geopolitical tensions, despite a looming oversupply in the market, with Brent futures trading above $62 a barrel, marking a 6% increase from recent lows [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global oil benchmark is on track for its largest annual decline since 2020, with major oil traders anticipating a supply glut in the coming year due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ members [2]. - Concerns regarding potential disruptions in supply, particularly from OPEC+ members like Russia and Venezuela, are providing some price support [2][6]. - The US is actively pursuing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, with several tankers having already departed, indicating ongoing efforts to limit oil revenues for the Maduro regime [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory Trends - Russian crude oil volumes at sea have surged by 48% since the end of August, raising concerns among shippers and buyers about potential US actions targeting their shipments [4]. - In the US, crude oil stockpiles rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, alongside increases in gasoline and distillate inventories, indicating a growing supply situation [5]. - Official inventory data is delayed due to a federal holiday, which may impact market reactions [5]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that geopolitical premiums have not yet been fully accounted for, with various tensions from Venezuela to Russia influencing market sentiment [6]. - Despite the current price support, analysts warn that the anticipated supply glut could limit further price increases in the near future [6].

We still have ten days in 2025, but I am highly confident that the Energy Sector ( XLE ) will finish this year among the three worst-performing sectors out ofComing from an IT background, I have dived into the U.S. stock market seven years ago by managing portfolio of my family. Starting managing real money has been challenging for the first time, but long hours of mastering fundamental analysis of public companies paid off and now I feel very confident in my investment decisions. My hands-on experience sha ...

Group 1 - Progress in talks to end the war in Ukraine has fueled optimism among traders [1] - A potential deal could lead to the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [1]

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Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is likely to continue increasing production next year despite expectations of oversupply in the crude market, as a significant portion of traders believe the group will maintain its output ramp-up [1][2]. Group 1: Production Trends - OPEC+ has been increasing production after two years of cuts due to depressed international oil prices, rising non-OPEC supply, and weak demand predictions [2]. - The group agreed to pause output additions in early 2026, indicating an acknowledgment of the oversupply situation [2]. - Next month, OPEC+ plans to add a modest 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its combined output [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecasts - The latest monthly oil market report from OPEC+ indicates that non-OPEC supply growth is expected to reach 1.3 million bpd next year, while global demand is projected to grow by 1.6 million bpd, totaling 106.2 million bpd by the end of the year [3]. - The revision of supply and demand expectations suggests that supply is outpacing earlier demand assumptions, with the International Energy Agency also reporting slower consumption growth [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Traders believe that a reversal in OPEC+ policy to implement cuts would only occur if there is a visible collapse in demand, prices fall below $50, and a clear need for market management arises [4]. - Currently, there are no signs of such a trend, and lower prices may actually stimulate more demand, consistent with cyclical industry behavior [5].

Core Insights - Global crude oil markets are experiencing an oversupply, particularly evident in the Americas, especially the US [1] - The futures curve for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate indicates weaker demand for immediate barrels, with a contango structure expected for most of 2026 [1] - High export volumes in the US, with October crude exports reaching the highest level since July 2024, further indicate healthy supply [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global marker Brent's futures curve is largely flat post-March, reflecting a lackluster demand for prompt barrels [2] - The Brent-Dubai EFS has turned negative, suggesting Brent is trading at a discount against the Middle Eastern benchmark, indicating weakness in North Sea markets [3] Future Market Expectations - Market analysts anticipate a global oil glut in the coming year, with OPEC revising its outlook from a deficit to a surplus due to increased US production [4] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a record surplus in 2026, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [4] - Analysts predict a slight surplus in the current quarter and into the next, with expectations of continued contango in the forward curve, though not a deep contango [5]

Core Insights - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence before making any financial decisions [1] Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content for educational and research purposes [1] - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as investment advice or recommendations [1] - Users are encouraged to consult their own advisors and consider their financial situations before making decisions [1] Group 2 - The website includes information on complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs) [1] - It highlights the high risk associated with these instruments and the potential for significant financial loss [1] - Users are advised to fully understand the workings and risks of any financial instruments before investing [1]