Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to investments in cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website discusses the complexities and high risks associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, highlighting the potential for significant financial loss [1]. - It encourages users to conduct their own research and fully understand the instruments and risks involved before making investment decisions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to investments in cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and opinions, as well as materials from third parties for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for any financial actions, including investments or purchases [1]. - The content is not tailored to individual financial situations or needs, highlighting the necessity for users to exercise their own discretion [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and CFDs, which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - Users are encouraged to conduct their own research and fully understand the workings and risks of any financial instruments before investing [1]. - The website may feature advertisements and promotional content, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties related to such content [1].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to investments in cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website discusses the complexities and high risks associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, highlighting the potential for significant financial loss [1]. - It encourages users to conduct their own research and fully understand the instruments and risks involved before making investment decisions [1].

Summary of the Oil Market Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the outlook for oil prices and supply dynamics for 2026 and beyond, as analyzed by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends and Forecasts - Oil prices declined by 14% year-over-year in 2025, averaging $68 per barrel due to strong supply despite geopolitical tensions [7][9] - Forecasts for 2026 average prices are $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, with a projected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) [7][23] - Prices are expected to bottom at $54 for Brent and $50 for WTI in Q4 2026 as inventory builds increase [39] - A price recovery is anticipated starting in 2027, with revised forecasts of $58 for Brent and $54 for WTI due to slowing non-OPEC supply growth and solid demand [43][50] Supply Dynamics - The report predicts a combined production decline from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran of 0.7 mb/d by December 2027, with oil on water decreasing by 33 million barrels [4][72] - US liquids supply reached a record high, increasing by 0.8 mb/d year-over-year in October [34] - The report highlights that OPEC's production increases in 2025 were strategic to support market stability later in the decade [28] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain significant, with potential supply disruptions from sanctioned countries like Iran and Russia likely to cause price spikes [52][65] - However, US policymakers' focus on maintaining strong energy supply is expected to limit sustained price increases [65] Recommendations - Investors are advised to short the 2026Q3-Dec2028 Brent timespread to capitalize on the anticipated surplus [78] - Oil producers are recommended to hedge against potential price declines in 2026, as the market may be underpricing inventory builds [79] Long-Term Outlook - The long-term outlook remains constructive, with expectations of a price recovery later in the decade driven by ongoing demand growth and necessary investments in long-cycle production [50][75] - The report notes that technological advancements may lead to continued production beats, potentially keeping prices lower than previously forecasted [71][75] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of OECD commercial stocks in influencing price dynamics, as they tend to be more significant than inventory trends elsewhere [39] - The analysis includes various price risk scenarios based on changes in sanctioned supply and global economic conditions, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting future oil prices [68][69] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the oil market outlook as presented by Goldman Sachs.

4 January 2026 | 2:24PM EST Commodities Research Oil Comment: Price Risks From Venezuela: Ambiguous in Short-Run But Negative in Long-Run Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Price Risks From Venezuela: Ambiguous in Short-Run But Negative in Long-Run 1 PDVSA reportedly aimed to reduce Orinoco Belt pro ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the outlook for 2026 and the dynamics affecting Brent crude prices and supply-demand balance. Core Insights and Arguments - A surplus of approximately **1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d)** is expected in 2026, which is lower than other estimates (IEA: 3.8 mb/d, Argus: 3.6 mb/d) but still significant, comparable to the excess during the 2008/09 financial crisis [9][18] - The surplus is anticipated to peak in **mid-2026** and gradually decline by late 2027 as demand growth erodes the excess supply [9][60] - Brent prices are forecasted to trend lower, reaching the mid-**$50s** by mid-2026, with specific quarterly forecasts indicating **$57.5** in Q1 2026 and **$55.0** in Q2 2026 [5][17] - The oil market is expected to experience a **contango** structure, where future prices are higher than current prices, due to rising inventories [9][15] Supply Dynamics - Non-OPEC supply growth was robust in 2025, with an increase of **1.2 mb/d** compared to 2024, leading to a total non-OPEC oil liquids supply growth of **1.8 mb/d** [33][34] - OPEC production is projected to remain stable at around **29.8 mb/d** in 2026, with limited growth potential due to eroded spare capacity [50][53][66] - The report highlights that geopolitical risks have historically not led to significant production losses, suggesting that the current supply dynamics are primarily driven by market fundamentals rather than geopolitical events [15][86] Demand Insights - Global oil demand growth is estimated at **1.05 mb/d** for 2025, slightly below the long-term trend, with expectations for **0.9 mb/d** growth in 2026 [22][27] - The divergence between total oil liquids and crude oil demand is noted, with a shift towards more LPG and ethane consumption, impacting refinery throughput [28][27] Inventory and Pricing Locations - Significant inventory builds have occurred, with approximately **424 million barrels** identified since January 2025, including **82 million barrels** in China [20][22] - Key pricing locations have seen limited inventory increases, with commercial OECD stocks rising only **65 million barrels** during the same period [73][78] - The expectation is that inventories in key pricing locations will eventually reflect the surplus, despite current geographical disparities in inventory builds [68][70] OPEC's Strategic Focus - OPEC's primary focus in 2026 will be to establish a new framework for cooperation in 2027 and beyond, rather than aggressively cutting production [80][81] - The report suggests that OPEC may prioritize long-term agreements over immediate production cuts, which could lead to a more stable market environment in 2027 [85] Conclusion - The oil market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2026, with Brent prices likely to decline due to rising inventories and stable supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources. The geopolitical landscape, while uncertain, is not expected to significantly disrupt supply flows, and OPEC's strategic focus will shift towards long-term cooperation rather than short-term production cuts.

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the oil and gas industry, specifically the dynamics between Oil Services, Big Oil, and Exploration & Production (E&Ps) sectors - The preferred sector strategy is Oil Services > Big Oil > E&Ps, indicating a bullish outlook on Oil Services due to expected revenue growth and margin expansion [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - **Brent Oil Price Forecast**: A forecast of $60 per barrel for Brent oil in 2026 is expected to create significant pressure on free cash flow (FCF) across sectors, with E&Ps facing the most strain, followed by Big Oils and then Oil Services [1][2] - **Revenue Growth**: European Oilfield Services (OFS) are projected to see a 5% year-over-year revenue growth in 2026, while Big Oils are expected to experience nearly flat production growth [1][9] - **Earnings Estimates**: The average year-over-year EBITDA growth is estimated at +5% for OFS, -4% for Big Oil, and -10% for E&Ps under the $60/bbl Brent forecast [2][9] - **Capex Trends**: Industry capital expenditures (capex) are expected to flatline, further squeezing FCF and impacting cash returns to shareholders, with Big Oil buybacks projected to decrease by nearly 25% year-over-year [2][9] Company-Specific Insights - **TotalEnergies (TTE)**: Identified as a top pick due to its resilience and undervaluation, with a breakeven oil price expected to decline through organic growth in oil and gas volumes [3][4] - **Galp**: Noted for its significant production growth, projected at over 10% in 2026, which stands out among European Big Oils [4][36] - **Saipem**: Expected to benefit from margin expansion and a strong order book, with a projected 20% year-over-year EBITDA growth in 2026 [26][28] Additional Important Insights - **E&P Sector Vulnerability**: The E&P sector is facing significant challenges, with many companies carrying high debt levels and cash flow break-evens above the $60/bbl forecast, leading to limited defensive options [24][46] - **Dividend Yields**: Some E&Ps are offering double-digit dividend yields as a form of protection against market volatility, with Ithaca Energy highlighted for its strong balance sheet and low break-even price of $45/bbl [45][46] - **Balance Sheet Pressure**: The overall balance sheet strength of Big Oils is under scrutiny, with increasing net debt levels despite asset disposals, indicating a need for more inorganic growth cushions [23][24] Conclusion - The oil and gas industry is navigating a challenging environment with a $60/bbl Brent oil price forecast, impacting cash flows and shareholder returns across sectors. Oil Services are positioned to perform better than Big Oil and E&Ps, with specific companies like TotalEnergies and Galp standing out for their growth potential and resilience.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically oil prices and production forecasts through 2035, with insights from Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research [1][3][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Forecasts**: Brent and WTI oil prices are expected to decline to $56 and $52 respectively in 2026, but are projected to recover to $80 and $76 by late 2028 [3][19]. - **Supply Surplus**: A surplus of 2.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) is forecasted for 2026, supported by recent large inventory builds [6][19]. - **Key Risks**: Russian oil production is identified as a significant risk factor affecting price forecasts for 2026-2027 [9][19]. - **Demand Trends**: Oil demand is anticipated to rise through 2040, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for the industry [13][19]. - **Capital Expenditure (Capex)**: There is a need for oil prices to rise later in the decade to stimulate capital expenditure, as non-OPEC supply growth, excluding Russia, is expected to slow [19][21]. Additional Important Information - **OECD Stock Builds**: In a lower production scenario for Russia, a reduced OECD share in global stock builds is assumed for the period from Q4 2025 to 2027 [11][19]. - **Non-OPEC Production Growth**: The report outlines projections for non-OPEC oil production growth, highlighting contributions from the US, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana [20][19]. - **Equity Analysts' Assumptions**: Equity analysts at Goldman Sachs assume an $80 Brent oil price from 2025 onwards, which aligns with the broader market expectations [21][19]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and forecasts regarding the oil industry as presented in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of expected trends and risks.

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided may not be real-time or accurate, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] - The article warns that trading decisions should be made at the individual's full responsibility, and reliance on the information provided is discouraged [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages individuals to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The content does not constitute any recommendation or advice for taking specific actions, including investments [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the oil industry, specifically the impact of new US sanctions on Russian oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which are the largest in Russia [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oil Price Reaction**: Brent and WTI oil prices increased by 5% to $66 and $62 respectively following the announcement of sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for 45% of Russia's oil exports [1][4][8]. 2. **Export Volumes**: Rosneft and Lukoil have exported approximately 3.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-to-date, with crude oil making up 2.2 mb/d of this total [1][8][9]. 3. **Supply-Demand Balance**: The company maintains its supply-demand balance and oil price forecast, projecting Brent/WTI prices to decline to averages of $56/52 by 2026. This forecast assumes a reduction in Russian liquids production by 0.6 mb/d by 2026 compared to 2024 levels [1][12][15]. 4. **Potential Upside Risks**: The sanctions could lead to additional upside risks to oil prices, particularly if Russian supply decreases significantly. In scenarios where Russian supply falls by 1.5 mb/d, Brent prices could peak at nearly $85 before averaging $73 in 2026 [1][27][30]. 5. **Factors Mitigating Impact**: The potential impact of sanctions on global oil imports may be limited due to: - Possible exemptions for importers [15][17]. - Continued purchases of discounted Russian oil [15][17]. - Reorganization of trade networks following previous sanctions [15][18]. - Increased production from OPEC to stabilize the market [15][18]. 6. **Temporary Nature of Reductions**: The reduction in Russian oil purchases may be temporary if peace negotiations progress or if energy affordability becomes a higher priority for Western policymakers [1][22][24]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Pricing Adjustments**: The crude market has adjusted to reflect a nearly 60 percentage point increase in the likelihood of a significant disruption in Russian oil supply [2][34]. 2. **Production Estimates**: Rosneft and Lukoil's total liquids production is estimated at approximately 4.6 mb/d year-to-date, indicating a significant portion of their output is still operational despite sanctions [11][12]. 3. **Regional Production Distribution**: About 70% of the combined crude volumes from Rosneft and Lukoil are produced in regions with both domestic and export outlets, which may help mitigate the impact of sanctions [36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of US sanctions on Russian oil producers and the broader oil market dynamics.