Oil edged lower as traders focused on cooling tensions in the Middle East and broader markets struck a more cautious tone. West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 1.9% to trade below $62 a barrel while Brent was near $65. Israel and Hamas reached a deal for a truce and the release of hostages held by the militant group, a major step toward ending a two-year war that’s loomed over flows from the Middle East, the source of a third of the world’s crude. Most Read from Bloomberg “Sentiment remains subdued, ...

November WTI crude oil (CLX25) on Monday closed up +0.81 (+1.33%), and November RBOB gasoline (RBX25) closed up +0.0411 (+2.21%). Crude oil and gasoline prices moved higher on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-expected increase in its crude production levels.  Also, reduced Russian crude production is supporting oil prices after Reuters reported that Russia's Kirishi oil refinery halted most of its production following a drone attack by Ukraine.  Gains in crude were limited on Monday after the d ...

November WTI crude oil (CLX25) today is up +0.80 (+1.31%), and November RBOB gasoline (RBX25) is up +0.0400 (+2.15%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising today after OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-expected increase in its crude production levels.  Also, reduced Russian crude production is supporting oil prices after Reuters reported that Russia's Kirishi oil refinery halted most of its production following a drone attack by Ukraine.  Gains in crude are limited after the dollar index (DXY00) rallied t ...

Even though oil prices have climbed more than 1% on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to only a modest increase in production for November, the underlying market surplus is likely to subdue any upside momentu... ...

Oil slipped in a choppy day of trading as OPEC+ considers boosting the pace of future output hikes. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.7% to settle near $62 a barrel. The OPEC+ alliance meets on Sunday and is considering stepping up supply increases. The group will discuss potentially lifting output by 500,000 barrels a day per month over a three-month period, a delegate said. Most Read from Bloomberg OPEC+ would be adding barrels to a market that major forecasters say doesn’t need them. The International ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil market**, focusing on supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and inventory levels. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Price Forecast**: Post-summer surplus is expected to drive Brent crude prices down to approximately **$60/bbl**, but not significantly lower than that [7][10][31]. 2. **Oil Inventories**: Observable oil inventories increased by around **235 million barrels** from February to June, indicating a substantial oversupply of approximately **1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d)**. However, this surplus has been unevenly distributed, with non-OECD stocks absorbing most of it [10][12][26]. 3. **Demand Growth**: Total oil liquids demand is projected to grow by about **0.8 mb/d in 2025**, which is below the historical trend of **1.2 mb/d**. Crude oil demand is expected to grow only **0.3 mb/d** due to tariff uncertainties and structural changes in China [10][18][79]. 4. **Non-OPEC Supply**: Non-OPEC crude oil supply is anticipated to increase by **0.7 mb/d in 2025**, driven by countries like the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina. Total oil liquids supply from non-OECD countries is expected to grow by **1.2 mb/d**, surpassing global demand growth [10][18][115]. 5. **OPEC Production**: OPEC is expected to announce a new quota that would unwind **2.2 mb/d** of voluntary cuts. Actual production levels are assumed to remain stable, leading to a projected surplus of **1.5 mb/d in Q4 2025** [10][23][160]. 6. **Refinery Demand**: There has been little to no growth in demand for refined products, which are key drivers of refinery crude demand. The last three months showed a flat demand trend for these products [18][85]. 7. **Gasoil/Diesel Market**: The market for gasoil and diesel is experiencing severe tightness, driven by refinery closures, low inventories, and logistical bottlenecks [34][36][40]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Storage Economics**: To facilitate oil inventory builds, the forward curve must create favorable storage economics, requiring a full contango scenario [10][31]. 2. **Global Demand Trends**: Global seaborne energy imports indicate softening oil demand, particularly in Europe, while China's oil demand is recovering but remains below late 2023 levels [75][88]. 3. **Investment Climate**: Capital expenditures in the oil sector have recovered to around **$500 billion**, with attractive prospective internal rates of return (IRRs) of approximately **20.7%** [131]. 4. **US Supply Dynamics**: The median break-even price for US shale remains around **$50/bbl**, indicating competitive economics despite a wide distribution of profitability among wells [134][139]. 5. **OPEC Compliance**: There is a growing divergence in estimates of OPEC production compliance, with some countries showing improved adherence to quotas while others do not [160][183]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the oil market.